Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAKU1533
2006-10-20 12:43:00
SECRET
Embassy Baku
Cable title:
NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN WITH PRESIDENT
how-toVZCZCXRO5664 PP RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK DE RUEHKB #1533/01 2931243 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 201243Z OCT 06 FM AMEMBASSY BAKU TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1517 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 001533
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM KNNP MASS MCAP MNUC PARM PINR IR AJ
SUBJECT: NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN WITH PRESIDENT
ALIYEV
REF: 29 SEPTEMBER 2006 BAHL-DERSE EMAIL
BAKU 00001533 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 001533
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM KNNP MASS MCAP MNUC PARM PINR IR AJ
SUBJECT: NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN WITH PRESIDENT
ALIYEV
REF: 29 SEPTEMBER 2006 BAHL-DERSE EMAIL
BAKU 00001533 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
1. (S) Summary: During his 12 October call on President
Aliyev, NEA PDAS Jeffrey, accompanied by the Ambassador,
encouraged Azerbaijan to support a unified international
front in response to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Reviewing
recent U.S. efforts to counter the Iranian nuclear threat,
PDAS Jeffrey was also interested in learning how heightened
tensions with Iran might affect U.S. friends and allies.
Explaining Azerbaijan's complex relationship with Iran,
Aliyev said that Iran was a threat to Azerbaijan with or
without nuclear weapons. Expressing a desire to work with
the U.S. on Iran, Aliyev cautioned that Iran's President
Ahmadinejad had recently warned him that "we will attack the
place from where we are attacked." Therefore, Aliyev said,
it was very important that Azerbaijan clearly understands
U.S. plans and intentions on Iran so that "we can be
prepared." Aliyev also expressed concern about Iran's role
in proliferation, arguing that Iran's military industries are
very advanced. Aliyev described Iran as "united as never
before" on the nuclear issue, noting Ahmadinejad's comment
that he has "burned his bridges on this issue," and said that
Iran felt "comfortable" that it could withstand U.S.-backed
efforts to pressure the regime. While skeptical that U.S.
multilateral or unilateral efforts would be capable of
changing the Ahmadinejad regime's behavior, President Aliyev
reaffirmed his country's "strategic partnership" with the
U.S., stating that the U.S. "can count on us." End Summary.
--------------
Iran a "Headache" for Azerbaijan
--------------
2. (S) During an October 12 meeting with President Aliyev
focused on Iran, visiting NEA PDAS Jeffrey, accompanied by
the Ambassador, stated that the U.S. sees Iran as the
greatest single threat to world security. Explaining that
his trip's purpose was to brief friends and allies about
recent U.S. efforts vis-a-vis Iran, PDAS Jeffrey also
expressed an interest in President Aliyev's advice and
counsel. President Aliyev said that Iran was a constant
problem for Azerbaijan and a "headache" no matter what kind
of regime is in power. He attributed this to the many
connections between the two countries, to include a shared
border and millions of ethnic Azeris living in Iran.
President Aliyev said Iran doesn't care about diplomatic
norms or normal behavior, often trying to interfere in other
countries' domestic affairs. However, Aliyev warned,
destabilization in Iran could result in refugee inflows into
Azerbaijan, a major concern from his standpoint as Iranians
"are a very religious people." In this regard, Aliyev said
that a ten percent change in Azerbaijan's population (due to
refugee flows) would "change the situation in Azerbaijan."
To counter this threat, President Aliyev said that Azerbaijan
would "control" its entire border by 2008.
3. (S) Stating that some countries in the region do not see
the Iranian nuclear threat as an urgent one, Aliyev
attributed this view to the fact that they "are not potential
targets." He said that the U.S. concern about the Iranian
nuclear program was "understandable." Expressing his
interest to work with the U.S. on Iran, Aliyev said that
President Ahmadinejad had recently told him that "we will
attack the place from where we are attacked." Therefore,
Aliyev said that it was very important for Azerbaijan to have
an understanding of what might happen to Iran so that "we can
be prepared."
--------------
U.S. Efforts vis-a-vis Iran
--------------
4. (S) PDAS Jeffrey said that Iran's nuclear portfolio was
not the only concern of the U.S.: Iran's support of
terrorism, its human rights violations (to include those of
ethnic Azeris),and its support of Hezbollah were others.
Stating that the nuclear threat was the most important, PDAS
Jeffrey also pointed out that an Iranian nuclear capability
would also give Iran the ability to threaten neighbors with
both conventional and/or asymmetric threats, with threats to
Iranian neighbors who are partners and allies of the U.S.
also being threats to the U.S. PDAS Jeffrey assured
BAKU 00001533 002.2 OF 003
President Aliyev that the U.S. would proceed carefully with
P5 1 efforts and in its efforts with other friends and
allies. He outlined the U.S. interest in a graduated
response, focusing on nuclear and missile programs first,
with more generalized economic sanctions not currently on the
table. PDAS Jeffrey said that absent support, unilateral or
regional sanctions would not be effective. He also told
President Aliyev that his influence with Russia to support
U.S. efforts would be important. PDAS Jeffrey stressed that
the U.S. was not seeking to overthrow the Ahmadinejad regime,
only to change its behavior.
--------------
Iran "United as Never Before"
--------------
5. (S) President Aliyev said that Iranians were united on
the nuclear issue - "united as never before" - and that it
would be difficult to influence them. Aliyev told Jeffrey
that Ahmadinejad had told him in a recent visit to Baku that
"we burned all the bridges - we will not step back." Aliyev
said that Iranians feel comfortable about the Security
Council, knowing that China will veto any U.S. efforts.
Aliyev said that Russia's leadership was concerned and had
even told him that "we will not allow them to get nuclear
weapons." Aliyev said, based on the information he was
receiving, that it was difficult to believe that Iran would
change its behavior. He also expressed concern that other
countries - "whoever has money" - would also seek nuclear
weapons, Iran becoming a proliferator and undermining world
security.
6. (S) PDAS Jeffrey acknowledged President Aliyev's
concerns. Speaking to the Chinese issue, PDAS Jeffrey said
that the U.S. believes that Iran is not evaluating China
correctly, especially after events in the DPRK. According to
Jeffrey, U.S.-led sanctions would not bite deep, but would
slow the nuclear program. As to Iranian enrichment efforts,
Jeffrey said that an arms embargo was possible if Iran did
not cease its enrichment efforts and that such an embargo
would affect Iran's arms purchases. PDAS Jeffrey stated that
Ahmadinejad has his own problems internally, so the
international community had to be committed to this track to
maintain maximum pressure. Jeffrey also stated that the U.S.
would consult with neighboring states.
--------------
Aliyev Skeptical
--------------
7. (S) President Aliyev noted a dichotomy in Iranian
behavior. Using the example of the many Iranians who come to
Azerbaijan, Aliyev said that once here, "they drink alcohol
and the women don't even cover." Aliyev said that in Iran
there was one "official" behavior and another unofficial
behavior. Recounting his 2005 official visit to Iran,
President Aliyev said that his impression of things in Iran
was "not very optimistic" and that the people "looked
suppressed." Despite this, Aliyev said that Iranians had a
high tolerance for suppression and that a popular movement
probably would not change things in Iran. As evidence,
Aliyev pointed to the recent May 2006 ethnic Azeri protests
and the fact that they had been unsuccessful in bringing
about any betterment in the treatment of Iranian ethnic
Azeris.
--------------
Aliyev on a Potential Arms Embargo
--------------
8. (S) Concerning an arms embargo, Aliyev said that Iran's
military industries were very developed, more so than
Pakistan's. He attributed this to Russian and Chinese
technology and said that Iran has its own arms industry and
was capable of producing its own submarines, planes, and
rockets. As such, he did not know how effective a possible
arms embargo would be. In this regard, Aliyev said that U.S.
efforts would "not be easy."
--------------
"You Can Count On Us"
--------------
9. (S) PDAS Jeffrey said that Iran's population stands at 70
million, that it has a small economy, and that its military
BAKU 00001533 003.2 OF 003
has weaknesses Jeffrey said that the key for frontline
countres was to cooperate with the international communiy,
highlighting efforts such as Azerbaijan's partcipation in
the Partnership for Peace program. DAS Jeffrey underscored
that the U.S. is willingto take risks for international
security. Presient Aliyev then expressed his view that Iran
is ot isolated and that it has strong business relations
with European countries such as Germany and France, Japan,
and the Muslim world. Also, despite tensions with Arab
countries, Aliyev said that he believed that they would also
not seek to isolate Iran. He said that it would be difficult
to influence Iran as there was no broad group with which to
pursue political or economic sanctions. Aliyev again stated
that Iran "feels comfortable." Aliyev added that the P5 1
format could be more helpful if it were transformed into a
broader international approach. PDAS Jeffrey responded that
the U.S. would seek a broad approach, that this would not be
easy, although most countries do not want to see Iran with a
nuclear weapon. Ending the meeting, President Aliyev said
that Azerbaijan's "strategic partnership" with the U.S.
covers "all areas," his final words being "you can count on
us."
10. (S) Comment: President Aliyev unequivocally expressed
his willingness to work with the U.S. on Iran. At the same
time, given Iran's proximity to Azerbaijan and the many
links, Azerbaijan is also clearly sensitive to the fallout of
any increased U.S./international pressure on Iran, especially
given IRI bellicosity, as signified by Ahmadinejad's recent
warning that Iran would "attack the place from where we are
attacked." In this connection, Aliyev also underscored the
importance of Azerbaijan being aware of U.S. plans and
intentions for Iran, so that Azerbaijan can be prepared for
repercussions of U.S. or allied actions. We should build on
PDAS Jeffrey's visit and U/S Burns' discussions with Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov at UNGA (ref) to deepen our dialogue
with Azerbaijan on this significant threat. End Comment.
11. (U) PDAS Jeffrey did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
DERSE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM KNNP MASS MCAP MNUC PARM PINR IR AJ
SUBJECT: NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN WITH PRESIDENT
ALIYEV
REF: 29 SEPTEMBER 2006 BAHL-DERSE EMAIL
BAKU 00001533 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
1. (S) Summary: During his 12 October call on President
Aliyev, NEA PDAS Jeffrey, accompanied by the Ambassador,
encouraged Azerbaijan to support a unified international
front in response to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Reviewing
recent U.S. efforts to counter the Iranian nuclear threat,
PDAS Jeffrey was also interested in learning how heightened
tensions with Iran might affect U.S. friends and allies.
Explaining Azerbaijan's complex relationship with Iran,
Aliyev said that Iran was a threat to Azerbaijan with or
without nuclear weapons. Expressing a desire to work with
the U.S. on Iran, Aliyev cautioned that Iran's President
Ahmadinejad had recently warned him that "we will attack the
place from where we are attacked." Therefore, Aliyev said,
it was very important that Azerbaijan clearly understands
U.S. plans and intentions on Iran so that "we can be
prepared." Aliyev also expressed concern about Iran's role
in proliferation, arguing that Iran's military industries are
very advanced. Aliyev described Iran as "united as never
before" on the nuclear issue, noting Ahmadinejad's comment
that he has "burned his bridges on this issue," and said that
Iran felt "comfortable" that it could withstand U.S.-backed
efforts to pressure the regime. While skeptical that U.S.
multilateral or unilateral efforts would be capable of
changing the Ahmadinejad regime's behavior, President Aliyev
reaffirmed his country's "strategic partnership" with the
U.S., stating that the U.S. "can count on us." End Summary.
--------------
Iran a "Headache" for Azerbaijan
--------------
2. (S) During an October 12 meeting with President Aliyev
focused on Iran, visiting NEA PDAS Jeffrey, accompanied by
the Ambassador, stated that the U.S. sees Iran as the
greatest single threat to world security. Explaining that
his trip's purpose was to brief friends and allies about
recent U.S. efforts vis-a-vis Iran, PDAS Jeffrey also
expressed an interest in President Aliyev's advice and
counsel. President Aliyev said that Iran was a constant
problem for Azerbaijan and a "headache" no matter what kind
of regime is in power. He attributed this to the many
connections between the two countries, to include a shared
border and millions of ethnic Azeris living in Iran.
President Aliyev said Iran doesn't care about diplomatic
norms or normal behavior, often trying to interfere in other
countries' domestic affairs. However, Aliyev warned,
destabilization in Iran could result in refugee inflows into
Azerbaijan, a major concern from his standpoint as Iranians
"are a very religious people." In this regard, Aliyev said
that a ten percent change in Azerbaijan's population (due to
refugee flows) would "change the situation in Azerbaijan."
To counter this threat, President Aliyev said that Azerbaijan
would "control" its entire border by 2008.
3. (S) Stating that some countries in the region do not see
the Iranian nuclear threat as an urgent one, Aliyev
attributed this view to the fact that they "are not potential
targets." He said that the U.S. concern about the Iranian
nuclear program was "understandable." Expressing his
interest to work with the U.S. on Iran, Aliyev said that
President Ahmadinejad had recently told him that "we will
attack the place from where we are attacked." Therefore,
Aliyev said that it was very important for Azerbaijan to have
an understanding of what might happen to Iran so that "we can
be prepared."
--------------
U.S. Efforts vis-a-vis Iran
--------------
4. (S) PDAS Jeffrey said that Iran's nuclear portfolio was
not the only concern of the U.S.: Iran's support of
terrorism, its human rights violations (to include those of
ethnic Azeris),and its support of Hezbollah were others.
Stating that the nuclear threat was the most important, PDAS
Jeffrey also pointed out that an Iranian nuclear capability
would also give Iran the ability to threaten neighbors with
both conventional and/or asymmetric threats, with threats to
Iranian neighbors who are partners and allies of the U.S.
also being threats to the U.S. PDAS Jeffrey assured
BAKU 00001533 002.2 OF 003
President Aliyev that the U.S. would proceed carefully with
P5 1 efforts and in its efforts with other friends and
allies. He outlined the U.S. interest in a graduated
response, focusing on nuclear and missile programs first,
with more generalized economic sanctions not currently on the
table. PDAS Jeffrey said that absent support, unilateral or
regional sanctions would not be effective. He also told
President Aliyev that his influence with Russia to support
U.S. efforts would be important. PDAS Jeffrey stressed that
the U.S. was not seeking to overthrow the Ahmadinejad regime,
only to change its behavior.
--------------
Iran "United as Never Before"
--------------
5. (S) President Aliyev said that Iranians were united on
the nuclear issue - "united as never before" - and that it
would be difficult to influence them. Aliyev told Jeffrey
that Ahmadinejad had told him in a recent visit to Baku that
"we burned all the bridges - we will not step back." Aliyev
said that Iranians feel comfortable about the Security
Council, knowing that China will veto any U.S. efforts.
Aliyev said that Russia's leadership was concerned and had
even told him that "we will not allow them to get nuclear
weapons." Aliyev said, based on the information he was
receiving, that it was difficult to believe that Iran would
change its behavior. He also expressed concern that other
countries - "whoever has money" - would also seek nuclear
weapons, Iran becoming a proliferator and undermining world
security.
6. (S) PDAS Jeffrey acknowledged President Aliyev's
concerns. Speaking to the Chinese issue, PDAS Jeffrey said
that the U.S. believes that Iran is not evaluating China
correctly, especially after events in the DPRK. According to
Jeffrey, U.S.-led sanctions would not bite deep, but would
slow the nuclear program. As to Iranian enrichment efforts,
Jeffrey said that an arms embargo was possible if Iran did
not cease its enrichment efforts and that such an embargo
would affect Iran's arms purchases. PDAS Jeffrey stated that
Ahmadinejad has his own problems internally, so the
international community had to be committed to this track to
maintain maximum pressure. Jeffrey also stated that the U.S.
would consult with neighboring states.
--------------
Aliyev Skeptical
--------------
7. (S) President Aliyev noted a dichotomy in Iranian
behavior. Using the example of the many Iranians who come to
Azerbaijan, Aliyev said that once here, "they drink alcohol
and the women don't even cover." Aliyev said that in Iran
there was one "official" behavior and another unofficial
behavior. Recounting his 2005 official visit to Iran,
President Aliyev said that his impression of things in Iran
was "not very optimistic" and that the people "looked
suppressed." Despite this, Aliyev said that Iranians had a
high tolerance for suppression and that a popular movement
probably would not change things in Iran. As evidence,
Aliyev pointed to the recent May 2006 ethnic Azeri protests
and the fact that they had been unsuccessful in bringing
about any betterment in the treatment of Iranian ethnic
Azeris.
--------------
Aliyev on a Potential Arms Embargo
--------------
8. (S) Concerning an arms embargo, Aliyev said that Iran's
military industries were very developed, more so than
Pakistan's. He attributed this to Russian and Chinese
technology and said that Iran has its own arms industry and
was capable of producing its own submarines, planes, and
rockets. As such, he did not know how effective a possible
arms embargo would be. In this regard, Aliyev said that U.S.
efforts would "not be easy."
--------------
"You Can Count On Us"
--------------
9. (S) PDAS Jeffrey said that Iran's population stands at 70
million, that it has a small economy, and that its military
BAKU 00001533 003.2 OF 003
has weaknesses Jeffrey said that the key for frontline
countres was to cooperate with the international communiy,
highlighting efforts such as Azerbaijan's partcipation in
the Partnership for Peace program. DAS Jeffrey underscored
that the U.S. is willingto take risks for international
security. Presient Aliyev then expressed his view that Iran
is ot isolated and that it has strong business relations
with European countries such as Germany and France, Japan,
and the Muslim world. Also, despite tensions with Arab
countries, Aliyev said that he believed that they would also
not seek to isolate Iran. He said that it would be difficult
to influence Iran as there was no broad group with which to
pursue political or economic sanctions. Aliyev again stated
that Iran "feels comfortable." Aliyev added that the P5 1
format could be more helpful if it were transformed into a
broader international approach. PDAS Jeffrey responded that
the U.S. would seek a broad approach, that this would not be
easy, although most countries do not want to see Iran with a
nuclear weapon. Ending the meeting, President Aliyev said
that Azerbaijan's "strategic partnership" with the U.S.
covers "all areas," his final words being "you can count on
us."
10. (S) Comment: President Aliyev unequivocally expressed
his willingness to work with the U.S. on Iran. At the same
time, given Iran's proximity to Azerbaijan and the many
links, Azerbaijan is also clearly sensitive to the fallout of
any increased U.S./international pressure on Iran, especially
given IRI bellicosity, as signified by Ahmadinejad's recent
warning that Iran would "attack the place from where we are
attacked." In this connection, Aliyev also underscored the
importance of Azerbaijan being aware of U.S. plans and
intentions for Iran, so that Azerbaijan can be prepared for
repercussions of U.S. or allied actions. We should build on
PDAS Jeffrey's visit and U/S Burns' discussions with Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov at UNGA (ref) to deepen our dialogue
with Azerbaijan on this significant threat. End Comment.
11. (U) PDAS Jeffrey did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
DERSE