FINNISH (EU) AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001745

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AMMAN - PLEASE PASS TO EUR A/S FRIED, DEPARTMENT FOR EUR
DAS BRYZA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: FINNISH (EU) AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER
MEDIA SITUATION, DETAILS NEXT EU STEPS

REF: BAKU 1739 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) EU (Finnish) Ambassador to Azerbaijan Teri Hakala
briefed the Ambassador November 30 on EU views concerning the
recent ANS closure and opposition eviction. Hakala, on a
previously scheduled trip to Baku, met with Deputy Foreign
Minister Mammadguliyev, human rights activists, and will meet
with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov before departing. Hakala
affirmed that the EU shared USG concern over the seriousness
of the GOAJ actions and said that Aliyev's November 29 public
statement was unclear at best and insufficient. She said that
DFM Mammadguliyev reiterated that Azerbaijan was committed to
Euro-atlantic integration and fell back on the GOAJ arguments
that everyone must comply with the law and that Azerbaijani
democratization should be viewed in the context of its
geographic location. Hakala said that the DFM was noticeably
uncomfortable in their meeting and at one point said "Do you
think this is easy for me right now?" adding later "I don't
like this" (situation) when Hakala pressed the EU position.
Hakala expressed frustration to the Ambassador at the fact
that the ANS closure and the opposition eviction came only
two weeks after Aliyev signed the EU Neighborhood Action Plan
in Brussels, in which she had invested considerable effort.


2. (C) Hakala echoed the view of many observers, telling the
Ambassador that she found difficult to discern the driver of
these recent events. She noted Aliyev or his surrogates might
be attempting to clamp down on sources of dissent in the run
up to the 2008 presidential elections with the intention of
relaxing the restrictions during the campaign. Hakala
expressed concern that if the motivation behind the events
was related to the 2008 election, the opposition itself
followed by the NGO community, especially those funded by
foreign donors, would be the next logical targets. Hakala
also said that a senior GOAJ diplomat in Brussels privately
told EU officials that the recent turn of events in Baku was
surprising, and that a power struggle underway within the
Government between senior officials was driving these events.
Hakala also did not exclude the possibility of Russian
complicity, aimed at undermining Azerbaijan's stated goal of
Euro-atlantic integration.


3. (C) Late in the day Hakala briefed the Ambassador by phone
on her conversation with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov. Hakala
reported that the conversation went well. According to
Hakala, the FM more or less said that this would be worked
out, remarking that "bureaucratic stupid things like this
will happen." Mammadyarov said to Hakala, "I don't believe in
conspiracy theories but you start to believe in them when
something like this happens the week before the (Azerbaijani)
First Lady is scheduled to travel to Washington." FM
Mammadyarov urged Hakala to read Aliyev's statement in which
Aliyev said that if the NTRC's 11 points are fulfilled, ANS
can resume broadcasting. Mammadyarov told Hakala that ANS
Chairman Vahid Mustafayev understood this and has been in
contact with the NTRC. Hakala told Mammadyarov that the EU
would issue a statement at the OSCE Vienna Ministerial next
week. Making reference to "local traditions," Mammadyarov
told Hakala that it was unlikely that there would be a
resolution before the Ministerial. (Hakala said she
understood Mammadyarov to mean the need to save face.) FM
told Hakala that "this would be fixed" and that Aliyev
himself believes the ANS closure to a be temporary suspension
and not a termination, but that fixing it would take time.
Mammadyarov twice emphasized that the President insists that
everyone must play by the same rules and receive the same,
"equal" treatment, which Hakala understood to be in reference
to Russia. Hakala characterized Mammadyarov as uneasy and
added that he had hinted at personal problems being a factor
in the ANS closure. Hakala said that she and Mammadyarov will
next meet in Brussels.


4. (C) The Ambassador conveyed to Hakala that we want the
GOAJ to take action by the December 4 OSCE Ministerial in
Vienna. Hakala said she took the same message to Mammadyarov
and that the EU plans to make a statement at the November 30
OSCE PC, a second statement at the Ministerial December 4 and
to release an EU-wide statement from Brussels later next
week. Hakala agreed that the US and EU must remain in
lockstep in addressing the situation.
DERSE