PM SENIOR ADVISOR PREDICTS GOVERNMENT FORMATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000508

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDED CAPTION)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2026
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PM SENIOR ADVISOR PREDICTS GOVERNMENT FORMATION
WILL TAKE TWO MONTHS


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) Summary. In a February 15 meeting, Jafari senior
advisor Hassan Hamid Hassan Al-Seneid told PolOffs that the
Shia Coalition has placed conditions on Jafari assuming the
premiership, as well as on any other Shia Coalition holder of
positions in the new government. He estimated that
government formation will take at least two months. He
argued that the creation of the proposed National Security
Council, even as an advisory body, would erode democratic
progress and the authority of the Council of Representatives.
Seneid considered Nadim al-Jabiri's threat to leave the
Coalition as a negotiating tool to ensure a high-level
government post. He also characterized the Sadrist
opposition to Ayad Allawi in government as unsophisticated
and undemocratic and gave assurances that the Shia Coalition
will easily resolve this issue. End Summary.

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Shia Coalition Oversight
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2. (C) Seneid readily admitted that the Jafari Government has
been a failure on many counts, particularly with respect to
the PM's advisors. As a new PM Senior Advisor, Seneid
insisted that the mistakes of the past administration would
not be repeated. Seneid said he advised Jafari to build a
staff that reflects society and not just party membership.
Seneid mentioned that not all of Jafari's advisors will be
returning, including Adnan Ali al-Khadimy. (COMMENT: While
it is clear Jafari is shaking up his staff, we hear
conflicting reports as to how he plans to do so. Council of
Ministers Secretary-General Dhia told poloffs February 14
that al-Khadimy will remain in a senior position on the PM's
staff. Separately, Umma Party member (Shia progressive)
Belsam al-Hilli told PolOff February 15 that she had been
asked to become PM Jafari's Chief of Protocol. She has yet
to make up her mind. )


3. (C) Seneid confirmed rumors that the Shia Coalition laid
out the following set of conditions for assuming the
premiership:

- PM must sign a letter of resignation dated one year from
taking office that will be acted upon if the Shia Coalition
reviews the PM's performance and finds it unsatisfactory.
- PM must accept plans and policies put forward by the
seven-member Shia Coalition leadership committee.
- Each Shia Coalition cabinet minister (or deputy president)
must sign a letter of resignation.
- Regarding cabinet minister selection of Shia Coalition
ministries, the designated Shia Coalition party must submit
three candidates from which PM Jafari could choose. Jafari
has the right to veto all three candidates. The party then
has the opportunity to submit three more names. The PM must
select from this group. If a party cannot provide three
candidate names, the Shia Coalition would choose a competent
candidate regardless of party.

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Shia Coalition Rejects Proposed Council
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4. (C) Seneid said he had advised PM Jafari to reject the
proposal for a National Security Council. Seneid said that
any kind of advisory body deciding the strategic vision or
important issues of the country would undermine the power of
the Council of Representatives. He equated the idea with
going backwards in democratic time and explained that each
change in government (CPA, IGC, IIG, ITG, Council of
Representatives) has brought Iraq more democracy. Seneid
charged that having a National Security Council would be like
going back to the Iraqi Governing Council when an "elite
committee" got to rule Iraq.

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Forming a Unity Government
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5. (C) Seneid dismissed the Sadrists' rhetoric against Ayad
Allawi's participation in a unity government. He added that
the Sadrists are young and inexperienced and easily handled
by the Shia Coalition. He added that since Allawi won 25
Council of Representatives seats, he deserves a place in the
new government of national unity.


6. (C) Seneid dismissed Nadim al-Jabiri's bid to leave the
Shia Coalition and vote against Jafari's candidacy as just a
ploy to secure the highest-level government position
possible. Seneid downplayed the possibility that the Fadhila
party would leave the Coalition to join with the Kurds,

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Sunnis and secularists because several Fadhila members do not
agree with this tactic. He reasoned that it is too early for
Jabiri to try and topple Jafari when the new government has
no track record. "In a year, with poor performance, it could
be easy for Nadim to attempt this move," said Seneid.

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Security is Top Priority
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7. (C) Seneid said that the new Jafari Government's first
order of business would be securing Iraq's borders with its
neighboring countries. Seneid cited the following points as
requiring action:

- 1979 treaty with Iran does not specify border
regulation.
- 1964 treaty with Syria does not specify border
regulation.
- The borders between Iraq and the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait are regulated by the Arab League.
- The Kurds have an agreement with Turkey but not Iraq.
- Jordan has no international treaty with Iraq regulating
and protecting its borders.

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Truth and Reconciliation
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8 (C) With the prospect that the trials against Saddam may
last five years, Seneid said that he saw nothing wrong with
keeping Saddam on television for five years so the Iraqi
people would have the opportunity to hear the details of all
the crimes against humanity the former dictator committed.
Taking a dinner knife from the restaurant table and slicing
the air while he spoke, Seneid said the only weapon of mass
destruction in Iraq is Saddam. Seneid doubted that Saddam
would receive the death sentence from the Dujail trial. He
said the IHT made a mistake by starting with a trial that
only concerned the Shia and not one that could have united
all the Iraqi people.


9. (C) BIONOTE: Hasan Hamid Hassan Seneid was born in
Nasariya, earned a Masters degree in Civil Engineering and a
PhD in Islamic History. In 1971, Seneid joined the Dawa
Party. In 1975, 1977, and 1979, he was arrested and released.
In 1980, he was arrested again, tried by the Revolution
Court and sentenced to life in prison. Six months later
Seneid tried to escape from prison, was re-captured and
sentenced to death. One month later on National Day, his
sentence was commuted to life imprisonment. Seneid said he
was severely tortured in prison where he suffered many broken
bones, resulting in his permanent limp. Following his
release from prison in 1983, he said that Dawa (with help
from the KDP) smuggled him into Turkey, then Iran. He then
spent time in the United Arab Emirates, Algieria, London,
Syria, Lebanon, and Kuwait. His wife and son were also
imprisoned. His wife died before the liberation of Iraq. In
1990, Seneid was elected to Dawa's Political Bureau, and is
now a member of its leadership committee. After the
liberation, he was first an advisor to the Ministry of Awqaf
and then was elected to the Transitional National Assembly.
He is a newly elected member of the Council of
Representatives. Seneid has written eight collections of
poetry. He is also the author of five books and is currently
writing a book on torture methods used during the Saddam
Regime.
KHALILZAD