FADHILA PARTY MEMBER WARNS SHIA ANGER MAY NOT BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000648

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PINS PNAT PTER IZ KISL
SUBJECT: FADHILA PARTY MEMBER WARNS SHIA ANGER MAY NOT BE
CONTAINABLE FOLLOWING ANOTHER SAMARRA-LIKE ATTACK

REF: A. BASRAH 26


B. BASRAH 29

C. BAGHDAD 626

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a February 27 phone conversation with
PolFSN, Fadhila Parliamentarian Mohammed Ismail al-Kusai said
that Ayatollah Mohammed al-Yaqubi thinks Shia anger will be
difficult to contain if another attack of the magnitude of
the Samarra February 22 bombing occurs. Al-Kusai said recent
violence in Basrah (Ref A) shows that Shia emotions are
currently so volatile that not even the provincial government
could prevent such outbreaks. Al-Kusai sought to distance
both his party and Basrah Governor al-Wahili from Muqtada's
February 26 televised statement in Basrah calling for the
withdrawal of Coalition forces (Ref B). As reported Ref C,
Al-Kusai said Fadhila will work to preserve the unity of the
Shia coalition. END SUMMARY

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Shia Anger Ready to Boil Over
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2. (C) In a February 27 phone conversation, Fadhila
Parliamentarian Mohammed Ismail al-Kusai told PolFSN that
Party spiritual leader Ayatollah Mohammed al-Yaqubi had
raised with him the intensity of Shia anger after the
February 22 attack on the Al-Askariyah Shrine in Samarra.
Ayatollah Yaqubi expressed to al-Kusai his concern that, if
another attack against a major Shia target occurs, neither
the Marjaiya nor Iraq's political leaders will be able to
control the Shia street. Ayatollah Yaqubi warned al-Kusai
the response of many Shia to such an attack would be
explosive. This is because such attacks are an affront to
the honor of the Shia, al-Kusai said. Al-Kusai added that
February 22 burning of the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP)
headquarters in Basrah reflected the potency of Shia anger.

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Basrah Governor's Ties to Muqtada al-Sadr
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3. (C) Al-Kusai sought to distance both his party and Basrah
Governor al-Wahili from Muqtada's February 26 televised
statement in Basrah calling for the withdrawal of Coalition
forces (Ref B). He attributed the Governor's on camera
presence during Muqtada's statement to the latter's
importance as a national figure and the close relationship
between the two men's families. Al-Kusai said that when
Muqtada al-Sadr's father, Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, was killed
by Saddam Hussein in 1999, Governor al-Wahili's brother
helped members of the al-Sadr family escape Iraq into Iran.

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Comment
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4. (C) Ayatollah Yaqubi's reported views echo what have heard
from other contacts: the Shia street could become
uncontrollable in the event of another Samarra-like
catastrophic attack.
KHALILZAD