Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAKU1845
2006-12-21 13:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

INITIAL AZERBAIJANI REACTION TO TURKMENBASHI'S

Tags:  PGOV PREL ENRG EPET PBTS IR TX AJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKB #1845/01 3551353
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211353Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2021
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1922
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001845 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG EPET PBTS IR TX AJ
SUBJECT: INITIAL AZERBAIJANI REACTION TO TURKMENBASHI'S
DEATH

BAKU 00001845 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND, PER REASONS 1.4 (B, D
)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001845

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG EPET PBTS IR TX AJ
SUBJECT: INITIAL AZERBAIJANI REACTION TO TURKMENBASHI'S
DEATH

BAKU 00001845 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND, PER REASONS 1.4 (B, D
)


1. (C) Summary: The GOAJ and local Azerbaijani observers are
still digesting the news of Turkmen President Niyazov's
death, but believe Niyazov,s death could create an
opportunity to improve the traditionally poor relationship
between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijani
commentators believe Niyazov,s death could create a window
of opportunity for progress on two key issues: a
trans-Caspian gas line and the legal status of the Caspian.
MFA Desk Officer Elchin Bashirov told us that this
development "is an opportunity that the USG should jump on"
before "the Russians take advantage" of the situation. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) We spoke with several GOAJ officils and
independent commentators about the signifcance of
Turkmenistan President Saparmurat Niyazv's death. We heard
perspectives on several issus related to Azerbaijan-Turkmen
relations.

GOJ Still Digesting the News
--------------


3. (C) MFA Americas Desk Officer Elchi Bashirov told us
that the GOAJ is unlikely to isue a statement on the death
of Niyazvov, except perhaps for a short condolence statement
by President Aliyev. Bashirov had no information about whom
from the GOAJ would likely attend the funeral. First Deputy
Prime Minister Yagub Eyyubov told Charge that he had not yet
briefed Prime Minister Artur Rasizade about the reported
death and that no arrangements had been made yet for official
GOAJ representation at the funeral.

Azerbaijani Interests at Stake
--------------


4. (C) GOAJ and independent analysts emphasized that
relations traditionally have been very poor between
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. (Note: Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan do not even maintain embassies in each other,s
capitals.) These contacts highlighted several bilateral
issues that could be impacted by Niyazov's death.
Specifically, they were most interested in whether the death
will result in an increased potential for a trans-Caspian gas
pipeline to break Turkmenistan's reliance on Russia and if
there could be progress toward resolving the legal status of
the Caspian.


5. (C) MFA Americas Desk Officer Elchin Bashirov said that
the death of Turkmen President Niyazov could mark "a new era
in Central Asia," although it is too early to make
predictions about the character and policies of a new
government. Bashirov said there are two Azerbaijani
interests at play: the new potential for progress on a
trans-Caspian gas pipeline and an agreement on the legal
division of the Caspian. Bashirov said that in his private
opinion, this development "is an opportunity that the USG
should jump on" before "the Russians take advantage" of the
situation. Bashirov explained that this is a new opportunity
for the USG to place its "geopolitical interests" in the
forefront and quickly engage with a new Turkmen government to
push for sending Turkmen gas across the Caspian. Bashirov
warned that if the USG hesitates, Moscow will quickly control
this issue. Bashirov also noted that
Turkmenistan's neighbors are carefully watching events, and
neither Azerbaijan or the USG could afford to see
Turkmenistan "go in the way of Uzbekistan," or worse, Iran.


6. (C) Hassan Massamzade -- who works in the Presidential
Apparat or Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov -- told
poloff that it will "not be so easy" to get a new Turkmen
government to agree to a trans-Caspian gas pipleline.
Massamzade said "some outside forces" -- an unambiguous
reference to Russia and Iran -- want "no changes" to
Ashgabat's current pattern of gas exports. He noted that
European countries probably would have to apply pressure to
increase the probability for a new trans-Caspian line.
Massamzade said that "some improvements" on resolving the
Caspian's legal status "are more likely" than a change
regarding a trans-Caspian pipeline.


7. (C) Western-educated political commentator Fariz
Ismailzade also highlighted that Azerbaijan and the USG could
have an opportunity to expand their maritime security efforts

BAKU 00001845 002.2 OF 002


on the Caspian by reaching out to Turkmenistan. He noted
that Turkmenistan could become a third partner -- alongside
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan -- to counter transnational threats
in the Caspian basin. Ismailzade cautioned, however, that
much depends on the character of the new government and
Russia's degree of influence over the country.
HYLAND