PARTY LEADERS AND POLITICAL ANALYSTS DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001674

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: PARTY LEADERS AND POLITICAL ANALYSTS DISCUSS
DEMOCRACY IN AZERBAIJAN, N-K CONFLICT


Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a November 7 dinner hosted by the
Ambassador, a group of party leaders, Members of Parliament
(MPs) and political analysts discussed the political
situation in Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Leaders of the opposition parties shared their concerns about
democracy in Azerbaijan, specifically the problems with
freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. They said that the
current GOAJ leadership lacks the political will to make the
changes necessary to achieve democratic development. An MP
from the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party said that the country
is democratizing, and that there is freedom of speech in
Azerbaijan. An independent MP said that Azerbaijan is not a
democratic country, but is pursuing democracy, although there
are problems with freedom of speech and freedom of assembly.
He also said that it is the responsibility of the Azerbaijani
people to build democracy in Azerbaijan. The political
analysts noted that the GOAJ treats the opposition as an
enemy, and that the government should understand it is in the
country's best interest for the opposition to exist. The
group had a lively exchange on N-K, with independent
political analyst Arzu Abdullayeva urging the GOAJ to meet
leaders of the "so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic." While
ruling party MP Mubariz Gurbanli insisted that only Russia
had the power to resolve the conflict, opposition leader Lala
Shovket pledged that the opposition would support the GOAJ if
it reached a fair resolution on the conflict. The discussion
on N-K was exactly the sort of debate on the merits of a
negotiated solution the Azerbaijan needs to undertake. END
SUMMARY.

BILATERAL PRIORITIES
--------------


2. (C) On November 7, the Ambassador hosted a dinner with the
leaders of several political parties, MPs and political
analysts, as well as the Chair of the Central Election
Commission (CEC). Guests included ruling-party MP Mubariz
Gurbanli; opposition Musavat Party Chair Isa Gambar;
opposition Popular Front Party (PFP) Chair Ali Kerimli;
opposition Azerbaijan Liberal Party (ALP) Chair Lala Shovket;
head of the opposition Yeni Siyaset (YeS) bloc Eldar Namazov;
independent Democratic Reforms Party (DRP) Chair and MP Asim
Mollazade; political analysts Rasim Musabeyov, Leyla Alieva,
and Arzu Abdullayeva; and CEC Chair Mazahir Panahov. The
Ambassador outlined the three priorities in the bilateral
relationship: energy, security, and democracy, and
highlighted the five building blocks of democracy in which
the USG is actively engaged diplomatically and
programmatically rule of law, a free and independent media,
political process, an engaged, empowered, educated citizenry,
and respect for human rights. She also said, to general
agreement, that both political and economic reform are
critical to Azerbaijan's democratic development. The
Ambassador emphasized that "the best partners for the U.S.
are strong representative democracies that respect human
rights."

THE OPPOSITION'S TAKE ON THE POLITICAL SITUATION
-------------- ---


3. (C) Musavat Party Chair Isa Gambar said that the GOAJ
leadership does not possess the political will necessary for
democratic development. He also emphasized that although
President Bush waives Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act
on an annual basis, the Azerbaijani population wants Section
907 off the books. Head of the YeS bloc, Eldar Namazov, said
that most of the democratic steps the current GOAJ leadership
have taken were under direct pressure from the international
community. According to Namazov, the GOAJ is resistant to
democratic development and lacks political will to make the
necessary changes. ALP Chair Lala Shovket said that dialogue
between the ruling party and the opposition is not possible
because of the ruling party's hatred of the opposition, and
that the GOAJ is intent on eliminating the opposition before
the October 2008 Presidential Elections. According to
Shovket, Azerbaijani law supports democratic principles, but
these laws are for "export only," intended to appease the
international community while not being implemented in
practice. PFP Chair Ali Kerimli said that there has been
backsliding rather than democratic development. He said that
the only way for Azerbaijan to transition towards democracy
is to recognize the problems that exist and to hold an open
dialogue between the GOAJ and the opposition.

PRO-GOAJ AND INDEPENDENT VIEWS
--------------


4. (C) In stark contrast to the opposition leaders'
statements, ruling party MP Mubariz Gurbanli said that

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Azerbaijan is making active progress towards democratic
development. He said that "no country is satisfied with its
opposition" and that the only unresolved problem in
Azerbaijan is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. According to
Gurbanli, there is freedom of speech in Azerbaijan and
"everyone has the right to create an independent media
outlet." Independent MP and Chair of DRP Asim Mollazade spoke
up, saying "of course Azerbaijan is not a democratic
country," but that with the help of countries like the U.S.,
Azerbaijan is pursuing democracy. According to Mollazade, in
spite of Azerbaijan's successes, like the BTC pipeline, there
are still problems with freedom of speech and freedom of
assembly. He said that in order to achieve major democratic
progress, Azerbaijan needs a "generation change," because
Azerbaijan's youth have not been exposed to the Soviet
system. Mollazade concluded, saying that "it is the task of
Azerbaijanis to build our own democracy, but with the help of
our democratic friends, like the U.S., it can happen much
faster."


5. (C) Political analyst Arzu Abdullayeva said that in
Azerbaijan, the GOAJ considers the opposition to be the
enemy, and treats NGOs as if they are the opposition.
According to Abdullayeva, current pressures on Azerbaijan's
independent media pose a threat to democracy. Political
analyst Leyla Alieva said that because of its status as an
economic leader in the region, Azerbaijan has great reform
potential. She also said that at the highest level of
democracy, a government is tolerant of the opposition, and
that the GOAJ should understand it is in the country's best
interest for the opposition to exist. Ruling party MP Mubariz
Gurbanli interrupted, saying that according to political
science, if an opposition is unable to achieve its goals, it
should "leave the political arena" and another opposition
will arise.

N-K "BIGGEST PROBLEM"
--------------


6. (C) CEC Chair Mazahir Panahov said that the unresolved
conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is the biggest problem in the
country and is "not politicized." ALP Chair Lala Shovket said
that this is very painful to the Azerbaijani population and
that all nations have the right to territorial integrity. She
also said that a referendum on the future status of N-K would
be favorable to the Armenian side. Political analyst Arzu
Abdullayeva said that she had recently visited the occupied
territories, and had discussed the Minsk Group core
principles with a group of political analysts. According to
Abdullayeva, ministerial level visits to the occupied
territories from each side would help facilitate peace talks.
Gurbanli said that Russia is the only party that has the
power to solve the conflict, and if the GOAJ tried to
negotiate with Armenia, the opposition would accuse it of
being ready to concede Azerbaijani territory. Shovket
responded strongly, underscoring that the opposition would
support the GOAJ if it agreed to a fair resolution.
Abdullayeva concluded that the N-K conflict is "heavy in the
hearts" of the Azerbaijani people, and that the population
would be able to accept a compromise.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The lively exchange on N-K among the participants in
the dinner was a stunning change from the sloganeering and
posturing with which this group of politicians usually
addresses N-K. In our view, this is exactly the sort of
debate - encompassing creative ideas and a measured analysis
of the costs and benefits of a negotiated solution - that the
Azerbaijani public must undertake. Abdullayeva is interested
in fostering this debate, and hopes to pursue it through
separate meetings with the government and leading opposition
parties. We will meet her next week to further explore this
idea.
DERSE