LEGISLATIVE BY-ELECTIONS LEAVE OPPOSITION PARTIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000401

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF, DRL, INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR ECON ML
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE BY-ELECTIONS LEAVE OPPOSITION PARTIES
DEFLATED

REF: BAMAKO 00325


1. (SBU) Summary: On Sunday, March 26, Mali celebrated a
"Day of Democracy" to commemorate the 15th anniversary of
the 1991 uprising that overthrew former dictator Moussa
Traore. In Mopti and Bamako's fifth district, Democracy Day
coincided with legislative by-elections to fill two vacat
National Assembly seats. Regarded as the firs tangible
test of next year's presidential campaign, many interpreted
the results in Mopti, together with a remarkably low voter
turnout in Bamako, as a serious setback for opposition
leaders hoping to unseat President Amadou Toumani Toure
(ATT) in 2007. At an event in Bamako to mark the 1991
popular uprising, National Assembly President (and principal
opposition leader) Ibrahim Boubakar Keita (IBK) snubbed the
Prime Minister, likely out of irritation over his party's
allegations that government ministers intervened
inappropriately in the Mopti by-election in the days leading
up to the vote. In an extremely critical speech opening the
National Assembly's April session, IBK decried the state of
Malian democracy, as evidenced by the low voter turnout for
the partial elections. End summary.

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In Mopti, a Vote of Confidence for ATT
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2. (U) The March 26 legislative by-elections in ATT's home
region of Mopti generated particular interest among
political observers in Mali. Many believed that a strong
showing by the opposition Rally for Mali (RPM) on the
President's home turf would signal trouble for ATT and
cement RPM leader and National Assembly President Ibrahim
Boubacar Keita's (IBK) status as a serious presidential
challenger.


3. (U) In Mopti a coalition of 22 parties, including the
former ruling party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali
(ADEMA),lifted the Union for Republic and Democracy (URD)
to a landslide win over the RPM. According to official
results, the URD pulled off a first round victory with over
74% of the vote. The RPM was a distant second with less
than 19%. The voter turnout rate was 38%. One newspaper
summed up the election result and its implications with the
headline: "ATT Crushes IBK."


4. (U) Although the Mopti URD-ADEMA alliance received no
overt support from ATT or his government, the appearance of
five of ATT's cabinet Ministers in Mopti just days before
the March 26 vote triggered a protest by the RPM. Following
the vote, the RPM released list of election "irregularities"
and called on Mali's Constitutional Court to annul the
results. Many of the allegations appear to stem from what
the RPM claims was an unfair electoral intervention by the
five Ministers who were in Mopti just days before the
election, ostensibly to celebrate the opening of a local
cell phone company branch office. It is extremely unlikely
that the nine-member Constitutional Court would decide to
overturn the result given the relative haziness of the RPM's
fraud allegations and the enormous mandate handed to the
URD.

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No opposition votes in Mopti, no voters in Bamako
-------------- --------------


5. (U) In Bamako, the URD teamed up with the RPM and two
smaller parties to confront an ADEMA candidate backed by the
same coalition that had supported the URD in Mopti. Despite
widespread press coverage prior to the election, polling
places in Bamako's fifth district were deserted as the voter
participation rate slumped to less than 8%. Voter apathy
left the URD candidate with 32% and ADEMA with 23%. A
second round run-off is scheduled for April 9. The
lackluster turnout in Bamako was particularly disappointing
for opposition leaders who hoped a strong show of support
would signal that ATT's prospects for re-election in 2007
were not assured.


6. (U) Analysts attributed the low level of voter
participation in Bamako to a variety of reasons. Bamako's
fifth district is one of the city's largest and poorest with
large numbers of migrants whose ties and interests are with
other portions of the country. Many fifth district
residents may have seen the elections as meaningless given
high levels of unemployment, poverty and an absence of
economic opportunities. Since Deputies elected through the
by-elections must run again in 2007, the election may have

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simply failed to pique the interest of many in Bamako.
Scheduling by-elections to coincide with Mali's Day of
Democracy also depressed voter participation since much of
Bamako was mobilized for the Democracy Day celebrations.


7. (SBU) Comment: By-elections are hardly an indicator of
nationwide political trends, but IBK clearly feels his party
(and his own presidential ambitions) to be under some
pressure. At the March 26 annual commemoration ceremony in
Bamako of the popular uprising that ousted Malian dictator
Moussa Traore, IBK was a picture of pique over the alleged
irregularities in Mopti. He failed to arrive in time to
receive President Toure (a sine qua non of Malian protocol),
and then snubbed the Prime Minister, standing next to him at
the ceremony for 20 minutes without exchanging a word. Ten
days later, in an extremely critical speech opening the
April session of the National Assembly, IBK decried the
state of Malian democracy, calling the low turnouts an
indicator of a government that had lost its way. With
presidential and legislative elections a year away, and with
disappointing results from the two by-elections, IBK has
clearly decided to move into full campaign mode to salvage
his own and his party's prospects.
McCulley