READOUT ON EU TROIKA VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001534

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS EAID AJ IR AM GG
SUBJECT: READOUT ON EU TROIKA VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN

REF: BAKU 01433

Classified By: Ambassador Anne Derse for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 3 meeting with the Ambassador,
EU Special Representative Peter Semneby reviewed the EU
Troika's October 3 visit to Azerbaijan, in which the Troika
announced the completion of negotiations on Azerbaijan's
European Neighborhood Plan (ENP) Action Plan. During his
private meeting with the Troika, President Aliyev affirmed
Azerbaijan,s pro-Western foreign policy orientation and
reiterated his insistence that Nagorno-Karabakh cannot have
full independence. Aliyev also relayed his concerns over
Iran, telling the Troika that Iranian President Ahmadinejad
told him that "I deliberately burned all bridges" on
negotiations over his country's nuclear program. According
to Semneby, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov is scheduled to
attend an Action Plan signing ceremony in Brussels on
November 14. (President Aliyev also will be in Brussels on
November 8-9 to sign a EU-GOAJ Energy Memorandum and meet
with the NAC.) Semneby said there will be approximately
50-100 million euros available for Azerbaijan in the next
year as part of the ENP. END SUMMARY.

GOOD NEWS ON BAKU'S ACTION PLAN
--------------


2. (U) EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus
Peter Semneby met with the Ambassador on October 3 to review
the EU Troika's October 3 visit to Azerbaijan. The EU Troika
was in Baku as part of a broader trip to all three South
Caucasus states. The visit's purpose was to announce the
successful completion of consultations on the European
Neighborhood Plan (ENP) Action Plans with each country. A
joint EU-GOAJ statement at the conclusion of the visit noted,
"an agreement in principle has been reached on a final ENP
Action Plan text. The necessary steps can now be taken in
order to prepare the formal adoption of the Action Plan at
the next EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation Council, to be held on the
14th of November in Brussels."


3. (C) Semneby was upbeat about the EU's next steps on
Azerbaijan's ENP Action Plan. According to Semneby, the EU
Commission has approved the text of the Action Plan and there
will be a signing ceremony in Brussels on November 14.
Semneby said that Foreign Minister Mammadyarov plans to
attend the ceremony. He also noted that President Aliyev
plans to be in Brussels November 8-9 to sign an EU-GOAJ
Energy Memorandum. Despite the successful conclusion of the
EU Troika visit, Semneby said that the visit itself had been
uncertain until the very last moment, due to several
unresolved issues (NOTE: Per Finland's roving Ambassador to
the South Caucasus Terhi Hakala, Azerbaijan suggested
last-minute changes to language regarding the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in response to language included in
the Armenian Action Plan that nearly derailed the entire EAP.
The Troika agreed to issue a statement at the Cooperation
Council to address the GOAJ's concerns. - reftel.)


4. (C) Semneby said the amount of EU assistance for
Azerbaijan under the ENP program has not been determined.
There will be approximately 50-100 million euros per year
available for each of the three South Caucasus states. He
explained that it is difficult to provide a more precise
figure because there is one budget for all countries included
in the ENP program and the funding priorities are still
unclear. (NOTE: The ENP program includes 16 countries,
including the three South Caucasus states. The other states
are close to the EU's borders in the Mediterranean Sea and
the Middle East.) Semneby stressed that the funding will
focus on institution-building. The specific funding details
will be made public in November when Azerbaijan's Action Plan
will be signed. Semneby was receptive to the Ambassador's
comment on the importance of coordinating USG-EU assistance
efforts.

EU TROIKA'S VISIT WITH PRESIDENT ALIYEV
--------------


5. (C) Semneby gave additional information on that day's EU
Troika's meeting with President Aliyev. According to
Semneby, Aliyev stressed the GOAJ's pro-Western foreign
policy orientation, remarking that "without a western vector"
to Azerbaijan's foreign policy, "we would be nothing."
Aliyev also referred to Europe as Azerbaijan's "closest
anchor" in its western foreign policy orientation. Semneby
highlighted Aliyev's remark that the GOAJ "does not want to
be lazy, self-confident, or arrogant" in approaching its

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commitments with the EU contained in the Action Plan.
Semneby was upbeat that Aliyev's comment--combined with the
Action's Plans inclusion of benchmarks and periodic reviews
for measuring progress on the Plan's goals--could open the
door to deeper EU engagement with the GOAJ on democratic
progress.


6. (C) Aliyev shared his perspectives on Nagorno-Karabakh
with the EU Troika. Regarding NK's status, Aliyev reportedly
said that NK "can have anything (it) wants, just not formal
independence." Semneby commented that Aliyev's statement may
reflect an increased willingness to make compromises in
settling the NK conflict. Semneby made the point to Aliyev
that normalized ties between Azerbaijan and Armenia could
benefit both countries, including lessening Russian leverage
within the Caucasus region. Aliyev offered no comment on
this point. Aliyev also highlighted the GOAJ's progress in
providing (unspecified) assistance to the residents of NK.


7. (C) Semneby briefly discussed with Aliyev the recent
Georgian-Russian row. Aliyev commented that the Georgians
had not handled the spat well. Aliyev said that it would
have been better for the GOG to have quietly and quickly
turned the accused Russian spies over to Moscow. Speaking on
the EU's perception of Georgia's relations with Russia,
Semneby told the Ambassador that EU members generally view
Sakaashvilli as being overly provocative. Semneby noted,
however, that Tbilisi has an opportunity in the context of
the current Georgian-Russian row to change this perception by
constraining itself and refusing to overreact.

ALIYEV'S COMMENTS ON AHMADINEJAD
--------------


8. (C) Semneby noted that Aliyev made several points on Iran.
Aliyev said he believes that based on his discussions with
Ahmadinejad, Iran will never give up its nuclear program,
despite the USG and other states' negotiating efforts.
Aliyev said Iranian President Ahmadinejad told him that "I
burned all my bridges" on the nuclear negotiations and
there's "no going back." Semneby said he understood this
comment to mean that Ahmadinejad intentionally had derailed
negotiations and had no intention of halting Tehran's nuclear
ambitions. Aliyev also said to Semneby that Ahmadinejad was
very different than former Iranian President Khatami.
Whereas the former President and he would discuss poetry and
art, Ahmadinejad only wants to talk about "weapons." Aliyev
also stressed the need to incorporate Iran into broader
regional programs to make Tehran's behavior more predictable.



9. (C) Aliyev said that Iran and other regional neighbors
would take advantage of Azerbaijan if it introduced "full
democracy." Aliyev said that the GOAJ needed "safeguards" to
prevent Azerbaijan's neighbors from meddling in Azerbaijan's
affairs. In response to the Ambassador's request for
clarification on what Aliyev meant by "safeguards," Semneby
noted that Aliyev did not elaborate on this point.

OSCE FIRES CBM A STEP FORWARD
--------------


10. (C) Semneby remarked to the Ambassador that the OSCE's
ecological assessment mission (charged with investigating
fires in the occupied territories) had arrived in Azerbaijan
and was making progress toward beginning its mission.
Semneby was hopeful that this mission could lead to
additional confidence-building measures between the GOAJ and
the GOAM.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) The successful conclusion of EU-GOAJ negotiations
over the text of the ENP Action Plan will open the door to
deeper EU engagement with the GOAJ. Enhanced EU-GOAJ
engagement can aid in advancing the US interests of energy
diversification and reform with the GOAJ. It will be
important to coordinate US-EU efforts. Semneby was confident
that EU will open an office in Baku early next year.
DERSE