PUBLIC REMAINS QUIETLY DISTURBED BY ANS CLOSURE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 001795

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: PUBLIC REMAINS QUIETLY DISTURBED BY ANS CLOSURE;
OPPOSITION EVICTION NEARLY FORGOTTEN

REF: A. BAKU 1752


B. BAKU 1739

C. BAKU 1729

D. BAKU 1713

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Two weeks after the November 24 closure of
independent ANS Television and the eviction of the residents
of the Azadliq newspaper building, the public, while
concerned, remains quiet. After the President's November 29
comments on the ANS "suspension," many were optimistic that
he would take concrete steps to allow ANS to rebroadcast. As
days pass while ANS remains off the air, the President's
words seem to be losing traction. After the President's
statement, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov came out with a
cryptic statement defending Azerbaijani democracy, while
opposition leaders counter that the country is shifting
towards a more authoritarian regime. There are also many
concerns that the media crackdown is damaging Azerbaijan's
international image, and the country's relationship with the
West. Rumors continue to circulate that the ruling party is
pushing for an extension for the presidential term, but there
is no clear connection indicating that this push is tied to
the November 24 events. The eviction of the Popular Front
Party, independent Turan News Agency, Azadliq newspaper, and
Bizim Yol newspaper have been all but forgotten in the shadow
of the ANS closure. END SUMMARY

REACTION TO ALIYEV'S STATEMENT ON ANS
--------------


2. (C) Although the Azerbaijani population remains shocked
over the November 24 closure of ANS, expressions of this
concern are still largely muted (see ref c). Virtually all
contacts with whom we talked agree with the public statements
- made by politicos, national artists and athletes, and even
the pro-GOAJ Ombudswoman - calling upon the President to
allow ANS to broadcast again. The general public initially
perceived President Aliyev's November 29 statement on ANS as
a signal that the GOAJ would allow ANS to resume
broadcasting. However, as days pass and ANS remains off the
air, the President's words seem to be losing traction. The
National Television and Radio Council's (NTRC) decision to
allow ANS Television to participate in the tender for the
station's frequency (see ref a) is not viewed as an adequate
step to reverse the contentious decision to "suspend" the
broadcast of ANS. Popular Front Party (PFP) Chair Ali Kerimli
told us that he is concerned the GOAJ will "take control of
ANS but present it as the same ANS." Human rights activist
Saida Gojamanly echoed Kerimli's concern, saying that the
tender process will allow the management of ANS to change,
perhaps even hiring the same employees that already worked
for ANS. Youth activist Emin Huseynov said that Aliyev's
statement was "just an attempt to buy some time." In a
December 6 meeting with DCM and PAO, Presidential Advisor for
Social and Political Affairs Ali Hasanov gave an informal
assurance that if ANS participated in the tender, and if the
ANS owner "showed appropriate respect" to the NTRC, it would
win the tender. However, given the aggressive role that
Hasanov has played in this crisis, it is not surprising that
the ANS leadership is skeptical.


3. (C) Eldar Jahangirov, an active member of the independent
Democratic Reforms Party (DRP) told us that the President's
statement indicated he would not go out of his way to support
ANS, preferring that it be handled in a "legal way."
According to Jahangirov, people remain upset about the
closure, regardless of the cause. In a November 30 editorial
piece, independent - and recently evicted from the 33 Khagani
location - Turan News Agency said that "Aliyev's statement
does not clarify the ANS situation." Musavat party leader Isa
Gambar told the press that the President's statement was "an
attempt to conceal the real state of affairs." According to
Gambar, the international community's "tough statements" have
forced Aliyev to "be careful." Etibar Mammadov, chair of the
Azerbaijan National Independence Party told the press that
although Aliyev's statement is "very interesting" and that
his proposals are important, he had concerns on how GOAJ
officials would implement these proposals. Human rights
activist Saida Gojamanly told us that the President's
statement was intended to "deceive" the international
community, that citing the legal basis for the November 24
events is really masking the GOAJ's flexing of power.


4. (SBU) The lack of significant public backlash to the
closure of ANS may be due, in part, to ANS management's
decision to deliberately dissuade supporters from taking
strong action. All public comments made by ANS since the
November 24 closure have been notably mild. ANS management
told us that because they are "in a difficult position," they

BAKU 00001795 002 OF 003


have urged the thousands of viewers who have called in to
voice support not to react strongly. As political analyst
Ilgar Mammadov told us, many people still cling to the hope
that the President will somehow "fix" the situation.

AZERBAIJANI DEMOCRACY UP FOR DEBATE
--------------


5. (U) In his November 29 statement, President Aliyev
defended Azerbaijan's respect for democratic values, saying
"Freedom of the press is present in Azerbaijan...and ensuring
freedom of speech is one of our priorities." In an interview
with BBC News, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov commented
on the United States' November 29 statement in response to
the closure of ANS and the eviction of the Azadliq newspaper
building tenants, calling the GOAJ to honor its commitment to
democracy and freedom of the press. In the interview,
Mammadyarov said that there were "no problems with free
speech in Azerbaijan." He continued, saying "We already have
the skeleton of what we understand as a democracy for the
state. Now we need the muscles." Similar to the President's
statement, Mammadyarov concluded that there would be "no
untouchables;" that everyone had to operate under the rule of
law (see ref b). Not everyone agrees with GOAJ officials
defending Azerbaijan's status as a developing democracy.
Popular Front Party Deputy Chair Fuad Mustafayev commented to
the press that if the GOAJ "played at democracy before, now
they even refuse to imitate it." Mustafayev echoed concerns
that we have heard from other opposition leaders that
Azerbaijan is shifting towards a more authoritarian regime
like that of Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan.

IMPLICATIONS IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA
--------------


6. (C) Across the board, contacts agreed that the media
crackdown is damaging to Azerbaijan's relationship with the
international community. Political analyst Ilgar Mammadov
told Poloff that the November 24 events are a "major blow to
democracy" in Azerbaijan. He said that the media crackdown
will have a serious negative impact on Azerbaijan's
relationship with the West, which he feels is evidenced by
criticism from the international organizations "on the
highest level." Member of Parliament (MP) and Chair of DRP
Asim Mollazade shared his frustration that GOAJ "bureaucrats
are violating the national interests of Azerbaijan."
According to Mollazade, the GOAJ's media crackdown is
damaging to the country's relationship with the international
community and is damaging Azerbaijan's international image.
Mollazade concluded that actions like these serve to push
Azerbaijan's orientation from west to east.

A LONGER PRESIDENTIAL TERM?
--------------


7. (C) In the wake of the November 24 events, rumors of the
ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) pursuing a longer
presidential term continue to churn. In a November 8
newspaper column, one YAP member argued that prolonging the
term would result in the President having more time to
"manage his work effectively" and to "use his potential."
Although most seem convinced that this may be more than just
a rumor, it is unclear if the idea of a term extension is
linked to the media crackdown. Political analyst Leyla Alieva
told Poloff that the Azerbaijani people view a possible
extension of the presidential term as "fully possible." She
suggested that it would be difficult to determine whether
this plan would materialize, but she believed that the idea
could gain steam in the coming months. Head of the opposition
Yeni Siyaset (YeS) bloc Eldar Namazov said that YAP is using
the November column as a "trial balloon." Although Namazov is
not certain from which level of the GOAJ this initiative has
sprung, he said that this was not a random move. Namazov
expects similar maneuvers in the coming months. Journalist
Chingiz Sultansoy told us that the extension is possible,
because with a weak opposition and a politically apathetic
population, there would be little public backlash. Youth
activist Emin Huseynov concluded that while an extension is
possible, YAP will probably attempt to do this through a
referendum to be held after the October 2008 Presidential
Elections.

WHAT ABOUT THE OPPOSITION?
--------------


8. (C) Although the eviction of the tenants of the 33 Khagani
location (the former Azadliq newspaper building - see ref d)
- enforced mere hours after ANS Television was taken off the
air - certainly helped fuel initial reaction to the rapidly
deteriorating media freedom situation, now that the dust has
settled, 33 Khagani's former residents are all but forgotten.

BAKU 00001795 003 OF 003


Many public statements following the November 24 events, both
from international organizations and local players, focused
on the rebroadcast of ANS. Further, most statements that
mentioned the eviction focused on independent Turan News
Agency and sometimes Azadliq newspaper, but overlooked the
eviction of PFP, one of the first parties to emerge in
post-Soviet Azerbaijan, and a major player in the country's
independence movement. (NOTE: The Ambassador and PAO have
raised the issue of PFP in repeated comments to the press.)
PFP Chair Ali Kerimli shared his frustration with us, saying
that although he whole-heartedly agreed with the Embassy's
statement on ANS, Turan and Azadliq, he felt that the
statement should have mentioned PFP as well. Kerimli also
characterized the GOAJ's moves against the media and PFP as
the opening salvo of a GOAJ move against "the multi-party
system."


9. (C) Some blame the lack of public reaction to the 33
Khagani eviction on the absence of unbiased media coverage on
the topic. With ANS off the air, several Azerbaijani youth
told us that people simply do not have access to the
information. Although the remaining network television
stations covered the eviction, these youth feel that they
only covered the GOAJ's perspective. One of our contacts, who
wrote a heated article on ANS' closure under a pen name, said
that it is hard to tie the events together. According to this
contact, while the closure of ANS "clearly has political
motives," the 33 Khagani eviction does not. Echoing the
thoughts of a good segment of the population, he said that
the former tenants of 33 Khagani "can perfectly well operate
in other offices, can't they? I don't understand the big
fuss."


COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) While many of our contacts bemoan the loss of ANS to
Azerbaijan's media environment, public reaction to the
suspension has been limited to rhetoric. We suspect many
people generally believe that the GOAJ will indeed allow ANS
to reopen in time - most likely with new management. The real
GOAJ motivation behind the ANS closure remains unclear; we
will provide our own analysis septel.
DERSE