Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAKU1810
2006-12-12 08:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR'S DINNER WITH FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSTS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR IR KDEM PHUM AJ 
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FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1959
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1906
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0537
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 0523
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 BAKU 001810 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IR KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DINNER WITH FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSTS


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 BAKU 001810

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IR KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DINNER WITH FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSTS


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: At a lively December 6 dinner hosted by the
Ambassador, six of Azerbaijan's most respected foreign policy
analysts argued that Azerbaijan's difficult geographical
position forces it to have a cautious foreign policy to
balance the divergent foreign influences. They also noted
that Georgia's tense relations with Russia are crucial for
Azerbaijan because the GOAJ's western-oriented foreign policy
will "collapse" if Russia comes to dominate Georgia. Most
commentators acknowledged a discrepancy between Baku's
foreign policy of Western-integration and its domestic
policies, although several analysts--including ruling party
MP Samad Seyidov -- argued that the GOAJ's tough geopolitical
position dictated a tempered pace of reform. Several of the
pro-opposition analysts argued that the GOAJ may reach a
strategic decision point regarding its domestic policy, where
it must choose between democratic reforms or the path of
Russia and Uzbekistan. The analysts were divided on the
question of whether the influence of Islam is growing as a
political force. While the analysts were divided on the
question of Azerbaijan's internal politics and the degree to
which Russia and Iran influence Azerbaijan, they were
completely united on the need for Azerbaijan to continue its
strategic path of integration with the West. End Summary

Ambassador Provides Introduction
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador hosted a dinner for six respected
commentators on foreign policy issues on December 6. Guests
included analysts Rasim Musabayov, Eldar Namazov, Arif
Yunusov, Zardusht Alizade, Namig Akhundov, and Chair of the
Parliament's International Relations Committee Samad Seyidov.
Attendees represented a spectrum of backgrounds, including
academic, government, and journalism. The Ambassador began
the evening by reviewing the key areas of bilateral
cooperation--reform, energy, and security. The Ambassador

acknowledged Azerbaijan's difficult geopolitical setting,
which forces Azerbaijan's foreign policy to take account of
multiple, competing influences. Given the complexity of the
GOAJ's foreign policy, the Ambassador said she looked forward
to hearing about the factors shaping Baku's policies.

Foreign Policy Based on Western Integration and Caution
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Seyidov, who is the head of Parliament's
International Relations Committee, remarked that "there are
not big differences" among participants' foreign policy
views, despite their varying political positions. We agree
on the basic idea that Azerbaijan should strive to integrate
with the Euro-Atlantic region, he said. Specifically, we
agree that Azerbaijan should pursue NATO membership,
integration with the EU, and close ties to the US, Seyidov
said. Azerbaijan's foreign policy is "not very easy,"
however, because Baku must manage multiple--and sometimes
competing--relations with Russia, Georgia, Iran, and EU
member states. Because of its difficult geographical
setting, Seyidov argued that Azerbaijan must maintain
"balanced relations." Seyidov also made the contextual
remark that in Azerbaijan, one "cannot separate domestic and
foreign policy issues," a comment that proved to be prescient
for the evening's discussion.


4. (C) Former advisor to former President Mutalibov and
prominent commentator Rasim Musabayov said Azerbaijan needs
to maintain a "careful foreign policy." Musabayov argued
that Azerbaijan cannot be compared with Georgia because
Azerbaijan has several major foreign policy problems in
addition to its relationship with Russia. Reflecting on the
importance of Georgian-Russian relations, Musabayov said that
if Georgia is "taken" by Russia, Azerbaijan's
western-oriented foreign policy will "collapse." Musabayov
said there is a broad societal consensus within Azerbaijan
that it must support Georgia in its problems with Russia
because Azerbaijan has "no other option" but to orient toward
the West. Musabayov argued that the pace of Western-style
reforms is slower in Azerbaijan because of its difficult
geopolitical situation. Whereas "freedom" was the key
concern for Azerbaijanis in the early 1990s, followed by the
desire for "stability," Azerbaijanis are most currently

BAKU 00001810 002 OF 006


interested in "fairness and justice." He highlighted the
distribution of property and the court system as critical
areas where the population longs for justice. Musabayov
cautioned that this broad-based yearning for fairness and
justice could lead to "national populism" --similar to
contemporary Venezuela--or "popular Islam."

Contradictory Domestic and Foreign Policies
--------------


5. (C) Political commentator and director of a journalism
school Alizade said the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict was
critical in shaping Azerbaijanis' negative view of Russia.
Prior to NK, Azerbaijan had a history of good relations with
Russia. From a historical perspective, Azerbaijan even
received some of its European values through its relations
with Russia. Alizade suggested that currently, Russia is
largely exerting a negative influence on Azerbaijan. The
values of the current Azerbaijani ruling class are "in
contradiction with European values." Alizade suggested that
Azerbaijan is playing a game of building relations with
Russia and Europe, although this policy is "contradictory."
Aliyev's family and cohorts control the major assets of the
Azerbaijani state, he alleged. Alizade considered that the
past fifteen years represent the steady erosion of democracy
and civil rights in Azerbaijan. Referring to the pressure
that independent thinkers in Azerbaijan feel, Alizade
remarked that "Russia is frightening the democratic minds of
Azerbaijan." He proceeded that the Azerbaijani government
"in its essence is becoming undemocratic like Russia."
Turning toward Iran, Zardusht said that the key factor
hindering good ties between Azerbaijan and Iran was the
current Iranian regime--especially since Iran and Azerbaijan
historically have had deep relations.


6. (C) Former head of the Parliament's foreign relations
department and educator Akhundov said the context of
Azerbaijan's independence was more complex than that of other
post-Soviet states. The war with Armenia over NK was the
critical context for Azerbaijan's statehood. Azerbaijanis
sense there is a double standard in regard to the settlement
of NK, and this shapes their views of the West, Akhundov
said. He argued that while Azerbaijan worked hard to
showcase to Europe that it was a democratic Muslim state,
Armenia did nothing. After independence, the Azerbaijani
people wanted immediate democracy and this created some
difficulties in the GOAJ's foreign policy. He acknowledged
that while he is a democrat, he is not a "European democrat,"
who believes in adopting quick societal changes. He noted
that Azerbaijanis want to go toward Europe, but we need to
find "a mechanism" to move toward the West "at the right
speed." Akhundov also observed that wealth and the country's
property increasingly are moving toward a smaller number of
people, saying that this was similar to American and European
development several centuries ago.


7. (C) Turning toward Russia, he said that Azerbaijan
"cannot survive without Russia" because "our market is
Russia." At the same time, Russia has a "complex" of
imperial feelings. He highlighted that Russia holds the key
to solving the NK conflict, which could be solved in "one
week" if this is what Moscow wanted. Akhundov characterized
Iran as almost as bad as Armenia. Iran is a dangerous
neighbor and Azerbaijan is more European in its instincts
than Iran. Akhundov referred to Georgia as an "important
country"," although there are some problems with the way
Georgia treats its Azerbaijani minority. He also said that
Georgia sometimes creates more problems then it solves.

Influence of Islam Growing/Iranian Influence
--------------


8. (C) Respected academic and Islamic scholar Arif Yunusov
argued that Azerbaijani public opinion increasingly was not
predisposed to favor the West and Islam was growing in
importance, especially in the regions. He emphasized the
large distinction between people who live in Baku and the
regions, characterizing them as "two different republics."
Yunusov suggested that while some elite Azerbaijani opinion
favors Azerbaijan's western integration, people in the
regions and the pro-Russian elite have a different opinion.
He referred to survey results from 1994 and 1999, pulsing the

BAKU 00001810 003 OF 006


foreign policy attitudes of Azerbaijanis. According to
Yunusov, in 1994, 46 percent of those surveyedpreferred
strong ties to the West (EU and the Wet),while only 6
percent favored ties to Russia. In 1999, there was a
significant shift, with 28 ercent of respondents saying they
preferred link to the West, and 26 percent favoring ties to
Rusia. (Note: Post has no further background informtion on
the survey or the precise wording of thequestion.)
Yunusov's conclusion was that the public view of the West is
seriously declining. At this point, Musabayov disagreed with
Yunusov's survey results, noting that his separate survey
information indicated that while the population's view of the
US is going down, it is not an extreme downturn.


9. (C) Yunusov suggested that Islam is becoming a powerful
force for those who are dissatisfied with current conditions
in Azerbaijan. He said that he observed a change after the
2003 Presidential elections, with a surprising number of
people increasingly interested in Islam. Yunusov argued that
there is only a small amount of the population--the
elite--who favor a pro-Western foreign policy. Yunusov
argued that the GOAJ's pressures on civil society exacerbate
this trend; he noted that whereas discussion clubs had
flourished during the Gorbachev period, mosques are the only
institutions where such debate now can occur. There is no
space for political activity in the regions, and Yunusov said
he often goes to mosques to conduct sociological surveys.
Musabayov disagreed, noting that there is some organized
political activity in the regions, although the central
government can quickly shut this down. Sehidov also strongly
disagreed with Yunusov,s views. As evidence of the growing
strength of Islam--especially in southern Azerbaijan--Yunusov
said people in Baku do not know who the Grand Ayatollah
Sistani is, but Lankoran residents not only know him but
acknowledge him as their religious leader. He also claimed
that Iran and Hizballah are quite active in southern
Azerbaijan. (NOTE: It is unclear if Yunusov used the term
Hizballah in an organizational or ideological sense; we will
probe him for further information.) Musabayov took exception
with Yunusov on this point, saying that while Iranian
influence is strong along Azerbaijan's border with Iran, this
influence is "not decisive." Yunusov countered that former
State Committee on Religious Affair Rafig Aliyev agreed that
Hizballah had a presence in southern Azerbaijan.


10. (C) Yunusov remarked that Islam is a bigger problem
than is commonly acknowledged, especially among the elite,
who tend to lack an understanding of how people live in the
regions. Yunusov wondered how the Azerbaijani public might
react to an international military strike against Iran, given
Iran's growing influence in southern Azerbaijan. He cited
survey information that only the Musavat party leadership
would support US military operations against Iran. Musabayov
disagreed, noting that even the majority of the US population
was against a potential US military attack against Iran. In
closing, Yunusov noted the close connection between
Azerbaijan's foreign and domestic policy.

Heydar Aliyev's Policy Based on Western Integration
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Former foreign policy advisor to late President
Heydar Aliyev and active political commentator Namazov argued
that Azerbaijan under Heydar Aliyev never had a strategic
policy of "balance." The strategic focus under the first
President was Western integration, although there were
"tactical" steps of "balance." Azerbaijan never succeeded in
relations with Russia on the level that Baku desired because
of the NK problem. Namazov reflected on Heydar Aliyev's
comment to former US President Bill Clinton in the 1990s that
Russia will preserve its imperialist instincts for several
generations. Namazov reflected on how several members of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)--Ukraine, Georgia,
and Azerbaijan--consistently sought to keep the CIS from
evolving into a new Warsaw Pact.

Key Mistakes in GOAJ's Foreign Policy
--------------


12. (C) Namazov discussed several "mistakes" in
Azerbaijan's foreign policy. He said that Azerbaijan's
failure to establish an Embassy in Israel is a mistake,

BAKU 00001810 004 OF 006


especially since many other CIS countries have taken this
step. Namazov described how Heydar Aliyev had been close to
taking this step in the late 1990s, but the decision was
scuttled at the final stages. Namazov then described the two
"strategic mistakes" of Azerbaijan's foreign policy. First,
there is a great gap and a contradiction between Azerbaijan's
western-oriented foreign policy and the country's domestic
policies. Specifically, Azerbaijan's pro-Western foreign
policy is not reflected in the GOAJ'S behavior in elections,
pressure on the media, and the lack of an independent court
system. Namazov observed that Azerbaijan's domestic policy
hinders its foreign policy. He also agreed with Yunusov's
argument that political Islam is growing stronger in
Azerbaijan. Namazov cited two dynamics that are fueling the
growth of Islam: government pressure on the opposition, which
is forcing people to the mosques, and corruption. Second,
the GOAJ confuses personal and state interests. He observed
that authoritarian regimes traditionally mix both interests.

Conservative and Reformist Government Insiders
-------------- -


13. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question on why
there appeared to be a gap between Azerbaijan's domestic and
foreign policies, Namazov said that there are a diversity of
groups with competing agendas in the government. He also
remarked that clientelism allows cliques to install
like-minded people in other government positions. Within the
government, there is a pro-Western group and a more
conservative group that is not democratically-oriented and
opposes integration with the West. In general, the
conservative group is stronger than the Western-inclined
clique. Namazov identified three areas where conservatives
have a power base: the Presidential administration, the
cabinet of ministers, and the Parliament. (NOTE: In private
meetings with poloff, Namazov has made the same argument,
focusing particularly on the Presidential apparat and the
cabinet of ministers as the bastion of conservative influence
within the government.)


14. (C) Namazov's remarks sparked a lively discussion.
Musabayov highlighted survey information that demonstrated
Ilham Aliyev is a genuinely popular leader. He argued that
while cliques within the government are important, the will
of the leader is the most important factor. Work towards a
European model for Azerbaijan will take work and political
freedom, Musabayov said. Seyidov said that people in the
Presidential administration are not necessarily against
reforms. He also took issue with Namazov's comment that
Azerbaijan should have established an embassy in Israel.
Seyidov argued that Azerbaijan faces enormous pressure from
its southern neighbor and noted that Iran had cut gas
supplies to Naxchivan when Aliyev had been close to a
decision to establish diplomatic representation in Israel.
Seyidov also claimed that Iran would target Azerbaijan's
energy infrastructure if Iran is attacked. Nevertheless, he
said, Azerbaijan maintains extremely good relations with
Israel.


15. (C) Seyidov argued that Azerbaijan is not on the wrong
path. "Bad steps" on domestic policy are largely because of
outside pressure. Azerbaijan increasingly has more money,
which allows Baku to exercise a growing leadership role in
the region. He cited Azerbaijan's Chairmanship of the OIC
Foreign Ministers Conference and Baku's leadership in several
regional infrastructure projects as examples. Seyidov noted
the critical importance of Georgia-Russian relations in
securing Azerbaijan's continued Western orientation. He said
that if Georgia is not independent, it will be impossible for
Azerbaijan to be independent. Seyidov remarked that there
may be a "gentleman's agreement" between the US-EU and
Russia, granting the former control of the Middle East in
exchange for giving the latter control of the former Soviet
space. The Ambassador assured participants that there was no
such agreement.

Debate on Character of the Government
--------------


16. (C) Namazov picked up on this discussion, focusing on
the character of the Azerbaijani government. He said that
the ruling Azerbaijani party speaks about European

BAKU 00001810 005 OF 006


integration because its representatives are personally
integrated into Europe. For example, they drive European
cars, have European-style homes, wear French ties, and have
bank accounts in Europe. At the same time, this goal of
European integration is not reflected in the GOAJ's approach
to the media, human rights, or the court system. Namazov
said that the GOAJ's shortcomings in these areas are
continually blamed on "our people having their own
mentality." Namazov said the GOAJ perceives that it is in a
position to bargain with the West. While the GOAJ is
interested in working with the West in the areas of energy
and security, Baku wants no interference with its internal
affairs. He noted that the "imitation of democracy may last
for 3 to 5 years, but not longer." Azerbaijan will have to
make a strategic decision to follow the path of democratic
reforms or go the road of Russia and Uzbekistan. Namazov
predicted that reformists will gradually be removed from the
ruling circle, as occurred with former Minister of Economic
Development Farhad Aliyev, now under detention.


17. (C) Seyidov countered that the GOAJ's goal of
Euro-Atlantic integration is not superficial. The road to
democracy is "difficult and full of complications." The
declining favorable opinion of the West within Azerbaijani
society reflects that Azerbaijan is truly in a difficult
neighborhood. Azerbaijan "needs a lot of time" to solve its
problems, but this can be done by creating popular trust in
the rule of law. The Ambassador emphasized that USG support
for reforms is not merely lip-service. The USG seeks to
build on President Aliyev's commitment to President Bush that
Azerbaijan seeks to integrate into the West. There appears
to be a tussle in the minds of some Azerbaijanis about the
future direction of their country, and the US wants to a
partner with Azerbaijan. The USG also understands that
democratic states usually are the strongest partners.


18. (C) Yunusov said Seyidov's points about Azerbaijan
needing a lot of time is precisely what Farhad Aliyev said
two years ago, but he is now in prison. A spirited
discussion among Seyidov, Namazov, and Yunusov ensued on the
reasons why Farhad Aliyev was sacked and
arrested--corruption, his popularity, or his disloyalty to
the government. Yunusov also suggested that Aliyev's
democratic commitments to the US should not be taken
seriously, as even Turkmenistan's President Niyazov publicly
advocates democracy. Azerbaijan's institutions largely
resemble Soviet institutions--namely, a centralized regime
with a highly-personalized system for distributing power.
Namazov and Yunusov agreed that the current system parallels
the Soviet system, with "the copy" being worse than "the
original." Seyidov countered that things are getting better,
saying that the participants could not have had such a frank
conversation during the Soviet period. In response to the
Ambassador's question on why it was so hard for Azerbaijan to
make progress on democratic reform, Seyidov said the
mentality of the people and problems in the regions slow the
development of democracy. He argued that we need to help the
President in this process, because it is "impossible to
create democracy overnight."

Energy Security
--------------


19. (C) Turning to energy security, Seyidov asked the
Ambassador why the US and the EU have a "relaxed attitude"
toward Gazprom's monopolization efforts. The Ambassador
assured participants that the USG takes this issue very
seriously and is working at various levels to address this
concern. Musabayov commented that Azerbaijan's domestic gas
supply simply is not enough to seriously threaten Russia's
gas interests in Europe. The key, however, is if Azerbaijan
becomes a genuine transit state for gas to Europe.
Azerbaijan is now merely a supplier, not a transit, country.
Yunusov said Russia will not allow an alternative gas
pipeline to Europe "as a matter of principle." Russians have
a different style of diplomacy than Americans, he said. The
Russians are very direct about their interest. Russians
directly tell us not to sell oil or gas to the West or to
help Georgia, Yunusov said.


20. (C) Musabayov commented that Georgia is a critical
state. If the West protects Georgia, Russia "can do nothing"

BAKU 00001810 006 OF 006


to Azerbaijan. Russia presently is focused on subordinating
Georgia. This is making Azerbaijanis more determined to side
with Georgia against Russia. Seyidov suggested that Russia
still had the means to create domestic problems in
Azerbaijan. He said Russia may have been involved in the
recent closure of ANS, in order to tarnish Azerbaijan's
reputation before the Council of Europe.

Iran is Sneaky
--------------


21. (C) Turning again to Iran, Akhundov said President
Ahmadinejad is smart and sneaky. He advised that the USG
should consider operations to support ethnic Azeris Iran
because this is the only way to get true change in Iran.
(Akhundov's comments were met by expressions of disbelief by
other guests.)

Comment
--------------


22. (C) While the analysts were divided on the question of
Azerbaijan,s internal politics and the degree to which
Russia and Iran influence Azerbaijan, they were completely
united on the need for Azerbaijan to continue its strategic
path of integration with the West. It is clear that players
from across Azerbaijan,s political spectrum view
Euro-Atlantic integration as the key to Azerbaijan,s
long-term independence and stability. The real challenge is
to ensure that the seemingly growing gap between GOAJ policy
commitments and realities on the ground--particularly in the
sphere of democratization--do not derail the vitally
important process of Euro-Atlantic integration.
HYLAND