Media Reaction: Barzani Says Americans Will Not Stay

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SUBJECT: Media Reaction: Barzani Says Americans Will Not Stay
Forever in Iraq


This is an Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT)
cable.


1. (U) SUMMARY: Speaking in everyday language directly to the
Kurdish people, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President
Massoud Barzani made a statement to a special session of the
Kurdistan National Assembly (KNA) on December 26 in which he
downplayed the significance of the Iraq Study Group report, but said
that Americans "will not stay forever" in Iraq. Without the U. S.
acting as an intermediary, Barzani warned, there could be attempts
to delay or sideline the Constitutional referendum on Kirkuk. Any
such move would lead to "a disaster," and he intimated the Kurds
might be required to take up arms to defend Kirkuk. He said that in
his recent trip to Baghdad he had reached an agreement with the
Iraqi central government on budget and oil revenue sharing. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) KDP and PUK media outlets covered the statement of KRG
President Massoud Barzani to a special session of the Kurdistan
National Assembly on December 26. In his statement Barzani
downplayed the importance of the Iraq Study Group report citing a
phone call with President Bush and a meeting with Senators Joseph
Lieberman and John McCain during his recent trip to Baghdad.
However, he also foreshadowed the eventual withdrawal of U. S.
troops from Iraq. He said:

-- "I spoke with President Bush by telephone and he understands the
sadness of the Kurdish people at this report. He told me this
report is just like any other report and the final decision is up to
him alone. President Bush also rejects any steps outside the Iraqi
Constitution."

-- "I met members of the U. S. Congress from both the Democratic
and Republican sides. They told me that neither the Congress nor
the U. S. government is committed to the report. They said they
appreciate what the Kurdish people have achieved in recent years and
feel an ethical commitment to the Kurds."

-- "But how long will the Americans stay? They will not stay here
forever. If they feel there is no solution (to the ethnic violence
in the south) they will pull out and we will be alone."


3. (U) Without the U. S. acting as an intermediary, Barzani warned
there could be attempts to delay or sideline the Constitutional
referendum on Kirkuk. He called on neighboring countries to stop
political interference that is destabilizing the situation in Kirkuk
and Mosul and suggested Kurds might be called upon to take up arms
in defense of Kirkuk. He said:

-- "The Kurdish people have sacrificed a lot to secure a better
future and achieve the rights that are guaranteed in the Iraqi
Constitution. We do not accept any move to circumvent the
Constitutional process."

-- "Neighboring countries are interfering in Iraqi sovereignty by
smuggling groups of mercenaries, terrorists, and former Baathists,
with the goal of drawing the Kurds into a national civil war.
Already more than 2000 Kurds have been killed in Kirkuk, Mosul, and
Diyala, and more than 3000 Kurdish families have been forced out of
Mosul because of this war."

-- "Any postponement or modification to the implementation of
Article 140 of the Constitution will lead to a disaster."

-- "We will struggle against any tribe that interferes with the
Constitution, and the victory will be for us."


4. (U) Barzani said he supports the movement to form a new
coalition to marginalize militia leaders in Baghdad, but warned
against factions in the government who are not committed to national
reconciliation. He promised that Peshmerga forces would not be sent
to protect Baghdad in the context of sectarian violence. He said:


-- "We (the Kurds) live inside the framework of Iraq and are part of
this state. Any deterioration in the situation in the rest of Iraq
will have a negative impact on the situation here."

-- "There are people who support the government, the parliament and
the political process on the surface. However, in practice, they
side with the terrorists and militias which carry out killings every
day."

-- "We agreed (Kurdish and Iraqi officials) in Baghdad that we need
a national coalition to handle the security situation in Iraq."

-- "We will form coalitions with any group that believes in the
Constitution, democracy, federalism, coexistence and mutual
participation. And we will never be allies with sides that oppose

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these principles, whether they are Shia or Sunni."

-- "The Peshmerga's duty is to protect the democratic regime.
However, if they want the Peshmerga to go to Baghdad and become part
of the Shia-Sunni conflict, then we would not do that. If the aim
is that the Peshmerga is stationed on the streets of Baghdad to
become a target for snipers and booby-trapped vehicles, we will not
tolerate that."


5. Barzani also commented on the success of his visit in reaching
accommodation on economic issues:

-- "We have reached an agreement on the budget where 17 per cent of
the national budget will be shared with us."

-- "We are close to announcing an agreement for sharing oil revenues
in which all parties will get an equal share."


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Barzani used his statement to downplay the
significance of the Iraq Study Group report, a departure from his
staunchly negative rhetoric and that of other KRG officials in
recent weeks. This suggests that he realizes the government has
overplayed its opposition to the report with protests and petition
campaigns among students and civil society organizations that have
been orchestrated by party officials behind the scenes for
international media consumption. He also intimates that the
prospect of an eventual withdrawal of U. S. troops from Iraq could
bring attempts to delay or sideline the Constitutional referendum on
Kirkuk. In this situation, he intimates, the Kurds might be
required to take up arms to defend Kirkuk. END COMMENT.