GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: KURDS FEAR NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000863

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: KURDS FEAR NO
PROGRESS; SHIA COALITION MEMBERS EXPRESS EAGERNESS TO MOVE
FORWARD; SUNNIS MORE OPTIMISTIC

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford
for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. SUMMARY. While all eyes on March 16 were focused on
the first session of the Council of Representatives
(CoR),several members offered their assessment of the
government formation negotiations. Kurdish Alliance
members were more pessimistic about the progress being
made, while Sunni Arab members were more optimistic
that an agreement can be reached in a few weeks. Shia
Coalition members hope that the deadlock can be broken
soon so that work of the CoR can get started. An
effort by the Kurds, Sunni Arab Tawaffuq Front, the
Allawi group and some of the Shia Coalition to declare
their own large front in order to pressure Prime
Minister Jafari to step appeared to run into last-
minute trouble. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Presidency Council Chief of Staff Kamran
Karadaghi said matter-of-factly to PolOff just after
the first Council of Representatives (COR) on March 16
that no one is in charge of the current government
formation process. While President Talabani remains
personally optimistic that the government will be
formed by the end of March, Karadaghi said that no one
has enough power to push through a resolution. Both
Tehran and Shia radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr are
extremely weak, according to Karadaghi. "The more
Sadr and the Iranians keep pushing for meetings with
Talabani and KDP leader Masud Barzani, the weaker they
look," he said. In addition, by courting Sadr so
openly, the Iranians have angered SCIRI leader Abd al-
Aziz al-Hakim, and alienated one of their longtime
partners in Iraq. Kurdish Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh
Shaways agreed that resolution on the cabinet is far
off, but noted that despite the minor altercations the
first COR session had gone well. Calling from home,
senior Kurdish parliamentarian Mahmud Othman claimed
that heavy traffic had kept him away from the first
session but noted wryly that the Iraqi leaders could
have held this session weeks ago "for all the progress
they made today."


3. (C) KDP member Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told
PolOff March 16 that he thinks that the government
formation negotiations are not progressing fast
enough. When PolOff asked who should push the pace,
he did not have an answer. Foreign Ministry Chief of
Staff and new parliamentarian Fawzi Hariri predicted
privately to PolOff March 16 that forming the cabinet
would take at least another month.

-------------- --------------
SHIA REACTIONS - NOT SURE WHEN IT WILL BE RESOLVED,
BUT EAGER TO GET TO WORK
-------------- --------------


4. (C) In a conversation March 16, SCIRI politburo
member Redha Jawad Taki dismissed the CoR first
session as just a hole to jump through. He said the
hard part is still to come. When PolOff asked how
soon the CoR will convene to vote on new government
positions, he had no ready answer.


5. (C) As a first time CoR member, SCIRI's Dr. Ijra
Faisal Oda expressed her hope to PolOff March 16 that
the CoR would move forward with committee assignments
even though the rest of government was not ready. She
is eager to get to work on programs to help the
people. Shia Coalition Independent Abidah Ahmad
Sakhil al-Ta'i told PolOff March 16 that she is
impatient for the PM nomination to be decided because
others look upon the Independents within the Shia
Coalition as the PM spoilers. She wants to put the PM
nomination behind her so the CoR can focus on
committee work.

--------------
SUNNIS MORE OPTIMISTIC
--------------


6. (C) Sunni Arab Tawaffuq Front official Mahmud
Mashadani said that the Tawaffuq that was pushing for
agreement on the framework for decision making in the
new government, and have proposed several concepts for
procedural arrangements. Another Sunni politician,
media hog Salih Mutlak, said many in the negotiations
are distracted because they are thinking about their
own future jobs. (Comment: Mutlak likely betrayed

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his own motivation. End Comment.) Sunni Arab
parliamentarian Mithal Alusi told Poloff that the
atmosphere among the parties, though still far from
ideal, has gotten better, with the prospect of an
agreement on the makeup of the new government possible
within a few weeks.


7. (C) There had been discussion among the Kurdish
Alliance, the Iraqi Islamic Party, Allawi's National
Accord party and the SCIRI party of announcing on
March 17 a new, national umbrella front as a way of
pressing Ibrahim Jafari to step down from the prime
ministership. As of early March 17, however, we were
hearing from multiple sources that the announcement
would be delayed. It appeared there were some last-
minute coordination problems between the Iraqi Islamic
Party (IIP) and the Tawaffuq Front leadership of which
the IIP is a part.
KHALILZAD