UPDATE ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH: CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000517

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND EUR/SNEC

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS MOPS ASEC AJ
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH: CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS
CONTINUE

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (U) Ceasefire violations continued over the last ten
days, as eleven violations were registered and OSCE
monitoring had to be stopped because of the firing.
Militant rhetoric on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continued
from senior GOAJ officials, including President Aliyev, who
said that the situation could be resolved (by force) at any
time if Azerbaijan so chose. However, both the President
and the Foreign Minister reiterated their commitments to the
peaceful negotiation process. Below is Embassy Baku's
snapshot reporting on Nagorno-Karabakh related incidents and
statements in Azerbaijan.

CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS CONTINUE, OSCE HALTS LOC MONITORING
-------------- --------------


2. (U) In total there were eleven ceasefire violations along
the line of contact between March 25 and April 3. On March
25, shots were fired near Aghdam and Gazakh; March 27 near
Gazakh and Tovuz; March 29 near Tartar and Jabrail; on March
30 again near Tovuz; and on April 3 near Fizuli and Aghdam.
Snipers reportedly killed one Azerbaijani soldier on March
30 and another soldier on April 3 in the Fizuli firings.
The firings near Fizuli also wounded one soldier.
According to the GOAJ Ministry of Defense's press office,
this brings the number of Azerbaijani soldiers killed along
the line of contact (LOC) to seven during 2006.


3. (U) Additionally, shots fired from the Armenian side on
March 29 near Tartar interrupted the OSCE's monitoring of
the LOC, according to the Azerbaijani press. (We are
following up with OSCE officials to verify the story.)


4. (U) Separate from the LOC violations, three Azerbaijani
soldiers were injured by landmines during the week. One
soldier reportedly stepped on a landmine and two others were
injured in their attempts to help him. In addition, one
Azerbaijani soldier captured by the Armenian side was
repatriated during the week under the auspices of the ICRC.


5. (SBU) During the week the press also carried a comment by
the International Crisis Group's Project Director Sabine
Frazier that in 2005, LOC firings results in around 90
casualties from both sides. The GOAJ Ministry of Defense
told EmbOff that half that number of Azerbaijani citizens
may have been killed, but the MOD could not give a specific
number of civilians killed last year.

PRESIDENT AND MFA COMMITTED TO PEACE, BUT
DO NOT RULE OUT RESOLUTION BY FORCE
--------------


6. (U) On March 27 President Aliyev stated Azerbaijan could
liberate the occupied territories at any time if it so
chose. He said Azerbaijan's position of insisting the
country's territorial integrity be respected had not changed
and that the GOAJ would continue to participate in
negotiations. However, he also said that should peaceful
negotiations not yield results, the GOAJ will have to
"change its policies." He stated that "Armenia should know
that we are capable to solve the problem militarily" and
that not only is it a country's sovereign right to increase
its defense expenditures, but that it is "natural" for a
country engaged in a military conflict and with its
sovereignty violated to do so.


7. (U) Similarly, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov also
commented on March 27 that Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations
within the framework of the Prague Process must be
continued. However, the Foreign Minister also did not rule
out "other measures" should the dialogue be fruitless,
including the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial
integrity through force. He also commented that recent
firings along the LOC are simply a "diversion" by the
Government of Armenia and that recent statements by Foreign
Minister Oskanian are not meant to be taken seriously, but
rather are simply for the benefit of Armenia's domestic
audience.

FOREIGN MINISTER MAY ACCEPT N-K'S PARTICIPATION IN TALKS
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Mammadyarov did, however, say that the GOAJ might
accept the participation of N-K's Armenian community in the
negotiations if that community accepts Azerbaijan's
territorial integrity, accepts Baku as its capital, agrees

BAKU 00000517 002 OF 002


that its citizenship shall be Azerbaijani, and agrees to
live under the rules of the Azerbaijan Constitution. At the
same time, Mammadyarov commented that he does not believe
the GOAM wants this community's participation in the
negotiations.

PRESS REPORTS ON A/S FRIED'S REMARKS
--------------


9. (U) During the week the Azerbaijani press also carried
the remarks of EUR A/S Daniel Fried on the conflict. The
press in Azerbaijan quoted him as saying that the USG is not
pressuring either Azerbaijan or Armenia on the issue of
settling the N-K conflict because a resolution needs to suit
all sides. The press also carried his comments that the USG
is providing aid to Azerbaijan for security purposes, along
with his caveat that the funds cannot be used against
Armenia and will be channeled to fighting terror. The
Azerbaijani press noted from the Armenian press that the USG
provides equal military assistance to both sides because it
is also important to provide for Armenia's safety.

HARNISH