GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: KURDISH MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000444

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2026
TAGS: PGOV PNAT IZ
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: KURDISH MINISTER
SAYS DON'T ASSUME PM FIGHT IS OVER

Classified By: Pol Couns Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY On February 13, the day after the Shia
Islamist Coalition (List 555) decision on PM nomination,
Minister of Planning and Development Cooperation Barham
Salih cautioned poloffs against assuming that Jafari now
has a lock on the premiership. Salih said he would push
for Thamir Ghadban to be returned to his former position as
Minister of Oil. SCIRI representatives described to us the
point system for government seat allocations, claiming that
Fadhila leader al-Jabiri is fighting with members of his
own party over how whether to use Fadhila "points" for
three ministries or a single, high-level position within
the government for himself. Council of Ministers SYG Emad
Dhia told poloffs that Jafari has started reorganizing his
immediate staff at the prime ministry. Jafari had made no
specific promises to other Shia Coalition members to beat
rival Abd al-Mahdi. Dhia said the Sadrists mainly want
money as they ponder ministerial slots. National Iraqi
List member Husayn al-Sha'lan and Shia Coalition
Independent Sami al-Askari told poloffs that
action to establish a southern region should be deferred.
END SUMMARY.

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BARHAM: DON'T ASSUME ITS JAFARI
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2. (C) Minister of Planning and Development Cooperation
Barham Salih told Poloffs February 13 that Jafari was not a
shoe-in for PM. Salih predicted that PM Jafari would be
presented by the Kurds and others (presumably the Sunni
Arabs and Allawi) with a three-part package of a government
program, a set of ground-rules for governmental mechanics,
and a list of specific positions sought. He thought that
Jafari would be forced to take this back to Muqtada al-
Sadr, and that, after a couple of weeks, if Jafari
accepted, the result would be promising; if Jafari refused,
he would not be able to form a government. (Salih showed
no regret about the latter prospect.) He was extremely
concerned about Iraq's financial situation, and blamed DPM
Ahmad Chalabi for failing to improve Iraq's oil production.
He said he was contemplating asking at the Council of
Ministers meeting on February 14 for PM Jafari immediately
to re-appoint former Minister of Oil Thamir Ghadban.
Salih, who was once supposed to be Jalal Talabani's nominee
for Minister of Oil, said he was not interested in the job
now, and that Ghadban was the man Iraq needed in this
important, sensitive job. (Comment: Chalabi in our view
has proven decisive at critical moments on infrastructure
security issues. Bureaucratic follow-up inside the Iraqi
government has been mediocre. End Comment.)

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Jabiri vs. Fadhila Members on Government Positions?
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3. (C) In a separate February 13 meeting, SCIRI Chief of
Staff Haitham al-Husseini and party member Jawad Taki al-
Ismail described to poloffs the anticipated point system
for distributing government positions. Reportedly, the
premiership will be valued at 15 points (with points
reflecting seats held by each party). While Husseini and
Taki did not provide points for lesser positions, they
indicated they would be ranked in the following descending
order: deputy prime ministers, deputy presidents, sovereign
ministers (e.g., finance, oil, interior, defense, and
foreign affairs),and ordinary ministers.


4. (C) The SCIRI representatives said that the Fadhila
membership wants the party to get three ministries in the
new government, and would likely have enough for one
sovereign and two other ministries. Taki said that there
is a brewing conflict within the Fadhila party because
Nadim al-Jabiri wants to use the points to attain the
highest position for himself as opposed to three ministries
for his party.


5. (C) Taki told PolOffs that SCIRI leader Abdul Aziz al-
Hakim is in favor of a unity government but advised that
Ayad Allawi needs to reach out to the Sadrists to help with
this process. When asked if SCIRI was helping to
facilitate meetings between Allawi and the Sadrists, al-
Husseini snickered and said that Allawi has left this task
to Talabani.

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JAFARI AIDE CLAIMS PM MADE NO SPECIFIC PROMISES
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BAGHDAD 00000444 002 OF 002



6. (C) Council of Ministers Secretary-General Emad Dhia
al-Khirsan (formerly head of the CPA Iraqi Reconstruction
and Development Council) told Poloffs that PM Jafari had
made "no specific promises" to get votes to win the Shia
nomination for PM, but he had made a number of general
commitments. Indirectly referring to the Sadrists, he
said, "They want to make money." Dhia said he had asked,
and had received, PM Jafari's blessing to sit on DPM Ahmad
Chalabi's contracts committee. He said that PM Jafari was
reorganizing his office to give more authority to
technocrats. Dhia said Adnan Ali al-Kadhimy was coming
back to be PM Jafari's Chief of Staff. Dhia hoped that
former political allies like 'Abd al-'Aziz al-Tamimi would
be moved out of powerful roles. He asked for specific help
in bringing Iraqi-American technocrats into the Council of
Ministries secretariat (septel).


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Sha'lan and Askari Agree on Southern Region
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7. (C) Shaykh Husayn 'Ali al-Sha'lan, National Iraqi
List's only Council of Representatives member from
Qadisiyah (Diwaniyah) ran into Sami al-Askari, Shia
Islamist Coalition independent and one of the bridges
between Sadr and Da'wa, in the Convention Center in the
presence of Poloffs. Sha'lan and Askari talked about their
shared interest in preventing any action towards a Shia
federal region for at least the next 2-4 years. Sha'lan
told Poloffs afterwards he believes in federalism, but
thinks any southern region should be deferred 2-4 years
because such a region would need people who are efficient
and more capable than many of the people running the
provincial governments. He said Askari is strongly opposed
to federalism of any kind.

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Shabak on Jafari
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8. (C) Shia Alliance Independent and leading Shabak
representative Dr. Hunain al-Qaddo (The number 2 on the
List 555 Ninewa List) told PolOffs February 13 that both
Abd al-Mehdi and Jafari each signed letters before the
February 12 PM vote indicating a readiness to resign as PM
after one year if his job performance was deemed lacking.
Without actually saying who he voted for, al-Qaddo said he
was suspicious of Abd al-Mehdi, who would be inclined to be
easy on the Kurds with regard to Mosul and Kirkuk. He
described PM Jafari as "honest and clean," but his advisors
as "not so good" and possibly corrupt. He characterized
the independent bloc within the Shia Coalition as fragile
and divided, adding that Hussein al-Shahristani does not
have the leadership qualities to lead them (in order for
the bloc to be more forceful and demanding).


9. (C) He suspected that government formation negotiations
would take at least two months. He said that most Shia
reject Ayad Allawi's participation in the government
because he does not represent any community in Iraq besides
the Ba'athists. He stated that Shia blame Allawi for the
security failures and that Ba'athists should be brought
into the political process slowly. He said federalism
should be applied fairly - to all Iraqis and not just a
privilege for one part of Iraq (i.e., Kurdistan).
KHALILZAD