SUNNI AND ALLAWI BLOCS READY FOR MORE GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000813

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2026
TAGS: PGOV PNAT IZ
SUBJECT: SUNNI AND ALLAWI BLOCS READY FOR MORE GOVERNMENT
NEGOTIATIONS - IDEAS BUT NO DEALS

Classified By: POL COUNS Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In advance of the March 14 meeting of the
major political blocs' leaders to work on resolving the
government formation dilemma, Tawafuq official Mahmud al-
Mashadani told us that Sunni Arab and Shia Coalition
negotiators were working toward formation of an Arab
political bloc. However, he added that this was not an
effort to exclude the Kurds, and they would still accept
Jalal Talabani as President. Mashadani said Tawafuq
continues to support Nadim al-Jabiri for the premiership.
Iraqi National List member Wa'el Abd al-Lateef al-Fadhel
told Poloffs March 13 that a preliminary agreement on
government formation could be completed by March 16.
However, he added that alliances in the negotiations are
constantly changing. Iraqi National List member Adnan
Pachachi said that he and some of his allies would present
a plan to stand up a national policy council - an idea we
think the Shia will receive with suspicions. Indeed,
suspicions still mark the sentiments political figures
express about each other. END SUMMARY.

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INDC LEADER: TAWAFUQ SEEKS AGREEMENT WITH UIA, SUPPORTS
FADHILA PM
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2. (C) Sunni Tawafuq negotiators met with Shia Coalition
negotiators to discuss government formation issues on March

3. Sunni INDC leader Mahmud Mashadani told Poloff on March
13 that the goal of the discussions was to solve Sunni-Shia
problems but that no agreements were reached. (Note: He
provided Poloff with some of the Tawafuq proposals
concerning a national security council and a set of
proposed by-laws for the cabinet; we will report these
septel. End note.) While terming the process an effort
to form an Arab political bloc, Mashadani said this was not
as an attempt to exclude the Kurds. He said the Kurds have
an agreement with the Shia and another with Tawafuq, so it
is only natural that Tawafuq seek an agreement with the
Shia. The goal of this political bloc is to maintain the
unity of the Arab part of Iraq and agree to form one Arab
region to complement the Kurd region to the north.


3. (C) Mashadani said Tawafuq continues to support Nadim
al-Jabiri for the PM because they perceive him to be a
nationalist who will foster friendly relations with the US,
Iran and the Arab countries. He will favor a centralized
government with strong regional powers. By contrast,
according to Mashadani, Iran is now promoting Muqtada Sadr
as the wave of the political future. Unlike Hakim, he can
"take on" the Americans


4. (C) Mashadani said Tawafuq expects that Jalal Talabani
will remain President and that IIP Leader Tariq al-Hashimi
or Osama al-Tikriti will head the Council of
Representatives. The Sunnis also want the Foreign Minister
portfolio and Mashadani ticked off a list of possible Sunni
candidates. He said that some of his Sunni Arab colleagues
are asking him to vie for the position of Deputy PM for
Security but he does not want the job. Allawi is an
unacceptable candidate for this position, said Mashadani -
the Sunnis reject him for the assault on Falluja and the
Shia reject him for the assault on Sadr. Mashadani said he
wants to be Minister for Human Rights.

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VIOLENCE STILL PLAGUES STREETS BUT SUNNIS IN NO HURRY FOR
GOVERNMENT FORMATION
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5. (C) Mashadani said that the people are tired of the
violence and want action. He believes that negotiators for
the four political blocs should be sequestered in a safe IZ
location and work non-stop to form a government starting on
March 16, after the Council of Representatives is convened.
Mashadani said the government could be formed in two weeks
if the blocs work around the clock. He rejected the idea
of moving the negotiations to the Kurdish region - arguing
that it should be done in Baghdad.


6. (C) Mashadani said there was no change in violence
against the Sunnis and said the streets are full of
militants and security forces. He said the sectarian
situation is very tense. Mashadani said the killing of a
Shia or Sunni political leader could spark a major increase
in sectarian violence.

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IRAQI NATIONAL LIST MEMBER: GOVERNMENT FORMATION

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NEGOTIATIONS NOW POINTING TOWARD SUNNI ARAB PRESIDENT
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7. (C) Iraqi National List member Wa'el Abd al-Lateef al-
Fadhel told PolOffs March 13 that alliances in the
negotiations are constantly changing. He expressed
support for the idea of a Sunni Arab President because he
believes it will calm the security situation in Iraq since
(a) most countries around Iraq are Sunni Arab and (b) Sunni
Arabs are part of the insurgency and problem in Iraq.
While he said he had discussed the idea of a Sunni Arab
president with Ayad Allawi, who al-Fadhel claimed supported
it, he also noted that the Sunni Arabs have not been
seeking the post.

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NOT AGAINST JAFARI IF CHANGES IN POWER-SHARING AND
DECISION-MAKING
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8. (C) Al-Fadhel told PolOffs that Iraqi National List
policy had changed and that the bloc is no longer against a
person (i.e., Jafari),but is against a Prime Minister's
approach and policy. If PM Jafari changes his style to
power-sharing and inclusive decision-making, then there are
no problems. He cited three conditions for allowing Jafari
to stay as PM: (a) Jafari changing his style; (2) a new
empowered Deputy Prime Minister structure; and (3)
effective, competent Ministers, as opposed to party-aligned
"quota" Ministers.

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PACHACHI ALSO THINKS OF COUNCIL STRUCTURE
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9. (C) National Iraqi List (Iraqiya) representative Adnan
Pachachi told Poloffs that they would be presenting at the
March 14 session a proposal for a State Council (Majlis ad-
Dawla) that would consist of the President, the two Deputy
Presidents, the Prime Minister, the two Deputy Prime
Ministers, the president of the Kurdistan Region, and the
leaders of major parliamentary blocs (i.e., Abd al-Aziz al-
Hakim and Ayad Allawi (if not one of the other positions).
This would produce a State Council of eight to nine people.
The State Council would be given by the Council of
Representatives (CoR) authority to approve the national
budget and to control the armed forces.


10. (C) An inner cabinet of the Prime Minister and the two
Deputies would handle certain decisions, so that decisions
were not taken by the Prime Minister unilaterally -- a
frequent Kurdish criticism of Jafari. "Jafari might stay
if he accepts this," Pachachi said. However, he cautioned,
Iraqiya and the Sunni Arabs are "not ready to agree to
this."


11. (C) Pachachi said that Iraqi will need a law to govern
the conduct of the Council of Ministers, and confirmed that
his list, the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds were working on a
common draft law.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) On the eve of the next round of discussions, it
appears that the discussions will touch on government
structures and program - including a national policy
council or by-laws of the cabinet - as well as the identity
of the prime minister. The council idea is still
controversial among the Shia Coalition. Above all, our
contacts among the backbenchers indicate plenty of
suspicion and little agreement as the next round opens.
KHALILZAD