AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION REMAINS FOCUSED ON 2005

UNCLAS BAKU 000538

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PINR PGOV PREL AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION REMAINS FOCUSED ON 2005
ELECTIONS


1. (SBU) On April 3, EUR DAS Matt Bryza held a roundtable
meeting with Azadliq Bloc leaders Ali Kerimli, Lala Shovket,
and Sardar Jalaloglu along with Musavat chairman Isa Gambar.
Almost to the exclusion of any other topic, the Azadliq bloc
leaders clearly remained focused on the November 2005
parliamentary elections. Kerimli and Jalaloglu asked Bryza
repeatedly about the USG-funded exit poll, claiming that the
selection of constituencies was not random and that there had
been a conspiracy in the poll's delayed results. The two
also resuscitated charges that one of the local partners of
PA Consulting was biased toward the government and therefore
skewed the results of the exit poll. All three of the
Azadliq leaders also claimed that President Aliyev was more
brutal during the campaign and election than Belarusian
President Alexander Lukashenko, with Shovket claiming at one
point that the GOAJ was headed in the direction of North
Korea and Turkmenistan. The three also told Bryza how
difficult it was for them, as the leaders of the "democratic
forces," to continue to attract supporters and keep up the
fight in the face of the West's alleged declining support for
democracy.


2. (SBU) Bryza said he was aware how difficult it was for the
opposition leaders. He reaffirmed USG support for the
opposition's efforts to advance democracy, and reiterated the
U.S. would keep pressing the GOAJ and President Aliyev to
strengthen democracy and hold free and fair election reruns
on May 13 as a necessary step in elevating U.S. - Azerbaijan
elections. However, the three Azadliq bloc leaders countered
with hyperbolic claims that Azerbaijan was as undemocratic as
North Korea was. Bryza also stated, along with DCM, that
there was nothing sinister about the conduct of the exit
poll; it had been an objective, transparent measure of the
election in the 65 districts in which it was run and had
spurred some GOAJ action when fraud was found. Gambar,
speaking last, told Bryza that his party would partake in the
May rerun elections, and therefore chose to focus on the
Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations rather than the November
election. Bryza responded that it appeared the preparation
work that had been undertaken by all sides over the past two
years was beginning to bear fruit and that the chances for a
settlement remained real.


3. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared this message.
HARNISH