PRESIDENT ALIYEV LOOKS TO THE FUTURE OF AZERBAIJAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000430

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SNEC AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ECON ENRG MOPS AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV LOOKS TO THE FUTURE OF AZERBAIJAN


Classified By: Ambassador Reno L. Harnish III per 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with EUR A/S Fried on March
14, President Aliyev said that the U.S.-Azerbaijan
relationship remains strong and reaffirmed Azerbaijan,s
westward orientation. Aliyev expressed concern about
the situation of ethnic Azeris in Georgia asked A/S Fried
to raise the issue there. On domestic issues, Aliyev said
that after 15 years of energy sector development, Azerbaijan
now had to use oil revenues wisely, reduce poverty and avoid
&Dutch Disease.8 A/S Fried urged Aliyev to create space for
the democratic process in Azerbaijan and to ensure jailed
ex-Ministers Ali Insanov and Farhad Aliyev have a transparent
and fair trail. Aliyev said the trial would be soon, open
and transparent. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On March 14, EUR Assistant Secretary Fried,
Ambassador Harnish, EUR/SNEC Special Negotiator Mann,
EUR/CARC Director Rood, and EUCOM Colonel Anderson met with
President Aliyev on a wide range of issues. (Nagorno-Karabakh
issues reported septel.) A/S Fried began by noting that
Azerbaijan's opportunities outweighed its problems. All the
country's problems, whether the need to deepen democracy,
reform economically, or solve N-K, were manageable, he said.

A Crucial Time
--------------


3. (C) President Aliyev underscored his belief that after 15
years of energy development, Azerbaijan had reached an
important juncture. The major question, he said, was how not
to spend the oil revenue in a way that resulted in
macroeconomic
instability. He stressed that Azerbaijani society was
"stable," with 340,000 jobs created and a 20 percent
decrease in poverty in the past two years. He stressed
that politically, he and the ruling YAP party were in a
strong position. It was not his fault, he argued, that the
opposition was weak and fractured. Following the breakup
of the tenuous coalition of opposition parties after the
November election, he noted, the opposition had turned to
blame the U.S. for its lack of success.


4. (C) Internationally, Aliyev looked to the West,
stressing that he valued relations with the U.S.
Sandwiched between "two elephants" in Iran and Russia,
Aliyev believed that Black and Caspian Sea cooperation were
important issues for global security. As Azerbaijan
increased its international involvement, perhaps its
Chairmanship of the Foreign Ministers Conference of the OIC
could also prove useful to the West. While N-K was the GOAJ's
fundamental international issue, he said, the treatment of
ethnic Azeris living in Georgia was of growing concern.
Many ethnic Azeris there, Aliyev claimed, were dissatisfied
with
their lack of ability to own land. While Azerbaijan "could
not afford problems" in relations with Georgia, Aliyev also
noted that between five and six ethnic Azerbaijanis had
been killed in Georgia and asked that A/S Fried raise the
issue during his stopover in Georgia. A/S Fried agreed.

SECURITY ISSUES
--------------


5. (S) A/S Fried noted that the USG looked to deepen its
relationship with Azerbaijan across the board. DFM
Azimov's upcoming visit to the U.S. for Pol-Mil talks would
be an important opportunity for dialogue on Iran. Military
cooperation continued to deepen, and Colonel Anderson noted
USG and Turkish interest in rehabilitating Nasosnaya
airbase as a refueling stop. A EUCOM study had estimated a
need for USD 36 million to fully upgrade the airbase and
Azerbaijan should consider funding the project in addition to
U.S. assistance.

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS
--------------


6. (C) Turning to Azerbaijan,s politics, A/S Fried noted
his
satisfaction that some opposition MPs had taken seats
won during the November parliamentary election. Common
understanding among political forces in Azerbaijan is an
important goal, he said; presidential leadership was
necessary to create a "space" for the democratic process.

BAKU 00000430 002 OF 002


Fried also asked for an update on the trials of two
ministers first detained in October 2005.


7. (C) President Aliyev noted that which parties the West
appeared to support influenced public opinion in
Azerbaijan. While he expressed personal dislike for
opposition leader Isa Gambar, Aliyev was nonetheless
pleased Gambar,s Musavat party had decided to take its seats
in parliament following the November election and shared A/S
Fried's disappointment that others had vacated their seats.
On the detention cases of former Minister of Economic
Development Farhad Aliyev and Minister of Health Ali Insanov,
President Aliyev questioned why Western interest seemed to
focus on Farhad Aliyev. Obviously uncomfortable, he
indicated that trials would begin "soon." However, President
Aliyev claimed the two ex-ministers were not "political
people,"
but government workers. He could not understand why the cases
had drawn so much attention, noting that a visiting EU
Commissioner had raised the issue as well, but had pressed
only
on Farhad Aliyev's behalf. Nevertheless, President Aliyev
promised an open and transparent trial for both men.


8. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this message.

HARNISH