AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION POLITICIAN TAKES ON ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001266

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM KDEM IR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION POLITICIAN TAKES ON ISSUE
OF ETHNIC AZERIS IN "SOUTH AZERBAIJAN"

REF: A. (A) BAKU 758

B. (B) BAKU 475

Classified By: DCM Jason P. Hyland for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Leader of the opposition Azerbaijan National
Independence Party (ANIP) Etibar Mammadov plans to raise
awareness of the plight of Iran's ethnic Azeri community.
With hopes of raising the issue on both the national and
international levels, Mammadov will hold an international
conference on the topic of "South Azerbaijan" in Baku on
September 12. Mammadov also speculated that the Iranian
Government had orchestrated the May 2006 ethnic Azeri riots
in Iran in order to gauge ethnic Azeri reaction in the event
of a conflict with the West. The question of "South
Azerbaijan" - the term used by Azeri nationalists to describe
the areas of Iran inhabited primarily by ethnic Azeris -
continues to be extremely sensitive for the governments of
both Azerbaijan and Iran. Mammadov could be drawing
attention to this issue to promote his own domestic political
agenda in Azerbaijan. End summary.

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Iranian Discrimination
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2. (C) Mammadov, a former Member of Parliament and history
instructor at Baku State University, outlined what he
characterized as a long history of discrimination against
Iran's Azeri community. To do this, Mammadov cited examples
ranging from the brutal suppression of ethnic Azeris under
Reza Shah Pahlavi to the absence of Azerbaijani-language
education, broadcasting, and cultural programs in today's
Iran. Mammadov also paid special attention to the recent
protests in May (sparked by the publication in Iranian
newspapers of cartoons depicting ethnic Azeris as cockroaches
- see ref a). When asked why he thought the newspapers
published the cartoons, Mammadov felt that it was possible
that it had to do with the Iranian regime's growing concern
over an eventual confrontation with the international
community over its nuclear program. In his view, the regime
may have sparked the protests as a means by which to better
gauge ethnic Azeri discontent in the event of a conflict with
the international community.

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Mammadov's Motivations...
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3. (C) While stating that he was sympathetic to the GOAJ's
difficult position with respect to the ethnic Azeri issue in
Iran, Mammadov nonetheless expressed a strong interest in
bringing the issue to the forefront of his political
activities. Asked to explain the motivation behind his
newfound interest in the plight of Iran's ethnic Azeris,
Mammadov stated that he was driven by profound sympathy for
their situation and a desire to focus on the kind of issues
affecting the day-to-day lives of average Azerbaijanis (note:
it is unclear how this issue affects the daily lives of
average Azerbaijanis). Mammadov also stated that beyond
raising awareness in Azerbaijan, he hoped to draw
international attention to this issue by holding a conference
on "South Azerbaijan" in Baku on 12 September. His selection
of such a politically-charged name for this conference (note
- "South Azerbaijan" is the name commonly used by Azeri
nationalists within both Iran and Azerbaijan to describe the
areas of Iran inhabited primarily by ethnic Azeris) is sure
to attract attention both domestically and internationally.
As the planning for this conference was still ongoing,
Mammadov provided few other insights beyond the fact that he
was inviting a number of figures from Azerbaijan and abroad
to participate.

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Broadcasts into Iran?
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4. (C) Concluding the meeting, Mammadov urged the U.S. to
expand U.S.-sponsored broadcasting into Iran, especially in
the Azerbaijani language. Mammadov believed that the U.S.
was missing an opportunity to communicate directly with the
Iranian people, and indicated that our message would be
eagerly received.

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The Politics of the Azeri Question
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BAKU 00001266 002 OF 002



5. (C) COMMENT: Mammadov was one of the leading figures of
Azerbaijan's national independence movement and has been an
outspoken member of the opposition since Heydar Aliyev's
ascendancy to power. He lost a bid for Parliament in 2005
and, since then, has struggled to retain leadership in his
own party. His push to raise a high-profile, emotional issue
could be an effort to reignite his political career.
However, given the recent political standoff with Iran over
critical remarks made at the Second Congress of World
Azerbaijanis in Baku (ref b),the GOAJ will likely watch
Mammadov's initiative very carefully. Post will also
continue to monitor the issue closely. END COMMENT.
DERSE