AZERBAIJANI PUBLIC DISMISSES N-K TALKS AS "TOILET

UNCLAS BAKU 000277

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/PPD, AND EUR/SNEC

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PHUM KDEM KMDR KPAO PREL PGOV AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJANI PUBLIC DISMISSES N-K TALKS AS "TOILET
DIPLOMACY"


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) Public reaction following the unsuccessful
presidential talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict February
10-11 in Rambouillet, France, has been predictable. While
the international press had billed the talks as having the
possibility for a break-through, most Azerbaijanis remained
cynical that significant, or even minor agreements would be
achieved. Therefore, following the talks most politologues
and average Azerbaijanis expressed little surprise and much
cynicism at the outcome of the negotiations.


2. (U) Public reaction here immediately seized on a report
broadcast by ANS television from Rambouillet that President
Kocharian broke off the talks abruptly "to go to the
restroom," and that he was quickly followed out by Russian
Co-Chair Merzylakov. According to ANS, the talks ground to
a halt shortl after the bathroom break. This so-called
"toilt diplomacy" has been interpreted widely as the
Russians having given Kocharian permission to be
unreasonable and refuse to negotiate. Presidential adviser
Novruz Mammadov was quoted as saying of Kocharian that, "A
leader has to act seriously and responsibly. What are the
people of his own country going to think of him after this?"
Azerbaijanis, who have long accused Russia of supporting
Armenia during the conflict, also still suspect that the
Russian Co-Chair is biased towards Armenia. Akif Naghi,
Chairman of the Karabakh Liberation Organization, told ANS
television that Kocharian's move showed that Armenia does
not have a position of its own and merely acts on Russia's
orders. Independent analyst and former opposition member
Rasim Musabayov approvingly attributed the result to
Azerbaijan's firm position on territorial integrity and
questioned Armenia's ability to reach an agreement in that
framework.


3. (SBU) Most opposition political leaders also focused on
Kocharian's actions, stating that it proved the close and
intransigent Armenian and Russian positions. Ali Kerimli,
chairman of the Popular Front Party, stated that "Armenians
will always find excuses." Opposition leader Eldar Namazov
voiced little surprise at the outcome, saying he expected
this round of negotiations to follow a similar track as
every other round (i.e. without substantive results).
Musavat Party Deputy Chairman Sulhaddin Akbar told us that
he does not expect a breakthrough to be forthcoming unless a
new balance of power emerges in the region. He also said
the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs should have a unified
position so as to present, in fact, a united front.
However, more radical opposition leader Iskender Hamidov,
Chairman of the National Democratic Party (formerly the Grey
Wolves Party) dismissed outright the Minsk Group process.
He said the actions of the Russian Co-Chair demonstrated
that the three co-chairs have no interest in the principle
of justice and that Azerbaijan must act in its own interest
to resolve the conflict, with force if necessary.


4. (SBU) While the majority of Azerbaijanis did not appear
to expect much from the most recent round of N-K
negotiations, many have expressed frustration at the hype
every time that "this could be it," but once again having
their hopes of progress dashed. From the talk around town
we have heard in the past two weeks, it seems that the
average Azerbaijani may be becoming increasingly cynical
about the prospects for a peaceful and, in their view,
"just" resolution to the conflict. This, however, gives
more radical elements in society a broader platform to
proclaim at best that someone must force Armenia to the
table, which means either changing Russia's position or
mitigating its influence. At worst, some elements such as
the Karabakh Liberation Organization and other radical
groups, espouse force to resolve the conflict.

HARNISH