Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAKU1444
2006-10-04 08:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN'S OCTOBER 6 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: ALL

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ECON EAGR AJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9219
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHKB #1444/01 2770847
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 040847Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1377
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 001444 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ECON EAGR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S OCTOBER 6 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: ALL
POLITICS ARE LOCAL

REF: BAKU 1019

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 001444

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ECON EAGR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S OCTOBER 6 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: ALL
POLITICS ARE LOCAL

REF: BAKU 1019

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: As Azerbaijan prepares to hold partial
municipal elections on October 6, campaigning has proceeded
quietly and calmly, with far greater interest in rural areas
than in Baku. 4,562 candidates remain in competition for
1,931 seats. Candidates are actively campaigning by
word-of-mouth; because the majority of municipalities
participating in the elections are comprised of small
villages, media-based campaign methods are not necessary. The
issues dominating debate are primarily matters of living
conditions and infrastructure: unemployment, the lack of
adequate water supply, poor access to schools and hospitals,
and the high price of agricultural inputs. Central Election
Commission (CEC) posters notifying the population of the
upcoming elections are displayed on virtually all public
buildings in the participating municipalities. Both the
candidates and the Constituency Election Commissions'
(ConECs) members are convinced that most of the population is
aware of the elections, and expect high voter turn-out. In
coordination with the international community, post will
observe voting on October 6. END SUMMARY

ELECTIONS LOGISTICS
--------------


2. (C) Rovzat Gasimov, Head of the International Relations
Department of the CEC reports that countrywide, campaign
season is running quite smoothly. As of September 28, only
one complaint had been filed. This was from a group of
candidates from ConEC 59 (Salyan),who had been illegally
occupying 25 hectares of land, which rendered them ineligible
as candidates. The Municipal Counci insisted that the
candidates either become lega residents or withdraw their
candidacies. After ivestigating the situation, the CEC ruled
the complaint invalid.


3. (C) As printed on the official ballots, 4,562 candidates
remain in competition for a total of 1,931 seats. 248 of

these candidates are women, approximately five percent. 32
international observers and 9,016 local observers are
registered. According to Gasmiov, 3,209 of the local
observers are affiliated with various political parties. In a
September 14 statement to the press, CEC secretary Natiq
Mammadov said that none of the international organizations
have appealed to the CEC to conduct exit polls. Mammadov said
that the CEC and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had
solicited several organizations, but had not yet received any
response. According to Mammadov, the CEC does not interfere
in the conduct of exit polls, and prefers that they are
conducted by "influential and neutral" organizations.

CONEC MEMBERS COMMENT ON ELECTION CLIMATE
--------------


4. (C) In a late-August trip through Azerbaijan's
central-southern regions, Poloff met with approximately 60
candidates from the villages of Khanlarkand and Cholpi, both
in the Saatli region; Mamishlar, in the Sabirabad region, and
Mazrali, in the Imishli region, as well as members of the
ConECs from each region. The members of the ConECs told
Poloff that they were following all of the CEC-prescribed
fraud-prevention measures. ConEC members have noticed a
tendency of word-of-mouth campaigning, particularly in the
small villages where media-based campaigning is not
necessary. Overall, the ConECs anticipate a voter turnout of
between fifty and fifty-five percent. According to Arif
Aliyev, the Chairman of ConEC 62 (Saatli),the recent
internal disputes within several opposition parties have not
hurt candidate participation in the Municipal Elections.
Aliyev said that the opposition's decision to boycott the
elections has hurt party membership rather than participation
in the elections - a phenomenon reflected in the registration
of approximately half of this constituency's candidates as
independent. (Note: The opposition Azadliq bloc is boycotting
the elections, as is Musavat, but the latter granted party
members permission to run as independents.) One member of
ConEC 63 said that since the 2003 Presidential Elections, he
has noticed a growing interest in the elections process. He
said that for the first time during the 2005 Parliamentary
Elections, voters cared enough about the outcome of the
elections to file complaints of fraud and irregularities.
Members of the other ConECs noted similar trends in their
respective regions.

CANDIDATES EXPLAIN THE ISSUES...
--------------


5. (C) By far, the biggest issue raised by candidates from

BAKU 00001444 002 OF 003


Saatli, Sabirabad, and Imishli was the lack of water supply -
critical in this agriculturally-dominated area. The
candidates - the majority of whom are farmers representing
constituencies largely comprised of farmers - expressed
frustration that their crops were "dying in the sun,"
rendering them unable to provide for their families.
Candidates in the other regions noted the inadequate
infrastructure for both irrigation and drinking water. Many
complained that even if they were able to water their crops,
they cannot afford the high price of other agricultural
inputs, such as the chemicals necessary to treat the crops,
and that they have no access to loans or lines of credit that
would allow them to purchase the technical equipment needed
to cultivate their land. In addition, farmers are
experiencing increasing difficulty in selling their crops at
a reasonable price. Several candidates explained to Poloff
that the current low price of cotton does not make it
possible to make a profit. They said that because of the lack
of competition, two local cotton monopolies keep the price
artificially low. Candidates in Mamishlar also said that they
face similar problems with growing wheat: that because mills
are purchasing cheaper wheat from abroad, local farmers are
unable to sell their product.


6. (C) Other than agricultural issues, problems with
infrastructure, such as the lack of access to schools and
hospitals and the poor quality of roads topped candidates'
concerns, as did unemployment. Candidates in Cholpi said that
their children have to walk an unreasonable distance to the
nearest school, which is a particular problem in the winter,
because many families cannot afford the warm clothing
necessary to protect children from harsh weather. Residents
of several of the other villages said that they are located
closer to schools, but worry that the nearest hospitals are
located too far away to be accessed quickly in the case of an
emergency. In addition, trained medical professionals -
similar to professionals in many other fields - have little
incentive to stay in the regions, preferring to work in Baku.
Unemployment plagues each of these villages - outside of
agriculture, options are severely limited. One candidate from
Mezrali said that the newly-constructed Imishli Sugar
Factory, which is credited with bringing much-needed
development to the region and employs approximately 2,000
workers, is located too far away to be a viable employment
option for most villagers.

...AND ADDRESS GOAJ EFFORTS
--------------


7. (C) A few candidates touched upon President Aliyev's
Regional Development Program, explaining that although there
has been some improvement of roads under the program, it has
done nothing concerning the lack of water supply. One
candidate from Mamishlar said that the program benefits the
regional centers, but not the villages, and that the projects
are not helping with unemployment, because locals do not
posses the technical skills required for the jobs that have
been created. Many candidates said that they have raised
these problems with their Members of Parliament (MPs),with
varied results. Those in MP Jalal Aliyev's constituency
complained that they had only seen Aliyev a handful of times,
and that he had made promises but never followed through.
(Note: Aliyev is the uncle of President Ilham Aliyev and is
an influential member of the ruling party.) In contrast,
those in opposition MP Iltizam Akbarli's constituency said
that Akbarli is quite concerned with their problems and has
been helpful, but that because of the limited authority of
MPs in Azerbaijan, he has not been able to do enough.
Virtually all candidates complained of the response from
local government officials, saying that because the
municipalities are unable to collect taxes from the
impoverished citizenry, they have been rendered useless. Many
also said that the local Executive Committee (ExComm) offices
make the situation worse. For example, several candidates
complained that the Imishli ExComm office interferes in the
distribution of municipal lands, ensuring that prime pieces
of land are given to their friends and families.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The flurry of pre-elections chatter in these villages
is a stark contrast from Baku, where there is scarce mention
of the Municipal Elections -- likely because none of Baku's
municipal seats will be contested on October 6. Although
rural candidates are not campaigning with posters and large
events, they are very involved in spreading the word about
their candidacies through conversations in tea houses and
other gathering spots. The dominant issues are by far bread
and butter political issues - voters are concerned with
problems that directly affect their standard of living. In

BAKU 00001444 003 OF 003


coordination with other members of the international
community, post will observe voting on October 6, and will
continue to urge locally elected officials to play a greater
role in government.
DERSE