AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS PLANS WITH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000317

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM KDEM ASEC PGOV PREL PINR IR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS PLANS WITH
AMBASSADOR

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During separate mid-February meetings with
Ambassador, three prominent opposition leaders discussed
their plans for party development and election strategies
this year. While Ali Kerimli's Popular Front has
reconstituted the Azadliq Bloc as a political bloc (without
Musavat) and will boycott the May rerun elections, the party
intends to remain active by holding public discussion forums
on issues important to Azerbaijan's development. Kerimli
also asked for the international community's assistance to
push the GOAJ on democracy and confront it on its missteps.
Isa Gambar, chairman of Musavat party, stated that his party
would seek to build a broader base of support in advance of
the May reruns, in which Musavat will participate. Gambar
also spoke of his concern over Iran's nuclear proliferation
intentions, and asked that the West not forget about Iran's
northern neighbor. Azerbaijan National Independence Party's
Etibar Mammedov focused his comments to the ambassador on his
party's internal divisions. Mammedov maintained that despite
the current chairman's power grab, he remains the rightful
leader of ANIP and will guide decisions for the party,
including participation in the May rerun elections. END
SUMMARY.

KERIMLI: DEMOCRATIC STRUGGLE MUST CONTINUE
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2. (SBU) Popular Front Party (PFP) Chairman Ali Kerimli
expressed disappointment about the lost opportunities
resulting from the November parliamentary elections, but
resolved to continue pushing for democratic development
(despite the fact that his party will boycott the May
elections). To fill the gaps of public discourse left by the
"rubber stamp Parliament," he reported that PFP would hold
numerous discussions throughout the year with the
participation of a number of actors on everything from the
oil revenues to election code and system reforms. He also
said his party will increase its activity in the regions to
attract more supporters and would work with the international
community to increase its efforts on democratization in
Azerbaijan. Finally, Kerimli said the party would continue
to struggle for freedom of assembly.


3. (SBU) Ambassador responded that he was pleased PFP would
continue party-building activities this year and detailed
several USAID-sponsored programs focused on democratic
development. Ambassador cautioned that these programs were
not intended to produce immediate results, but rather to
empower citizens with the knowledge and ideas needed to build
a vibrant, democratic society for themselves. Kerimli
acknowledged that it was the role of Azerbaijanis, not
outsiders, to build democracy. However, he told Ambassador
that programs would not be effective unless the USG worked on
three key objectives first. He encouraged the Ambassador to
look at the obstacles to democracy and try to overcome those
obstacles (such as falsified elections) by directly
confronting the GOAJ on those issues. He also said that the
opposition and the GOAJ needed to be able to build a
relationship through dialogue, and that the USG should
support truly independent media. Ambassador responded that
Kerimli's points were largely accurate and they were areas in
which the USG has been and would continue to be active.

GAMBAR: SEEKING THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE
--------------


4. (SBU) Musavat chairman Isa Gambar also gave a broad
overview to Ambassador of his party's plan for the coming
year. He said the party would focus on unifying Musavat's
message with society and strengthening ties with the
international community. Musavat also plans to participate
in both Parliament and the May 13 rerun elections. Gambar
asserted that "more than 50 percent of society" did not favor
Musavat's participation in Parliament and the reruns, but
said this was due to people's distrust of Parliament. He
decided to allow his party to participate in parliament in
hopes of being able to convince the public it was the right
thing to do. In a thinly veiled criticism of Kerimli, Gambar
added that certain "forces" are trying to use the decision to
weaken the party by pointing out so-called inconsistencies.
Gambar asserted, though, that Musavat has not been
inconsistent and has remained faithful to both its supporters
and its platform.


5. (SBU) Changing topics, Gambar remarked that his party had
always been interested in a democratic and liberal Iran. He
said, however, that the situation had become dangerous with
Iran's desire for nuclear weapons. Gambar said that nuclear
proliferation would pose a direct threat to Azerbaijan,
limiting its independence through the pressure Iran would be

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able to exert on the GOAJ. The hand of Iran in Azerbaijan
was already evident, he said, as evidenced by Iran's attempts
to influence opinion both on Iraq and Prophet Mohammed
cartoons. He said he favored resolving the Iran crisis
through peaceful negotiations, but time was running out.
Gambar estimated Iran would have a nuclear weapon within
several months. Gambar asked that the West help protect
Azerbaijan from attack in the event that Iran develops
nuclear weapons. Because Iran seeks to work against both the
US and US-allies, Gambar believes Azerbaijan would be
directly in the line of fire. Ambassador agreed that the
Iranian situation was of concern, but the USG was working
together with its European allies to negotiate a solution and
to support internal Iranian movements for democracy.
Ambassador added that he understands Azerbaijan's
vulnerabilities, particularly with regards to Nakhchivan's
energy supply.

MAMMEDOV: WILL THE REAL ANIP PLEASE STAND UP
--------------


6. (SBU) Etibar Mammedov called on Ambassador to discuss the
current tensions within his party. Mammedov stepped down
from a direct leadership role in the Azerbaijan National
Independence Party (ANIP) more than a year ago, but
maintained influence over its activity. However, earlier
this year the chairman of ANIP, Ali Aliyev, began a direct
power play to apparently wrest the party from Mammedov's
control. Mammedov has now reasserted his control over ANIP,
creating two factions. Mammedov attributed the party's
internal strife to the illegitimate and unwarranted power
grab by Aliyev. Mammedov said that Aliyev had run roughshod
over ANIP's party council and had failed in his duties.
Mammedov reported that his wing of the party council would
meet on February 17 to decide whether ANIP would participate
in the May rerun elections. Mammedov affirmed that he
believed participation in the reruns was in the party's
interest and expected ANIP to field candidates in the
election. (Aliyev's ANIP wing has signed an agreement with
the Azadliq Political Bloc, which will boycott the May
elections). Mammedov added that the two persons currently
elected to Parliament under the ANIP banner were not in fact
ANIP party nominees but rather prominent individuals who were
party members supported by their political allies.
Separately, Mammedov underscored his concern for the welfare
of the Azeri community living in Iran in light of Iran's
increasingly bellicose stance on the international stage.
Mammedov concluded by asking the Ambassador for USG
assistance in training ANIP's candidates for participation in
the May reruns.
HARNISH