AZERBAIJAN CAUTIOUS AS IRAN CRACKS DOWN ON ETHNIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000758

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM IR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN CAUTIOUS AS IRAN CRACKS DOWN ON ETHNIC
AZERI DEMONSTRATIONS

REF: BAKU 475

Classified By: CDA Jason P. Hyland for Reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Azerbaijani society has taken a strong
interest in reports that Iranian security forces opened fire
May 22 on a demonstration of about 100,000 mostly
Azeri-Iranian students in the city of Tabriz, killing at
least ten. A flurry of Azerbaijani press reports has fanned
public interest. Members of the Azerbaijani parliament
expressed cautious concern about the "internal affairs" of
Iran while other Baku political commentators noted that the
protests are an indication of the frustration of
Azeri-Iranians and broader public discontent under the
clerical regime. A Baku human rights activist who has spoken
with students in Tabriz confirmed the deaths and told us many
other protests are planned in the coming days despite Iranian
efforts to quell them. For now, the GOAJ is maintaining
silence on the issue, undoubtedly wary of provoking a
powerful and already unfriendly neighbor. END SUMMARY.

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IRANIAN DEMONSTRATIONS GRAB AZERBAIJAN'S ATTENTION
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2. (U) On May 12, a children's supplement to an Iranian
newspaper affiliated with Iran's state news agency IRNA,
published a cartoon which likened Iran's large,
ethnically-Azeri population to cockroaches (in the cartoon, a
Persian-speaking boy repeated the word for cockroach in
different languages, prompting a cockroach to respond in
Azerbaijani). The cartoon sparked outrage in cities across
northern Iran and drew heavy press coverage in Azerbaijan.
(Note: Iran is home to approximately 16-30 million ethnic
Azeris, while Azerbaijan proper has a population of only
eight million.) The Government of Iran has since closed the
newspaper that published the cartoons and detained its
editor. However, Baku political commentators told PolFSN May
24 that the newspaper was not likely to be actually closed
but that this was the Iranian Government's effort to halt the
escalating protests by ethnic Azeri students.


3. (U) Azerbaijani press reports provided detailed
descriptions of a large demonstration which took place May 22
in Tabriz, the "capital" of Iran's Azeri community. Reports
suggest as many as 100,000 people joined the student-led
protest in Tabriz chanting "Long Live Azerbaijan" and "Away
with Fascism," while analysts in Azerbaijan have speculated
that the wave of demonstrations was assisted by ethnic Azeri
separatists. Press reports highlighted the actions of Iranian
security forces which opened fire on the demonstrators,
killing at least ten and wounding fifty after several hours
of unsuccessful efforts to break up the demonstrations.
Azerbaijani news stories also claim that Iranian security
forces raided student dormitories in Tabriz and other cities,
arresting between 100 and 150 students, and also that the
Iranian Government has suspended any and all public
assemblies in Tabriz. (Note: It is interesting to note that
Lider Television, which is extremely pro-government, has
given prominent coverage to the disturbances.)

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REACTION IN BAKU: CAUTIOUS CONCERN
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4. (U) Baku opposition newspapers have consistently reported
that Iranian authorities killed 20 or more persons in Tabriz,
a number disputed by more balanced newspapers which place the
number dead at between ten and twelve. During a May 23
session of the Azerbaijani Parliament, Civil Solidarity Party
leader Sabir Rustamkhanly addressed the protests cautiously,
noting that while Azerbaijan should not interfere in Iran's
internal affairs, the GOAJ cannot remain indifferent to the
fate of Azeris in Iran (Note: The Civil Solidarity Party,
chaired by former President Ayaz Mutalibov, has never been
known for fiery nationalism). Siyavush Novruzov, the deputy
executive secretary of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP)
cautioned members of parliament to be "careful with their
words." The GOAJ has not issued a public statement on the
cartoons or the subsequent wave of demonstrations;
Azerbaijani MFA Spokesman Tahir Tagizade told Charge May 24
that he does not expect the GOAJ to comment. However, on May
23, roughly 40 ethnic Azeri-Iranian students held a protest
in front of the Iranian Embassy in Baku and burned Iranian

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flags. Azerbaijani fringe groups advocating the unification
of all Azeris into a single state reportedly played a role in
this demonstration.


5. (C) Nasib Nasibli, a former Azerbaijani Ambassador to Iran
and noted scholar, told us that the cartoon and the large
demonstrations are indicative of the frustration felt by the
Azeri community in Iran under the Islamic regime. Nasibli
noted that while many ethnic Azeris hold positions of
prominence in Iranian government and society (Supreme Jurist
Ayatollah Khamenei is reportedly an ethnic Azeri, as is
President Ahmadinejad's wife),Azeri ethnicity is viewed
poorly by elements of society in Iran, evidenced by the
cartoon's underlying message. Mubariz Ahmadoglu, a Baku
political commentator known to have contacts in northern
Iran, said that he expected the protests to grow, not abate,
in the coming days. Nasibli speculated that this is the type
of protest Tehran fears could grow into a catalyst for
another revolution.


6. (C) Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabayev told
Emboff that if the reported deaths in Tabriz prove accurate,
the funerals ceremonies have the potential to escalate into
flashpoints of public outrage in Iran. Another Azerbaijani
political analyst, Ilgar Mammedov, affirmed that the
escalating protests represented a serious challenge to the
clerical regime and are an indication of broader public
dissatisfaction with the Iranian regime that goes beyond the
question at hand. Moreover, commentators noted that the
Azeri-Iranian community, although often viewed as
second-class citizens in Iran, were of vital importance to
Iran's domestic economy because the Azeri-Iranian community
controls the Tehran bazaar.

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HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST: MORE PROTESTS PLANNED
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7. (C) Prominent Baku-based human rights activist Novella
Jafaroglu told us she spoke with Azeri-Iranian youth NGO
leaders in Tabriz on May 23. They told her that Iranian
security forces had in fact killed between ten and twelve
people during their attempt to disrupt the May 22 protest.
Three of those killed, Jafaroglu noted, were believed to be
Persian-Iranians who joined the protests to express
solidarity with the Azeri-Iranian community. Jafaroglu
reported that her contact in Tabriz estimated between 250 and
300 persons were hospitalized in the violence. In addition,
Jafaroglu told us that banks, gas stations and cars were set
afire although the Tabriz students she spoke with denied
responsibility.


8. (C) Telephone lines to and from Tabriz have reportedly
been inoperable since May 23. This has hindered Jafaroglu's
communications. However, Jafaroglu reports that further
protests are planned for May 24 in Urmia, Ardabil, Maraga,
Zenjan, and Mian. News reports also state that the next
protest is scheduled for May 28 and that one million Azeris
from cities across Iran and from universities will travel to
Tehran to demonstrate against the cartoons. May 28 is also
the national day of Azerbaijan proper, saluting the
establishment of the first Azerbaijani republic (and the
first republic in the Islamic world) on that date in 1918.
It is unclear if this is coincidence or not.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The GOAJ traditionally takes a very cautious approach
to the Azeri ethnic issue in its relations with Iran, and we
do not expect this case to be any different. As these reports
indicate, and as the Iranian government's hysterical reaction
to comments about Azeri solidarity made at a conference of
Azerbaijani diaspora (reftel) suggest, this issue remains
extremely sensitive on the Iranian side; while many
Azerbaijanis may be upset at the mistreatment of the Azeri
community in Iran, their primary expectation is to keep
relations with their volatile neighbor to the south on an
even keel.
HYLAND