Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAKU701
2006-05-11 11:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN'S RERUN ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN QUIET,

Tags:  PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL AJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1158
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHKB #0701/01 1311117
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111117Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0318
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000701 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S RERUN ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN QUIET,
ELECTION DAY KEY


Classified By: CDA JASON HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000701

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S RERUN ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN QUIET,
ELECTION DAY KEY


Classified By: CDA JASON HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a May 10 briefing, ODIHR Election
Observation Head of Mission Geert Aherns reported that the
campaign period for ten parliamentary rerun elections to be
held on May 13 appeared to be proceeding fairly well, in
comparison with the November election. ODIHR,s assessment
corresponds with what we have seen over the past two months.
Campaigns have remained low-key, and reports of Government
interference in the process appear to be low. ODIHR
remains frustrated that neither election commissions nor
candidates appear to be following prescribed procedures for
handling complaints. We have repeatedly urged the GOAJ at
the highest levels to conduct free and fair elections, most
recently in the Charge's May 8 call on CEC Chairman Panahov.
We have also been engaged through an active public diplomacy
campaign and through training of candidates, observers, and
election commission officials. The true test will be on
election day, and in particular the vote count, which was the
weakest link on November 6. Domestic observers promise to be
out in droves (more than 5,000 observers are registered for a
mere 343 polling stations) and Post will coordinate and
communicate both with other international community observers
and domestic observer organizations. END SUMMARY.

CAMPAIGNS ACTIVE, BUT LOW-KEY
--------------


2. (SBU) According to ODIHR and Central Election Commission
(CEC) reports, a total of 125 candidates remain, down from
the 158 who had been initially registered. 78 candidates are
independents and 47 are members of parties, although only
nine candidates were actually nominated by their respective
parties (the rest were self-nominated). In a May 10
briefing, ODIHR Head of Mission Ambassador Geert Ahrens said
that in his own opinion, the election campaign appeared to be
proceeding better than in the fall, mostly because no parties
had applied for mass demonstrations. (GOAJ restrictions on
freedom of assembly were one of the major pitfalls of the
2005 campaign.) According to the Ministry of Internal

Affairs, candidates throughout the country have held around
1500 meetings with voters, most by independent candidates.


3. (SBU) Ahrens categorized the campaign as low key, but said
that many candidates are campaigning actively. Most local
government authorities had allocated sites for posters and
from the anecdotal evidence compiled by the core team, most
shopkeepers are allowed to post whichever candidate poster
they choose. Ahrens remarked that in particular, campaigns
in Zaqatala and Tovuz had been lively. (Prominent opposition
leaders are running in both of these districts -- Musavat's
Arif Hajili in Zaqatala and Justice Party founder Ilyas
Ismayilov in Tovuz.)

MEDIA SCENE QUIET
--------------


4. (SBU) ODIHR does not have a media expert on its staff this
time but is carefully watching news coverage of the election.
ODIHR reported that the members of the Central Election
Commission have been giving weekly interviews to public
television and there is sporadic nationwide news coverage of
events. Candidates are also buying time on regional TV
stations, although rates vary widely and overall are
relatively high in comparison with normal rates for buying
advertisement time. Unlike the November 2005 election
period, parties and candidates are not allowed free airtime
on national TV because the electoral code prohibits
candidates for regional elections from obtaining free airtime
on national channels.

OFFICIAL INTERFERENCE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS
--------------


5. (SBU) Ahrens reported that the extent of local
authorities' interference into the campaign, including use of
administrative resources to help out "favored" candidates, is
difficult to assess. (Local government interference in the
campaign was another major problem in the 2005 campaign.)
Local government officials all assure the ODIHR team they are
not interfering, and report that President Aliyev has
reiterated his instructions from the 2005 elections not to
interfere, including through personal phone calls to local
officials. However, opposition candidates in most
constituencies have complained about interference to help out
"favored" candidates. The "favored" candidates are alleged
to be both ruling party and independent candidates, depending
on the race.


6. (SBU) The ODIHR mission relayed that in Jalilabad
constituency 69, candidates and election commission officials

BAKU 00000701 002 OF 002


confirmed that a "pyramid scheme" had been deployed,
purportedly to boost voter turnout in the region. Opposition
candidates, however, maintained that the network was devised
to ensure voters knew which candidate was the GOAJ's
"favored" candidate. On May 10, apparently, the alleged
original "favored" candidate called ODIHR, together with some
of his colleagues, to complain that the network was being
used to promote a different candidate now. ODIHR officials
said they suspect the same scheme is being used elsewhere,
but they have no firm evidence that the tactic is being used
to illegal means. ODIHR also noted that in the Aghdam
constituency, an IDP district that abuts the Line of Contact,
authorities allegedly have threatened to cut allowances to
the IDP population if the "wrong" candidate wins the seat.


7. (C) In a May 8 meeting, the Charge urged Central Election
Commission Chairman Mezahir Panahov to ensure the May 13
rerun elections were conducted in a fair and transparent
manner. Panahov said that following GOAJ actions to punish
fraud in the November elections, local government authorities
feel "threatened" and understand that interference into the
campaign is a serious issue. They now understand that they
will be punished if they take such actions. Panahov said
that the CEC was concerned about races in Zaqatala and
Sumgayit and would watch both carefully.

COMPLAINTS PROCESS UNRESOLVED
--------------


8. (SBU) Several members of the ODIHR team expressed
frustration that the authorities did not seem to be taking
steps to improve the elections complaints process, roundly
criticized, since November. They said, however, that
opposition candidates also have not followed the complaint
procedure as spelled out in the election code. Candidates
have preferred to file oral complaints and often appeal above
the constituency level. (All complaints should be lodged
with the constituency first). Yet, the ODIHR team noted that
election commissions routinely failed to act on complaints
filed, likely explaining why candidates choose to circumvent
the prescribed process. As of May 5, ODIHR said the CEC
reported it had received 73 complaints and constituency
election commissions (ConEcs) had received 65. Most of the
complaints reportedly pertained to official interference,
candidates bribing voters, and the composition or actions of
election commissions. The CEC, however, had only taken
official decisions on 21 of those 73 complaints. ConEcs
apparently had ruled officially on only 18 complaints.
Ahrens noted that overall, it was difficult to assess to what
extent the complaints process failed due to incompetence (on
both sides) or more direct motives to hijack the process.

MASSIVE DOMESTIC OBSERVER PRESENCE LIKELY
--------------


9. (SBU) Domestic observer interest is high again, with over
5,000 observers registered by the CEC and ConEcs. (There are
343 polling stations between the ten constituencies). Only
103 international observers were registered, with the CIS
observer mission coming in with the highest figure of 29.
Locally, only the British, Norwegian, and US embassies will
be deploying observers on election day. Post will deploy ten
election observation teams to cover every constituency on
election day and will coordinate closely with the British and
Norwegian embassies. (Neither the British Embassy nor Post
will cover the territory of Aghdam, but will cover IDP
polling stations for this district in Baku and Zaqatala).

COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) We have remained actively engaged in the election
process to ensure the reruns are conducted in a free and fair
manner. We have urged the GOAJ at the highest levels and in
regular meetings with the CEC to ensure the process is
transparent and that those who commit fraud are punished
accordingly. We have also undertaken an active public
diplomacy campaign to inform voters of our support for
democratization and encourage their participation in the
process. Programatically USAID partner organizations have
trained observers, candidates, and election commission
officials, and IRI will be conducting an exit poll on
election day. We will deploy USG observers on election day,
in coordination with the international community, and
carefully watch the conduct of the balloting and the vote
count. We will report septel on May 13 and afterward on the
overall assessment of the rerun elections.
HYLAND