DAWA HARDLINER INSISTS DEEP-SEATED FEAR OF FORMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000911

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PNAT PINR IZ
SUBJECT: DAWA HARDLINER INSISTS DEEP-SEATED FEAR OF FORMER
REGIME DRIVES SHIA POLITICS

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. In a March 15 meeting with PolOffs, re-
elected Dawa Council of Representative (CoR) member Kamal
Abdullah Khallawi al-Saidi expressed only guarded support
for Prime Minister Jafari to remain as PM, admitting that
Jafari is not the most competent politician. He doubted
anyone else could do better. Al-Saidi suggested the Shia's
deep-seated fear of the Baathists' return to power drives
all Shia political decisions. While he agreed the
continued presence of Coalition Forces is useful now, he
distinguished between Sunni and Shia armed groups that
target only CF and "terror" groups that hit CF and
civilians alike. Al-Saidi claims that USG policy decisions
are fueling that fear and warned that we need to alter our
course. He also asked for USG's support for anti-
corruption efforts. End Summary.

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Jafari: Not the Most Competent, But Who Could Do Better?
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2. (C) Al-Saidi told PolOffs that the opposition to the
nomination of PM Jafari was not due to his personality. He
acknowledged that Jafari is not the most competent and that
there are more competent people in the Shia Coalition.
However, he cautioned that anyone else would face the same
problems because of the complex political and security
problems. He said, if the situation remains the same,
neither Jafari nor anyone else would succeed.

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Fear of Saddamists Return
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3. (C) Al-Saidi said the U.S. media portrays the Shia as
trying to dominate everything in Iraq, but he added that
the Shia know this strategy would sabotage the entire
process. Instead, he insisted that the Shia's deep-seated
fear of the previous regime's return to power drives all
Shia politics. He explained that this fear never
dissipates for anyone who has suffered at the hands of the
Saddamists. The Shia believe that the Saddamists are
hoping to return to power, and if they do, the Shia expect
to suffer even more. He cautioned that when dealing with
the Shia this must be taken into account. He explained
that the political process in Iraq is not about sectarian
divisions but bitter memories and visceral fear. Al-Saidi
himself alluded to the fact they he has an inherent
distrust of Sunni Arabs. Al-Saidi conjectured if the Sunni
Arabs could ever manage to reassure the Shia that they
could control the violence and make sure none of the
Saddamists return, the Shia would even accept a Sunni Prime
Minister. For now, he stated, the average Shia perceives
that all Sunni Arabs are Baathists and terrorists.

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Resistance vs. Terrorism
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4. (C) Al-Saidi told PolOffs that some Sunni Arabs are
trustworthy and have no links with terrorists, but some are
politicians during the day and terrorists at night. He
said the Shia would be able to reach out to, and reach
agreement with, Sunni Arabs not linked to terrorists. Al-
Saidi then differentiated between the resistance and
terrorists by saying that those who attack just Coalition
Forces are resistance (inferring that those who attack
Iraqi Security Forces are terrorists). PolOff impressed
upon al-Saidi that the Ambassador has been crystal clear to
Sunni Arab leaders that they can no longer have one foot in
politics and one foot in the resistance.


5. (C) Al-Saidi said the Shia believe in the political
process and are thankful to the Coalition for liberation.
They want to build the democratic process and the economy.
He stated that when the political process is stabilized,
the Coalition Forces will be asked to leave. He cited the
example of Germany and Japan taking advantage of occupation
to modernize.

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How the U.S. fuels Shia fear
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6. (C) Al-Saidi used the saying "do good and throw in the
sea" as an analogy to describe the current relationship
between the Shia and the U.S. A man saves a drowning

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person (doing his good deed),but then throws him back into
the sea. He said the U.S. liberated the Shia, but now its
losses are becoming unjustified. Al-Saidi commented that
the average Shia no longer understands USG motives in Iraq
for the following reasons and that we must act to decrease
suspicions:

- Following the national elections, the U.S. allegedly
ignored the Shia and only reached out to the Sunnis. He
exclaimed that this only increased the Shia's level of fear
for the return of the Ba'athists.

- The USG controls the Iraqi intelligence services. He
exclaimed that it is a totally non-transparent government
entity that has all the same personnel (former Ba'athists)
who tortured Shia during the Saddam regime.

- "Big" Sunni criminals allegedly remain in sensitive high-
level positions in both the defense and interior
ministries.

- The USG supposedly has worked to circumvent the
constitution to establish a National Security Council with
executive authority. He said there is no objection to a
council with consultative functions, but accountability
will be lost if powers are divided between the Presidency,
Prime Minister, and the CoR Speaker. PolOff countered that
USG policy is to help establish a national unity government
with competent players.

- The Ambassador's recent comments about withdrawing
support if a sectarian government is established, allegedly
signaled to the terrorists to attack the Shia.

- The USG is afraid of some Islamist factions, but does not
understand that Iraqi Islamists do not want Iraqi
government to be a shadow of Iran. Instead, he said, "We
want freedom and democracy."

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Sadrists Point of View
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7. (C) While acknowledging that the Shia have fears about
the Sadrists, Al-Saidi attempted to explain why the
Sadrists do not like the U.S. He believes that the
Sadrists have political, rather than ideological,
differences with the U.S. Sadrists blame the U.S. for the
last three years of Iraqi hardship. As a Shia Coalition
Dawa member, Al-Saidi claimed to remind Sadrists that the
U.S. liberated Iraq, removed Saddam, and provided freedom
for the Iraqis. But Sadrists claim that the ever-dwindling
lack of services, high unemployment, and plundering by
international companies is how the U.S. is destabilizing
Iraq and prolonging the occupation. PolOff reiterated that
the US does not want to stay any longer than they have to.

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Anti-Corruption Efforts Being Hindered
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8. (C) Al-Saidi cited former IIG Minister of Defense Hazim
Sha'alan's treatment as a political refugee in Kurdistan as
an example of the political chaos in Iraq. If these people
can break the laws of government, he asked, how will this
government work, he wondered. He said he would be the
first person to expose corruption in the Jafari government
and claimed that his committee had presented 400 files to
the Commission on Public Integrity and the courts. He
added that in a democracy, there is free press and
institutions that can expose anybody. He then said the
U.S. Embassy can help by not allowing the anti-corruption
process to be disabled or stopped. PolOff responded that
the USG supports anti-corruption efforts, but not for
political ends.

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Reconstruction Gap in the South
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9. (C) Al-Saidi asked why the USG was not developing secure
areas in the south (especially if western areas were
hotbeds). If this happened, he added that Iraqis would
feel like progress was being made. PolOff responded that
the USG had undertaken many reconstruction projects in the
south - citing specifically the Khor al-Zubair electricy
project and the rehabilitation of the Umm Qasr port.
PolOff promised to provide a list of projects in the south,
but emphasized that the U.S. (and other donors) could not

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entirely fund Iraq's infrastructure requirements and that
private investment is necessary to bridge the gap. Al-
Saidi said, if political and security situation stabilized,
then it is necessary to concentrate on the economy, adding
that the U.S. should rebuild just the electricity and oil
infrastructure.

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Danish Cartoons
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10. (C) Regarding the recent Danish publication of cartoons
depicting Mohammed, al-Saidi commented that the Danes are
honest, peaceful and respectful people. Having spent 14
years of his life in Denmark, al-Saidi said he understands
the meaning of freedom of the press - but most Muslims in
the Middle East do not understand that the press in Denmark
is not controlled by the government. He said that the
Muslim community handled this poorly. The violent reaction
delivered the wrong message to the Danish people. Al-Saidi
said the appropriate response would have been for the
Muslim community to accept the Danes' apology and start a
dialogue. Instead, Muslim extremists exploited this
opportunity for political reasons.


11. (C) BIONOTE: Kamal Abdullah Khallawi al-Saidi was born
in Maysan in 1956 (not 1952, as is reported on his official
ID). Al-Saidi attended a technical high school and then
studied Islamic philosophy. In 1979, he joined the Dawa
party, not because of its Islamic roots, but because it was
the the main opposition party fighting against Saddam. Al-
Saidi fled to Denmark in 1989 where he received refugee
status and lived for 14 years before returning to Iraq.
His family remains in Denmark. He was elected to the
Transitional National Assembly (TNA) in January 2005 and
served as the Deputy Chairman of the TNA Integrity
Committee. In the December 2005 elections, he was fourth
on the Shia Coalition's Misan list and won a CoR seat.
SATTERFIELD