AZERBAIJAN SETS MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001019

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN SETS MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 6

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND PER 1.4(B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission
(CEC) has announced that municipal elections will be held on
October 6. Three types of elections will be held: re-run
elections in the municipalities that participated in the 2004
elections in which the results were invalidated (141
municipalities),bi-elections in some municipalities, and new
elections in municipalities that were established after the
elections (23 municipalities). Elections will take place in
more than 80 electoral constituencies, with a total of 942
polling stations. There are more than 1900 vacant seats, and
an anticipated three to four candidates will run for each
seat. CEC expects between 20 and 45 percent voter turn-out of
the 800,000 voters registered in the participating
municipalities, with greater turn-out predicted in small
villages. The opposition Azadliq bloc will boycott the
elections, although one Azadliq bloc member, the Popular
Front Party (PFP),said that it will participate if the
composition of the CEC is changed. After an internal debate,
Musavat also decided to boycott the elections, but granted
its members the right to run as independent candidates.
Several of the small pro-opposition parties will participate
in the elections. END SUMMARY

ELECTIONS LOGISTICS
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2. (C) Azerbaijan's most recent municipal elections were held
on December 17, 2004. The results were invalidated in 420
Precinct Elections Commissions (in a total of 141
municipalities) due to "errors affecting the electoral
results," and 50 elections commissions were dismissed by the
CEC due to "serious law violations." On June 27, the CEC
announced that municipal elections would be held on October

6. Because there is no law requiring new municipal elections
to be announced within a specific amount of time, the GOAJ
until June 27 had not taken action on the canceled 2004
races. Anar Mammadli, the Executive Director of the Election
Monitoring Center, said that the GOAJ finally set the date
for the rerun elections in response to direct pressure from
the Council of Europe.


3. (C) Mammadli explained to Poloff that the fall elections
include three types of elections: repeat elections in the
municipalities that participated in 2004 in which the results
were invalidated (141 municipalities),bi-elections in some
municipalities, and elections in new municipalities that were
established after the 2004 elections (23 municipalities).
Rovzat Gasimov, Head of the CEC's International Relations
Department, briefed Poloff on preparations to-date. According
to Gasimov, there will be 942 polling stations in more than
80 constituencies. There are more than 1900 vacant seats, and
CEC expects three or four candidates to run for each seat. So
far, 78 candidatures have been registered, 968 potential
candidates have received signature sheets, and 110 have
completed the campaign of signature collection and submitted
the sheets.

GASIMOV'S INSIGHT
--------------

4, (C) Gasimov told Poloff that the problem he sees with
Municipal Elections is that there is a mentality among the
population that anyone can run for a seat in the Municipal
Councils. He said that this mentality used to exist for
Presidential and Parliamentary elections, but that now the
public realizes that it takes work to be the President or to
be a Member of Parliament (MP). In fact, Gasimov admitted
that the CEC hates municipal elections. He is optimistic,
however, that more youth will participate, especially in
large cities. He explained that in small villages, the
elderly are more politically active. Gasimov estimates
turn-out will be between 20 and 45 percent of the 800,000
voters that are registered in the participating
municipalities. He predicted that overall turn-out will be
much higher in small villages, where the focus will be on the
municipal elections, and lower in big cities, where the
elections are not expected to garner much attention.

THE OPPOSITION (MOSTLY) BOYCOTTS
--------------


5. (C) Unsurprisingly, the opposition Azadliq bloc announced
that because Azerbaijan failed to fulfill the Council of
Europe's recommendations to improve the elections process,
the bloc will boycott the municipal elections. The Popular
Front Party, part of the Azadliq bloc, announced that it
would participate in the municipal elections only if the
composition of the CEC is changed. (COMMENT: We do no expect
this to happen.) EMC's Anar Mammadli believes the PFP is
posturing, trying to draw attention to itself in preparation

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for the high-profile Presidential elections in 2008. After
weeks of internal wrangling, Musavat also announced its
decision to boycott the elections, but has given party
members the right to run as independent candidates. Musavat
MP Nasib Nassibli admitted to Poloff that there had been an
internal rift in the party - some members wanted to
participate in the municipal elections while others did not.
Several small pro-opposition parties will participate in the
elections, including Civil Solidarity, Whole Azerbaijan
Popular Front, Social Welfare, and Justice.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) The decision of the leading opposition parties not to
participate indicates that the October municipal elections
are likely to attract many independent candidates but little
attention from the general public. Musavat's decision not to
participate comes as a surprise, particularly since all other
recent evidence indicates that Musavat is deeply engaged in
Azerbaijan's political process, including its own serious
party-building efforts. The Embassy will continue to monitor
and support the democratic process here and will work with
other diplomatic missions to develop plans to observe the
October 6 elections.
HYLAND