PM STANISHEV SAYS BULGARIA TO CONSIDER EXTENDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004554

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS BU IZ
SUBJECT: PM STANISHEV SAYS BULGARIA TO CONSIDER EXTENDING
TROOP PRESENCE, WATCHING CLOSELY U.S. POLICY REVIEW

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay KHalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev
told the Ambassador December 12 that Bulgaria will decide in
March whether to extend its troop contribution to MNF-I,
following the ongoing U.S. policy review on Iraq. Stanishev
sought the Ambassador's views on prospects for reducing
sectarian violence, the stability of the ruling coalition,
and the capacity of Iraqi security forces. The Ambassador
reiterated that the U.S. Administration is carrying out a
review of its Iraq policy, taking into consideration the
report from the Iraq Study Group. He described the violence
perpetrated by Al Qaeda- Iraq, the insurgents, and militias,
which receive support from Syria and Iran. He asked PM
Stanishev to encourage PM Maliki and other Iraqi leaders to
make the difficult decisions needed for Iraq's success; and
to focus efforts behind national reconciliation. End Summary.


2. (C) Accompanying PM Stanishev in his December 12 meeting
with the Ambassador were Deputy PM and FM Ivajlo Kalfin, NSA
Petko Sertov, MFA Chief of Cabinet Rayko Raychev, MFA Middle
East Director Petko Doykov, and Ambassador to Iraq Valeri
Ratchev.

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Stanishev: Important to Hear U.S. Perspective
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3. (C) PM Stanishev initiated the meeting by stating that he
viewed his visit to Iraq as important for Bulgaria and for
himself. His team had been following developments in Iraq
closely, as well as the international debate -- particularly
in the US -- on how to proceed. He noted successes in Iraq
over the past three years, including the drafting and popular
approval of a new constitution, free and fair elections, and
the organization of a new government. At the same time,
however, there remained many problems, particularly the
marked increase in sectarian violence and Iraq's complex
relationship with its neighbors. He wondered if the country
was headed towards fragmentation. He stated that Bulgaria
would be deciding in January about the continued status of
150 Bulgarian troops guarding the MeK at Camp Ashraf. The
current mandate for this contribution ends March 31. As a
coalition partner in Iraq, he stated, it was important to
hear the U.S. perspective on the situation in Iraq. He also
asked the Ambassad
or's view of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) report and the degree
to which it would impact U.S. policy.

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Ambassador: We Hope Bulgarian Troops will Stay
-------------- -


4. (C) The Ambassador expressed strong appreciation for
Bulgaria's contribution at Camp Ashraf and for the bravery of
Bulgarian troops who had served in Iraq. He expressed strong
hope that Bulgaria would extend their mandate, as the Iraqis
continue to need help. Deputy PM Kalfin relayed that
Bulgaria had participated in the coalition from the
beginning. Turning to other issues, the Ambassador stated
that President Bush is currently conducting a review of U.S.
policy and would take the ISG report into consideration.
However, the President is also seeking input from a wide
range of other sources, including the UK and the Iraqis
themselves. The Ambassador agreed with the PM about the
multiple challenges in Iraq. We were having to build
institutions, and more fundamentally a nation, in a difficult
region in which some countries do not want Iraqi democracy to
succeed. Iran and Syria were using sectarian violence to try
to undermine coalition efforts in Iraq, through Iranian
support for militias and Syrian willingness to allow
terrorists to cross its border into Iraq. The Ambassador
related that we are working to bring moderate political
groups together to try to reach a constructive understanding
of the future of Iraq. He also noted the importance of
reconciliation, including through the planned passage of new
legislation on de-Baathification and Hydrocarbons.


5. (C) The PM asked what the Iraqi view was towards
international pressure. The Ambassador relayed that Iraqi
public opinion had turned more negative the longer coalition
troops had remained on the ground, but the government
understands the security situation would be much worse if
coalition forces were to leave too soon. That is why Iraq
agreed to a rollover of the UNSC resolution on the MNF-I
presence with a mandate until the end of 2007. He could not
speculate as to whether there would be another rollover next
year, noting that it would depend on the security situation.
We were making progress in building up the Iraqi Army, with

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the goal of letting them take the lead with coalition forces
in a support position. PM Maliki is urging that the process
be speeded up. By the end of summer 2007, Iraq is scheduled
to have control over its military forces in all the
provinces. PM Stanishev asked the Ambassador if the Iraqi
Army and Police were up to the job. The Ambassador replied
that the IA is in better s
hape than the police, which in some places has been
infiltrated by militia.

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Militias, MEK, and Reconciliation
--------------


6. (C) The PM inquired which militia groups were of greatest
concern to the U.S. The Ambassador stated the Jash al Mahdi
(JAM) and rogue JAM elements that are not entirely under the
control of Moqtada al-Sadr. The Ambassador added that we are
pressing PM Maliki to deal with the militias, or the problem
will become worse. PM Stanishev spoke of the importance of
economic opportunities and jobs to make it more difficult for
the militias to recruit young men. The Ambassador agreed,
noting the important link between employment and security.
PM Stanishev asked Iraq's perspective on the MEK. The
Ambassador noted difficulty for the GOI as it cannot simply
hand them over to Iran. The Iraqis are anxious for the MEK
to leave Iraq as soon as possible.


7. (C) Stating that he would be seeing PM Maliki shortly, PM
Stanishev asked the Ambassador what messages he should raise.
The Ambassador urged PM Stanishev to emphasize that it is
important for Iraqi leaders to move forward in an active
manner towards solving Iraq's problems, including dealing
with militias and insurgents. He should also encourage
Maliki to reach out to moderate countries in the region for
support in Iraq and to move forward on national
reconciliation, including on elements in the International
Compact on Iraq.
KHALILZAD