MINOR PROTESTS MARK MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS VISIT AS

UNCLAS BAKU 000170

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN AND EUR/SNEC

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PHUM KDEM ASEC KPAO PREL PGOV AJ
SUBJECT: MINOR PROTESTS MARK MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS VISIT AS
PUBLIC CONTINUES TO REJECT IDEA OF COMPROMISE ON N-K

REF: 2005 BAKU 1923

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) The Karabakh Liberation Organization (KLO) once
again was up to its usual tactics during the visit of the
three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs January 31-February 1.
Ambassador Steven Mann, US Special Negotiator for the
conflict and Minsk Group Co-Chair, was met at the airport by
two noisy and pushy KLO protestors and press cameras.
Police detained one of the two protestors, who was
subsequently released. The KLO also attempted to stage a
protest outside the gates of the MFA prior to the Co-Chairs'
meeting with the Foreign Minister. About 25 people
attempted to assemble, but were quickly dispersed by police,
who detained 12 of the protestors. Police released the 12
shortly after the incident. Embassy security was on alert
throughout Mann's visit and no further incidents occurred.


2. (U) The primary message of the KLO, as is typical
(reftel),was that the Co-Chairs, whom the KLO believes are
biased against Azerbaijan and favor Armenia, should not be
negotiating a settlement of the conflict. In an interview
this week, the KLO leader stated that Azerbaijan has not
lost the war, because the war is still ongoing. He raised
the possibility of resuming the fight and categorically
rejected the notion of compromise.


3. (SBU) While the specific message of the KLO may or may
not resonate within Azerbaijani society, sentiments are
still deep-rooted within the population that Azerbaijan was
wronged and therefore should not compromise. This sentiment
was in full display during Ambassador Mann's February 1
address to the Azerbaijan Alumni Association, comprised of
individuals who have participated in US study programs.
Mann was pointedly questioned as to why Azerbaijan, which
had been illegally deprived of its territory, should
compromise. According to one young participant, Azerbaijan
has already offered "maximum" autonomy to Karabakh and that
the GOAJ should not cede any portion of the occupied
territories or the region of Nagorno Karabakh. He also
specifically said he took offense at the term "N-K and the
occupied territories." Using that terminology implies a
separate status for N-K when in fact, he said, the entire
region is occupied Azerbaijani territory and therefore
should be referred to as such.

COMMENT
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4. (SBU) From our observations, the GOAJ has much work to do
to prepare the public for any eventuality of a settlement,
particularly any settlement that might include loss of GOAJ
authority over any portion of the lands. We expect radical
groups such as the KLO to harbor strong emotions against any
concessions, but it is worrisome that a group of bright,
English-speaking, Western-educated individuals also so
vehemently rejects any notion of compromise. The GOAJ's
current public posture on the negotiations - focused largely
on the need to retain Azerbaijan's territorial integrity -
only reinforces the public's sense of injustice and
rejection of compromise. Absent a realistic, public debate
on the peace process, the Azerbaijani public likely will be
ill-prepared for any possible settlement.

HARNISH