PREPARATIONS FOR PARLIAMENTARY RERUNS UNDERWAY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000700

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL AJ
SUBJECT: PREPARATIONS FOR PARLIAMENTARY RERUNS UNDERWAY IN
AZERBAIJAN'S ZAQATALA

Classified By: CDA JASON HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The May 13 parliamentary rerun race in the
northwestern region of Zaqatala promises to the most
interesting of an otherwise low-key campaign. Prominent
opposition leader Arif Hajili is running in a field of six
other serious candidates that includes a government ruling
YAP candidate that allegedly has benefited from inappropriate
government support. The local authorities -- including a
newly appointed ExCom (local governor) and newly appointed
Constituency Election Commission Chair -- promised a fair
race, but two candidates, the Election Monitoring Center's
long term observer and a civil society representative
reported that local authorities had been interfering in the
race. Post will send an observer team back to Zaqatala on
election day to monitor the conduct of the balloting and the
vote count. END SUMMARY.

NEW EXCOM PROMISES FAIR PROCESS
--------------


2. (C) EmbOffs traveled to Azerbaijan's northern region of
Zaqatala May 1-2 to assess the pre-election environment.
EmbOffs started the trip by meeting with Asif Asgarov, the
appointed regional governor (ExCom) for Zaqatala, who was
named to the post three months ago. He replaced the previous
ExCom, who had been fired for his role in election fraud in
November. Asgarov was formerly a deputy minister of Youth,
Sports, and Tourism and apparently, a close friend of now
Culture Minister Abulfaz Garayev. Asgarov told us he had
twice been head of the Azerbaijani delegation to the
Olympics; given President Aliyev's personal interest in
sports and the Olympics in particular, this is a strong
signal that he is well connected with the ruling elite.
(NOTE: While the ExCom himself is new, contacts told us that
he has not replaced any of the staff below him).


3. (C) Asgarov did not appear to know much about the
development or political life of Zaqatala, mainly giving
short answers to in-depth questions. He said that he would
ensure the elections are run in a free and fair manner and
that the campaign had gone smoothly, with no restrictions.
He called his population "politically conscious" and
predicted a high turnout. The main issues of concern to
voters, he indicated, were gas and electricity supplies
(which he indicated he had already largely solved) and
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He also told us
that economic development was not a major concern of his
citizens, given the growth in the economy recently. (Civil
society leaders disputed this point, saying that people from
the region increasingly are seeking employment opportunities
in Baku or abroad). Asked what his greatest challenge in the
past three months had been, he simply responded that he had
no problems or major challenges -- "I am a soldier of my
president."

CONEC CHAIRMAN ALSO PREDICTS SMOOTH ELECTION DAY...
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4. (SBU) Zaqatala Villages' ConEc 110 is chaired by Fikrat
Mustafayev, who headed a precinct election commission in
Zaqatala City ConEc 111 during the November election. He
told PolOff he had been cited for running a model election
and was confident the May rerun would go well. He indicated
he didn't have a good grasp of why ConEc 110 had gone so
badly in November, but surmised it was probably due to poor
training of election commission members and lack of awareness
on the part of voters. He said his role was in part to
prevent fraud this time around, and said commission members
at every level were aware of their roles and
responsibilities. He also predicted higher voter turnout,
due mainly to the "intense campaign" amongst the candidates
and the high level of voter interest he had witnessed.


5. (SBU) The Chairman said there had been few complaints thus
far, although two candidates (Musavat candidate Arif Hajili
and independent candidate Elnura Madatova) had complained
that the ConEc was restricting their freedom of assembly
rights. The ConEc chairman dismissed these complaints,
saying that in one case the candidate had not given
sufficient notice of a planned rally and that in general the
candidates tried to hold public meetings in Zaqatala proper,
which is not within the boundary of the constituency. He
also indicated he was looking into telegrams he had received
complaining that Hajili was inciting ethnic clashes through
nationalistic speeches on his paid airtime. (The ExCom also
referenced this situation, which to us sounds suspect -- the
complaints apparently all contain the same text. The CEC
took up this issue during its May 5 session and it appears
the complaint will be disregarded.) The chairman
pre-emptively assured us the ExCom was not interfering in the
process and has been helpful to the ConEc, including ensuring

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all its technical needs are met. (The meeting was a
difficult to conduct; while the ConEc chairman was happy to
sit and answer our questions, he almost spent more time
arranging tea and snacks than actually talking with us).

...BUT EMC THINKS OTHERWISE
--------------


6. (SBU) The Election Monitoring Center's (EMC) long term
observer (LTO) for the ConEc painted a dramatically different
picture of the election campaign. He indicated that while
the observers themselves had only been witness to a few
instances of violations, they had heard sufficient complaints
from candidates and seen enough evidence to be fairly
pessimistic about the chances for a clean election day. He
predicted "lots of fraud" during election day and during the
vote count, based on interference by the ExCom, his deputies,
and the municipal councils to date. He indicated that even
though the former ExCom had been fired for his interference,
the new ExCom's interference in favor of the ruling Yeni
Azerbaijan Party candidate was much more obvious than any
actions taken by the previous official. (This was a
complaint we have heard from a variety of sources both in
Zaqatala and in Baku). In a later conversation with civil
society activists, one card-carrying YAP member relayed the
same information.


7. (SBU) The EMC LTO also indicated that while candidates
have been pressured to withdraw and a few actually had
withdrawn, the candidacy of the YAP member had been illegally
restored 20 days after he withdrew (The CEC has only three
days to restore a person's candidacy). He said that out of
the seven candidates currently running, only four were
serious candidates -- the YAP candidate, Musavat member Arif
Hajili, and two independents. He predicted that in a vote
count, the balloting would be fairly close between Hajili and
the YAP candidate, with the others falling significantly
behind. Overall, though, he said turnout would likely only
be around 30 percent. The voters are tired, he said, and
"tired of their votes being stolen."

CANDIDATES COMPLAIN
--------------


8. (SBU) Although PolOff extended an invitation to all seven
candidates running, only Hajili and the independent Hajibey
Ibrahimov came to the meeting; the YAP candidate confirmed
but never surfaced. Hajili and Ibrahimov primarily were
interested in describing the various forms of intimidation
and pressure the local authorities had put on their campaigns
and their families. Their stories largely coincided with
EMC's, although they both displayed far more frustration.
Both Hajili and Ibrahimov indicated local authorities have
used interference tactics including giving political speeches
during Friday afternoon prayers in the mosques, tearing down
posters, instructing government employees for whom to vote,
and telling voters not to attend candidate meetings other
than those run by the YAP candidate.


9. (SBU) Ibrahimov, a local entrepreneur known for his
charity work, said he was asked to run by a number of
citizens after the November election was canceled due to
fraud. He relayed that the voters had said they had
originally voted for an opposition candidate in November, but
their votes had been stolen. They asked Ibrahimov to run
with the hopes that the authorities would not interfere in
his campaign. Ibrahimov told us that he has been pressured
to withdraw, including by the ExCom himself. He indicated he
had little hope the election would be fair and appeared
disappointed with the entire process.


10. (SBU) During a meeting with major opposition parties,
PolOff spent most of the 90 minutes defending US policy
towards Azerbaijan's democratization and explaining why it
was important to participate in the process. The party
representatives were frustrated by the amount of fraud seen
in recent elections and the restrictions they face as
regional opposition members, frequently comparing the
situation to that in Belarus.

VOTERS RELATIVELY DISINTERESTED
--------------


11. (SBU) While the ExCom and ConEc chairman professed voter
interest in the race, it was difficult for us to verify those
claims. Posters were up around town, but not in the massive
quantities seen last November throughout most of Azerbaijan.
We did, however, see a number of posters for Hajili, in
addition to the ruling party candidate. Most voters seemed
to be paying little interest; there was little evidence
around town that an election was taking place in ten days.
We did not see any voter education posters, in contrast to

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November, nor did most citizens seem to be talking about the
campaign. Additionally, candidates and EMC reported that
voter disinterest was high, mostly due to sheer election
fatigue. However, as outsiders, it is difficult to assess
with certainty the amount of voter interest until election
day, when voter turnout numbers are released.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (SBU) With prominent opposition leader Arif Hajili
running, a new ExCom, and a new ConEc, the May 13 rerun race
in Zaqatala is perhaps the most salient barometer for the
integrity of the reruns. We will send an observer team back
to the ConEc on May 13 to monitor the conduct of the
balloting and vote counting and will report septel on
election night and during the following week our findings and
analysis about election day.
HYLAND