WHEN POLITICS AND COINCIDENCE COLLIDE: MALI'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 001433

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR PINS PGOV ML
SUBJECT: WHEN POLITICS AND COINCIDENCE COLLIDE: MALI'S
THIRD LARGEST PARTY ENDORSES ATT

REF: BAMAKO 01361

Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)

1.(C) Summary: Mali's third largest party, the Union for
the Republic and Democracy (URD),has endorsed the
re-election bid of President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT). By
casting its lot with ATT rather than running a presidential
candidate of its own, the URD ended speculation that party
founder Soumaila Cisse, a political heavyweight who finished
second to ATT in 2002, might reverse his decision to sit out
the 2007 campaign. Cisse has passed the period since his
defeat as president of Commission of the West African
Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). With his term coming to
a close, ATT reportedly lobbied UEMOA to give Cisse a second
four year term, an outcome that may formally come to light
during a Heads of State conference in Senegal in January.
While no one has yet overtly linked the URD's endorsement
with ATT's efforts to ensure a second UEMOA mandate for
Cisse, the timing of the two events was likely no
coincidence. End Summary.

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A Personal Quid Pro Quo
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2.(C) On December 2 the URD chose to endorse ATT's
re-election bid rather than run a candidate of its own for
the 2007 presidential election. The announcement ended
speculation that URD founder Soumaila Cisse, who was ATT's
second round opponent during the 2002 presidential election,
was reconsidering his decision to sit out the 2007 campaign.
It also ended several months of negotiations between the URD,
ADEMA and ATT over political support in return for
Ministerial posts in a new ATT government. The URD, ADEMA
and ATT have been working since September to hammer out a
joint political "platform," now known as the Alliance for
Democracy and Progress (ADP),designed to catapult ATT to
victory in 2007. The URD, ADEMA and 12 other political
parties officially signed the ADP document - which appears to
be nothing more than a statement of mutual support for ATT's
re-election - on December 8.

3.(C) The URD originally intended to join the ADP in
November but hesitated following ADEMA vice-president
Soumeylou Boubey Maiga's decision to defy his own party's
leadership and enter the presidential race (reftel). Maiga's
defection from ADEMA, and the support he has subsequently
received from other prominent ADEMA members, have called into
question ADEMA's ability to deliver for ATT in 2007. Led by
Cisse and URD president and former prime minister Younoussi
Toure, the URD nonetheless decided to uphold its end of the
bargain. After creating the ADP on December 8, member
parties selected Younoussi Toure as the ADP president and
spokesperson.

4.(U) In an apparent response to the fractures within ADEMA,
both Cisse and Toure urged URD delegates to follow the
official party line. "My main concern was and still
remains," Cisse told his followers, "the cohesiveness and
unity of the party." According to the URD's communication
director, Modibo Camara, the decision also sent a message to
Rally for Mali (RPM) leader and National Assembly president
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK). "We had several bitter
experiences with that party," said Camara in reference to
past URD-RPM alignments. Camara said IBK's endorsement of
ATT over Cisse during the second round of the 2002
presidential election also figured into the URD's
calculations for 2007.

5.(C) Perhaps the single most important factor influencing
the URD's decision, however, was a call from ATT to UEMOA on
Cisse's behalf. ATT recently asked UEMOA to grant Cisse a
second four year term as president of the UEMOA commission.
According to one report, Cisse's chances of a second term are
strong thanks to ATT's backing. Mali apparently intends to
formally request a new mandate for Cisse during a Head of
State summit scheduled for January in Senegal.

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Comment
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6.(C) Soumaila Cisse is one of Mali's political
heavy-weights, having received more presidential votes in
2002 than IBK. Due to his position with the UEMOA, however,
Cisse has spent most of the time since the 2002 elections at
the commission's headquarters in Ouagadougou rather than in
Mali maintaining his political networks and connections.
Many believe Cisse is ATT's preferred successor for 2012,
provided ATT prevails in 2007. Cisse and the URD's decision

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to join ADEMA and support ATT in an apparent deal for
ministerial posts (and four more years for Cisse with UEMOA)
is not without risks, however. The URD and ADEMA apparently
already provided ATT with a short-list of potential ministers
several months ago. It remains unclear whether ATT intends
to see this part of his deal with ADEMA and the URD through.
ATT could conceivably use ADEMA's on-going implosion as a
pretext for continued inaction in regard to the allotment of
new ministerial positions. Disaffected members of the URD
could also follow Boubey Maiga's example and strike out on
their own, taking large portions of the party with them.
McCulley