IRANIAN PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD FULL OF BRAVADO AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000725

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PINR IR AJ
SUBJECT: IRANIAN PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD FULL OF BRAVADO AT
ECO SUMMIT

REF: BAKU 704

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jason P. Hyland per 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Azerbaijan's Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor
Novruz Mammadov told A/DCM that Iranian President Ahmadinejad
was full of bravado at the May 5 Economic Cooperation
Organization (ECO) Summit in Baku (ref). In informal
conversations with other regional leaders before the ECO
meeting, Ahmadinejad boasted that Iran's nuclear policies
were on the right track. "We have them where we want them,"
Mammadov reported that Ahmadinejad said of the Europeans and
the U.S. According to Mammadov, Ahmadinejad also dismissed
the potential impact of sanctions against Iran as well as the
possibility of military strikes against Iran. "If we are
attacked, we will strike back," Ahmadinejad reportedly told
the ECO heads of state while waiting to begin the May 5
meeting. Mammadov commented that while standing around and
chatting with regional counterparts, Ahmadinejad used exactly
the same tone and blustery rhetoric that he employs in formal
speaking events. In the formal ECO meeting, however,
Ahmadinejad did not address Iran's ongoing conflict with the
international community over its nuclear programs.


2. (C) Mammadov told A/DCM May 17 that Iran's nuclear
programs and the international community's possible response
to the programs were raised in bilateral meetings and side
discussions at the ECO Summit. Both Afghanistan's President
Karzai and Pakistani Prime Minister Shuakat Aziz expressed
concern to Azerbaijani President Aliyev over the possibility
of a military strike on Iran. Mammadov said that they feared
such a strike would have disastrous repercussions in the
Muslim world, further souring popular perceptions of the
West. Mammadov said President Aliyev shares these concerns.


3. (C) Contrary to speculation in the local press, Mammadov
said that during Ahmadinejad's bilateral meeting with
President Aliyev, Ahmadinejad did not bring up Aliyev's
recent trip to Washington or the more general question of
U.S.-Azerbaijani relations. Mammadov cautioned, however,
that he did not know what was said in the two Presidents'
five-minute tete-a-tete meeting. (The local press has been
rife with speculation that Iran would use the April 19-20
visit of its Defense Minister and Ahmadinejad's May 3 trip to
Baku -- book-ended around Aliyev's April 25-28 visit to
Washington -- to pressure Azerbaijan on its close ties to the
U.S.) Mammadov also refuted press reports that Ahmadinejad
would be invited back to Baku for a bilateral visit in July,
stating that Azerbaijan had no plans to invite him for an
official visit "at this time."
HYLAND