Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAKU1269
2006-08-28 04:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN: SEPTEMBER 2007 BAKU CONSENSUS

Tags:  ECON PREL EFIN ETRD AJ 
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RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKB #1269 2400417
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 280417Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1148
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0120
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1710
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0456
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA SZ 0189
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0162
C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001269 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

GENEVA FOR AMBASSADOR ALLGEIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: ECON PREL EFIN ETRD AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: SEPTEMBER 2007 BAKU CONSENSUS
CONFERENCE PLANNED


Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, per reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001269

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

GENEVA FOR AMBASSADOR ALLGEIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: ECON PREL EFIN ETRD AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: SEPTEMBER 2007 BAKU CONSENSUS
CONFERENCE PLANNED


Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, per reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) Copenhagen Business School Professor and Director
for the Copenhagen Consensus Center Bjorn Lomborg and UNDP
Head Marco Borsotti briefed Ambassador Derse August 24 on the
planned September 2007 Baku Consensus conference organized by
Lomborg. The Baku Consensus will be modeled on the May 2004
Copenhagen Consensus that identified and prioritized possible
policy options for improving global human welfare and in
particular that of developing countries. The Copenhagen
Consensus identified 10 key policy areas, including
governance, migration, communicable diseases, hunger and
malnutrition and trade reform. Lomborg, noting the massive
inflows of oil revenue into Azerbaijan, stated that there are
plenty of challenges facing the country and a Baku Consensus
could help the Government of Azerbaijan make the right policy
decisions. The local press coverage of Lomborg meetings with
the President and other high-level ministers was extensive,
raising the profile of the initiative.


2. (C) Lomborg and Borsotti told the Ambassador that they had
briefed President Aliyev and most of the GOAJ ministers on
the Baku Consensus idea and received overwhelming support.
Lomborg and Borsotti attended a dinner with Finance Minister
Sharifov, Economic Development Minister Babayev and National
Bank Chairman Rustamov in which the three discussed the Baku
Consensus idea and potential policy options and goals.
Lomborg stated that UNDP has provided the initial seed money
for the conference and that the GOAJ will most likely finance
the USD 1 million budget for the conference. The GOAJ is set
to make its decision on the Baku Consensus in October and
planning would begin immediately thereafter.


3. (SBU) Similar to the Copenhagen Consensus format, the Baku
Consensus will include various panels of international and
Azerbaijani experts and youth that would develop a list of
priorities and challenges facing Azerbaijan as it oil
revenues increase dramatically over the next 20 years. In
addition, the Baku Consensus would organize regional "town
hall" meetings to include opinions and views from the entire
country. At the end of the process, the Baku Consensus would
present its findings to President Aliyev and the GOAJ.


4. (SBU) The Ambassador raised the importance of looking at
corruption and good governance issues and the possible areas
for solutions. Lomborg noted that the Baku Consensus should
highlight the need for "trade-offs." Borsotti added that the
Baku Consensus discussions could provide leverage for the
Revenue Management Group discussions between the IFIs and
international donor community and the GOAJ to increase
economic dialogue. Azerbaijan's leading role in the
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative also could
provide a useful subject for continued discussion on the
importance of economic development.


5. (C) Both the Ambassador and Borsotti agreed that the Baku
Consensus concept was timely as the GOAJ does not have much
time left to prepare its economy and population for massive
inflows of petrodollars. Borsotti told the Ambassador that
Sharifov and Babayev indicated that Azerbaijan will receive
an additional USD 12 billion in 2006 due to higher
international oil prices. Turning to Azerbaijan's interest
in WTO accession, Borsotti told the Ambassador that he
believed the GOAJ did not expect further investment outside
of the oil sector and consequently did not see the benefits
of joining the WTO. In addition, he thought the GOAJ
understood the impediments to WTO accession, including
rampant corruption. The Ambassador said that she would
continue to press the GOAJ on WTO membership. He nonetheless
believed that the friends of Azerbaijan needed to continue to
make the case and urge progress.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The Baku Consensus process could not be
more timely as Azerbaijan's oil revenues increase and the
government struggles to prepare the economy. The meeting
could focus both the GOAJ and the general public on the key
challenges facing the country and lead to a broader dialogue
on prioritizing the future needs of Azerbaijan.
DERSE