RPM FANS FEARS THAT TOURE PLANS PRESIDENCY FOR LIFE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 001198

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN ECON ML
SUBJECT: RPM FANS FEARS THAT TOURE PLANS PRESIDENCY FOR LIFE

REF: BAMAKO 01154

Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER GLENN FEDZER FOR REASON 1.4 (b)

1.(C) SUMMARY: National Assembly President Ibrahim Boubacar
Keita (IBK) and his Rally for Mali (RPM) party have not
quietly accepted political isolation by President Amadou
Toumani Toure (ATT). His allies are responding with
accusations that ATT plans to replace Malian institutions
with cronyism and destroy the Malian tradition of political
consensus. One RPM party leader said ATT intends to stack
the National Assembly with friends in the next election with
the ultimate goal of revising the constitution to become
President for Life. The RPM is distributing bootleg copies
of a controversial book highly critical of ATT's cronyism and
the party's recent rhetoric likely reflects the approach the
RPM will take throughout the presidential campaign. Although
it is difficult to gauge IBK's popular support, there are no
signs that the RPM's efforts will rally anyone new to its
camp - or that any of ATT's allies would risk endangering
their own political futures by jumping ship. Nor have we
seen any evidence that ATT seeks to extend his mandate
indefinitely via a revision to the Constitution. End
Summary.

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Let the Marginalization Begin...
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2. (C) The Rally for Mali's (RPM) Secretary General Bocar
Treta says President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT) is "dangerous
for democracy, dangerous for Mali, and dangerous for the
region" because of ATT's "plan" to replace Mali's democratic
institutions with a system built around him and his cronies.
ATT's first move, according to Treta, was to marginalize the
RPM in the National Assembly and the National Electoral
Commission (CENI) (reftel). Treta expects that ATT will
eventually supplant a functioning party system in the
National Assembly by pushing trusted friends and allies into
seats during next year's Assembly elections, regardless of
these candidate's party affiliations. The new Assembly would
then have a majority of "Friends of Amadou" willing to amend
the constitution and extend ATT's presidential mandate
indefinitely.


3. (C) Treta says the RPM will continue to fight its
exclusion from the CENI in court, and refuse to take up the
two seats offered by other parties (reftel). Treta wants the
courts to invalidate the current CENI composition and replace
it with one that allocates the CENI's 1st Vice Presidential
post to the RPM. As for the National Assembly, Treta noted
that by law, leadership posts should reflect party
distribution, but the RPM has decided not to waste efforts on
an organization that will be replaced in a year, following
the 2007 legislative elections. Treta added that the RPM was
concerned over the Malian Government's failure to agree on a
unique ballot for the Presidential election or, as te GOM
claimed, to open the electoral rolls to public scrutiny.
(Note: Despite RPM claims to the contrary, the electoral
rolls were available at www.dgemali.com. End Note.)

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But the votes are out there
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4. (C) To stay relevant in Malian politics, Treta conceded
that the RPM needed allies in political circles and must
energize grass roots political supporters. Treta insisted
that the RPM's leader, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK),was far
more popular in the interior and among the more populous
Bambara speakers in southern Mali than ATT, and that
expatriate voters, particularly in France, would also back
IBK (Note: 500,000 of the expected 6.5 million voters
eligible to participate in the presidential balloting are
living outside of Mali). He claimed most Malians in France
were bitter because ATT had failed to extract more favorable
immigrant and visa concessions for them from the French
Government and would therefore vote overwhelmingly for IBK.


5. (C) Treta further piled on accusations that ATT
introduced regionalism into Malian politics (ATT is from
Mopti, to the north of Bamako) and planned to keep Mali under
the thumb of northerners "for the next thirty years."

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Even as "the Sphinx" rears its ugly head
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6. (C) Treta readily provided the Embassy a local copy of a
recently released book attacking ATT and his cronyism. The
controversial book, "ATT-cratie: la promotion d'un homme et
de son clan" (septel) has created a stir in the local press
for its harsh criticism of the President and many (but not

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all) of the ministers and advisors close to him. The book,
allegedly written by a former ATT minister using the name "Le
Sphinx," was initially available only in France but is now
being distributed in cheaply reproduced local versions by IBK
and the RPM. RPM party headquarters appeared to have at
least one box of the books.


7. (C) Comment: Treta's discourse reflects opposition
sentiment towards ATT, and no doubt is a preview of the
rhetoric the RPM and other opposition forces will use to
attack the President during and after the campaign. ATT's
evident strategy of isolating, and then politically
destroying, IBK is classic hard-ball politics. Casting
aspersions on ATT's long-term ambitions is equally typical
mud-slinging; it remains to be seen if the mud sticks in the
minds of the electorate. If true, it might prove more
effective at creating fractures among ATT's allies in the
long term, many who reportedly back ATT for the moment as the
best way to further their own political and presidential
ambitions, than rallying more support for the RPM.
McCulley