Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAGHDAD420
2006-02-11 13:31:00
SECRET
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:
GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: MODERATE SHIA
how-toVZCZCXRO3644 PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS DE RUEHGB #0420/01 0421331 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 111331Z FEB 06 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2637 INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000420
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2036
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM ECON IZ
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: MODERATE SHIA
ISLAMIST SAYS PM RACE IS DEAD HEAT.
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000420
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2036
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM ECON IZ
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: MODERATE SHIA
ISLAMIST SAYS PM RACE IS DEAD HEAT.
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).
1. (S/REL UK) Summary. In a February 10 meeting, independent
moderate Shi'a Islamist Ali al-Dabbagh told Poloffs that the
two leading United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) candidates for Prime
Minister, Ibrahim Jafari and 'Adil 'Abd al-Madhi, are in a
dead heat, with eight or more Alliance members still
undecided. Based on this, Fadhila Party Nadim al-Jabiri is
negotiating for the best package, indicating that his 15
votes could determine the next PM. Dabbagh said the Sadrists
plan to vote February 11 in a way likely to ensure that all
their votes go to Jafari. Al-Dabbagh hinted that both Jafari
and 'Abd al-Madhi have asked him to be spokesperson.
Al-Dabbagh confirmed that the formula for choosing cabinet
ministers will be the same as last time, in which the party
that gets the prime ministership is not likely to get any
major ministries. He also recommended that the USG and GOI
"recognize" Moqtada al-Sadr in an effort to keep him calm and
controllable. End Summary.
--------------
Shia Independents Weigh In
--------------
2. (C/REL UK) Independent moderate Shi'a Islamist Ali
al-Dabbagh, a member of the Transitional National Assembly,
formerly a spokesman for the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA),and
disappointed candidate for the Council of Representatives
(CoR),told Poloffs February 10 that the UIA independents
were likely to divide their votes: 15 votes for Deputy
President 'Adil 'Abd al-Madhi and 5 votes for Prime Minister
Ibrahim Jafari. According to al-Dabbagh, the Sadrists plan
to have their members turn in their votes separately, so that
all 30 or so members will, in the name of party unity, have
their votes cast for Jafari.
--------------
Determining the Breakdown
--------------
3. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh stressed that efforts were underway
on Friday to reach consensus without a vote. If there is a
vote, Al-Dabbagh saw the race as a near dead heat, with the
remaining 8-10 votes unknown.
60 For Jafari:
25 Da'wa Party and Da'wa Tanzim al-Iraq
30 Sadrists
5 Independents
45 For 'Abd al-Mahdi:
30 SCIRI and Badr Organization
15 Independents
15 swing votes:
15 Fadhila Party
--------------
Fadhila Still Vying
--------------
4. (C/REL UK) Community leader Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who hosted
the meeting with al-Dabbagh, told Poloffs that Fadhila Party
leader Nadim al-Jabiri knows his 15 votes can make or break
either PM candidate, so he is using this to negotiate the
best package out of both of them. According to al-Dabbagh,
al-Jabiri said if he does not get what he wants from either
'Abd al-Madhi or Jafari, he would leave the Alliance.
However, al-Dabbagh reported that Fadhila spiritual leader
Shaykh al-Yacubi in Najaf told him that he wanted Fadhila to
stay in the Alliance.
--------------
Jafari vs. 'Abd al-Madhi
--------------
5. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh had a realistic appraisal of both
Jafari and 'Abd al-Mahdi. He said that there is no guarantee
of success with Jafari as PM. "He will only last two years
in the job because Jafari does not have the ability to listen
and learn from others. Besides, his relationship with the
Kurds will do him in," commented al-Dabbagh. Al-Dabbagh said
he believed that Jafari, in his heart, wants to do the right
thing. Al-Kadhimi added that Jafari rid himself of most of
his first-term advisors, leaving only Falah Fayadh. (Note:
Former Jafari spokesman Laith Kubba recently praised Fayadh
to Emboff as one of Jafari's most capable advisers. End
note.) Al-Kadhimi said Jafari went as far as to request a
meeting with secular Allawi supporter Rend Rahim to get her
BAGHDAD 00000420 002 OF 003
perspective on how to organize his office. Al-Dabbagh
claimed Jafari is serious about reforming his inner circle,
but he will also continue to listen to several of his
old-line Da'wa supporters.
6. (C/REL UK) In comparison, al-Dabbagh said that 'Abd
al-Mahdi had surrounded himself with solid advisors (Farid
Yassen, Zuhair Hamudi, Mohammad al-Hakim, Thamir Ghadban and
others). Al-Dabbagh hinted that both Jafari and 'Abd
al-Madhi had approached him about accepting the position of
spokesperson.
--------------
Iranian Influence
--------------
7. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh was concerned about the extent of
Iranian influence over the next government, whoever led it.
Neither Jafari nor 'Abd al-Mahdi would sacrifice relations
with Iran, he said. He reasoned that Jafari is willing to
make a deal with anyone to become a success, making him much
more susceptible to Iranian offers. Al-Dabbagh admitted that
'Abd al-Madhi will have difficulty going against SCIRI/Badr.
"'Adil can refuse some requests from (Hadi) al-Ameri and
Badr," al-Dabbagh said, using the argument that anything Badr
gets, Sadr will want, too. However, 'Abd al-Madhi aspires to
eventually strengthen himself away from SCIRI, but relies
entirely on Hakim as his power base.
8. (S/REL UK) Outside the capital, however, al-Dabbagh
acknowledged that Iranian influence is increasing.
Al-Dabbagh said that Iranian intelligence (he used the
Persian word Etellat, but did not specify whether he had in
mind the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force or the
Ministry of Intelligence and Security) was now more powerful
than ever, and was having an influence over the security arm
of Badr. "Badr said it was a humanitarian organization" a
year ago, al-Dabbagh said. "Now Badr says it will protect
rallies -- how can it do that if it is a humanitarian
organization?" Badr is forming new organizations: "Friends
of Badr" and "Friends of SCIRI," with vague and potentially
menacing mandates. "People like me are facing people who
have money and (their own) security," he said. "This is
misused by the Iranians." In Karbala, he said, "when you
start talking against Badr, you are killed." Badr,
al-Dabbagh said, was "behaving like the Sadrists."
--------------
Cabinet Formation
--------------
9. (C/REL UK) "The formula for choosing cabinet ministers
will be the same as last time," said al-Dabbagh, with the
party that gets the Prime Ministership not getting any of the
other major ministries. He added that the Sadrists will not
give up any of their ministries. Al-Dabbagh predicted that
Fadhila will offer the Oil Ministry to South Oil Company head
Jabar Ali al-Luhaybi, and Hoshyar Zebari will remain as
Foreign Minister. Al-Dabbagh thought Tawfiq al-Yasiri would
make a good Minister of Defense and Barham Saleh could resume
the job of Deputy Prime Minister. Al-Dabbagh considered
Qassim Daoud an excellent choice for Minister of Interior
except for his poor health. (Note: Daoud had heart surgery
in late 2005 with a follow-up procedure in early 2006. End
note.)
10. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh has been a public advocate for the
proposed National Security Council. Al-Dabbagh said the
Council should not have executive authority. He envisioned a
Council that would decide strategies for the country, i.e.
negotiate with the insurgency, decide Iraq's relations with
neighboring countries, promote national reconciliation, and
outline constitutional review issues. The Council should
have ten members, one of whom, al-Dabbagh said, should be
former PM Ayad Allawi.
11. (C/REL UK) SCIRI head 'Abd al-'Aziz al-Hakim has no
objection to Allawi, al-Dabbagh said; the problem is Muqtada
al-Sadr. Al-Dabbagh said he had talked recently to Allawi,
Hakim and Sadr supporters about Allawi's participation in the
government. Sadr's top aides may be softening, al-Dabbagh
said -- they are saying now that "they can't say yes yet,"
because Sadr himself is in Syria. Al-Dabbagh said he
believed that relations between Allawi and Sadr could be
worked out, but that Allawi should take some symbolic step to
show respect to Muqtada; he need not offer him anything
substantive. A visit by Allawi to Muqtada would be useful,
al-Dabbagh said, but Allawi had indicated such a visit was
unlikely.
BAGHDAD 00000420 003 OF 003
--------------
Muqtada Wants Respect
--------------
12. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh warned that the rivalry between
Hakim/Badr and Muqtada Sadr could become more and more
violent. Al-Dabbagh suggested the USG open a channel to
Sadr, who has 28-30 seats, as a legitimate player on the
political scene. "Recognition and legitimacy will keep
Muqtada more calm and predictable," commented al-Dabbagh. "He
wants to be assured people are listening to him." In
response to Poloffs' question, Dabbagh said Muqtada listens
to Mustafa al-Yaqubi, Riyadh al-Nuri, and Jafar Muhammad
Hamid Bakr al-Sadr.
--------------
Reforming the Economy Is Key
--------------
13. (C/REL UK) Reforming the economy is the key to Iraqi
political recovery, al-Dabbagh (a businessman) said. Asked
what his advice would be to an incoming Prime Minister of
Iraq, he said, "Give the private sector in Iraq a chance."
Al-Dabbagh advocated getting the banking system up and
running -- which he indicated would take one to two years.
The construction industry could lead the economic recovery.
The Basra port needed to be improved and Sadrist corruption
in the port needed to be stopped. Insurance needed to become
more available, and the Iraqi government-run insurance
company needed seed capital of several million dollars to get
going quickly. Agriculture required help, too, and old
industries should be privatized with help given to 800,000
industrial workers likely to be made redundant to find new
jobs.
14. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh said the Iraqi budget was
sufficient for this year, but needs substantial new funds for
2007, when donor funds dry up. There should be considerable
new investment in the Iraqi oil and gas industry now in order
to create revenues for 2007.
--------------
Role of the Marja'iyya
--------------
15. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh, who thought he was close to Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani until Sistani's all-but-open
December endorsement of the UIA doomed al-Dabbagh's
independent candidacy, said that Sistani was being drawn too
far into politics in recent months. Dabbagh said that
Ayatollah Sistani's son, Sayyid Muhammad Ridha al-Sistani,
was getting too involved in the details of government, at the
behest of Hakim and Husayn Shahristani. "People in Baghdad"
(referring to Hakim and Husayn Shahristani) "were pulling
Muhammad Ridha down and using him in the details."
Al-Dabbagh said he hoped to go see his close friend Jawad
Shahristani, Ayatollah Sistani's son-in-law in Qum, Iran, to
urge the marja'iyya to stay above the political fray lest
their reputations be diminished by involvement in day-to-day
politics.
16. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh assured Poloffs that Sayyid
Muhammad Ridha respects the United States for what it has
done in Iraq. He said that Muhammad Ridha was concerned,
however, about reports of recent contacts between U.S.
officials and insurgents. He reportedly fears this is the
first step towards the return of Ba'thists to political life
and then to power. Al-Dabbagh said that Muhammad Ridha also
believes that Allawi has surrounded himself with the worst of
the former Ba'thists, instead of others whose presence would
not give rise to concerns that the Ba'thists might be using
Allawi as a means to return to power. Poloffs assured
al-Dabbagh that the United States would never countenance a
return of the Ba'thists to power in Iraq, and that it was
important for the Ba'thists to be persuaded to lay down their
arms, participate in the democratic political process, and
renounce violence. Al-Dabbagh said that it would be helpful
for Muhammad Ridha to be re-assured from time to time that
the Shi'a would not lose the benefits of democracy.
17. (C/REL UK) Comment. Ali al-Dabbagh was not elected to
the Council of Representatives, but remains a Shia insider
who is in direct communication with people close to Ayatollah
Sistani. Al-Dabbagh commands a strong media presence and is
likely to stay visible in Iraqi politics, as the next PM
Spokesperson or as a television commentator on Iraqi
politics. PolOffs view al-Dabbagh's proposed approach toward
a calmer and more predictable Muqtada as thought provoking,
but dubious. End Comment.
KHALILZAD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2036
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM ECON IZ
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: MODERATE SHIA
ISLAMIST SAYS PM RACE IS DEAD HEAT.
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).
1. (S/REL UK) Summary. In a February 10 meeting, independent
moderate Shi'a Islamist Ali al-Dabbagh told Poloffs that the
two leading United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) candidates for Prime
Minister, Ibrahim Jafari and 'Adil 'Abd al-Madhi, are in a
dead heat, with eight or more Alliance members still
undecided. Based on this, Fadhila Party Nadim al-Jabiri is
negotiating for the best package, indicating that his 15
votes could determine the next PM. Dabbagh said the Sadrists
plan to vote February 11 in a way likely to ensure that all
their votes go to Jafari. Al-Dabbagh hinted that both Jafari
and 'Abd al-Madhi have asked him to be spokesperson.
Al-Dabbagh confirmed that the formula for choosing cabinet
ministers will be the same as last time, in which the party
that gets the prime ministership is not likely to get any
major ministries. He also recommended that the USG and GOI
"recognize" Moqtada al-Sadr in an effort to keep him calm and
controllable. End Summary.
--------------
Shia Independents Weigh In
--------------
2. (C/REL UK) Independent moderate Shi'a Islamist Ali
al-Dabbagh, a member of the Transitional National Assembly,
formerly a spokesman for the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA),and
disappointed candidate for the Council of Representatives
(CoR),told Poloffs February 10 that the UIA independents
were likely to divide their votes: 15 votes for Deputy
President 'Adil 'Abd al-Madhi and 5 votes for Prime Minister
Ibrahim Jafari. According to al-Dabbagh, the Sadrists plan
to have their members turn in their votes separately, so that
all 30 or so members will, in the name of party unity, have
their votes cast for Jafari.
--------------
Determining the Breakdown
--------------
3. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh stressed that efforts were underway
on Friday to reach consensus without a vote. If there is a
vote, Al-Dabbagh saw the race as a near dead heat, with the
remaining 8-10 votes unknown.
60 For Jafari:
25 Da'wa Party and Da'wa Tanzim al-Iraq
30 Sadrists
5 Independents
45 For 'Abd al-Mahdi:
30 SCIRI and Badr Organization
15 Independents
15 swing votes:
15 Fadhila Party
--------------
Fadhila Still Vying
--------------
4. (C/REL UK) Community leader Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who hosted
the meeting with al-Dabbagh, told Poloffs that Fadhila Party
leader Nadim al-Jabiri knows his 15 votes can make or break
either PM candidate, so he is using this to negotiate the
best package out of both of them. According to al-Dabbagh,
al-Jabiri said if he does not get what he wants from either
'Abd al-Madhi or Jafari, he would leave the Alliance.
However, al-Dabbagh reported that Fadhila spiritual leader
Shaykh al-Yacubi in Najaf told him that he wanted Fadhila to
stay in the Alliance.
--------------
Jafari vs. 'Abd al-Madhi
--------------
5. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh had a realistic appraisal of both
Jafari and 'Abd al-Mahdi. He said that there is no guarantee
of success with Jafari as PM. "He will only last two years
in the job because Jafari does not have the ability to listen
and learn from others. Besides, his relationship with the
Kurds will do him in," commented al-Dabbagh. Al-Dabbagh said
he believed that Jafari, in his heart, wants to do the right
thing. Al-Kadhimi added that Jafari rid himself of most of
his first-term advisors, leaving only Falah Fayadh. (Note:
Former Jafari spokesman Laith Kubba recently praised Fayadh
to Emboff as one of Jafari's most capable advisers. End
note.) Al-Kadhimi said Jafari went as far as to request a
meeting with secular Allawi supporter Rend Rahim to get her
BAGHDAD 00000420 002 OF 003
perspective on how to organize his office. Al-Dabbagh
claimed Jafari is serious about reforming his inner circle,
but he will also continue to listen to several of his
old-line Da'wa supporters.
6. (C/REL UK) In comparison, al-Dabbagh said that 'Abd
al-Mahdi had surrounded himself with solid advisors (Farid
Yassen, Zuhair Hamudi, Mohammad al-Hakim, Thamir Ghadban and
others). Al-Dabbagh hinted that both Jafari and 'Abd
al-Madhi had approached him about accepting the position of
spokesperson.
--------------
Iranian Influence
--------------
7. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh was concerned about the extent of
Iranian influence over the next government, whoever led it.
Neither Jafari nor 'Abd al-Mahdi would sacrifice relations
with Iran, he said. He reasoned that Jafari is willing to
make a deal with anyone to become a success, making him much
more susceptible to Iranian offers. Al-Dabbagh admitted that
'Abd al-Madhi will have difficulty going against SCIRI/Badr.
"'Adil can refuse some requests from (Hadi) al-Ameri and
Badr," al-Dabbagh said, using the argument that anything Badr
gets, Sadr will want, too. However, 'Abd al-Madhi aspires to
eventually strengthen himself away from SCIRI, but relies
entirely on Hakim as his power base.
8. (S/REL UK) Outside the capital, however, al-Dabbagh
acknowledged that Iranian influence is increasing.
Al-Dabbagh said that Iranian intelligence (he used the
Persian word Etellat, but did not specify whether he had in
mind the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force or the
Ministry of Intelligence and Security) was now more powerful
than ever, and was having an influence over the security arm
of Badr. "Badr said it was a humanitarian organization" a
year ago, al-Dabbagh said. "Now Badr says it will protect
rallies -- how can it do that if it is a humanitarian
organization?" Badr is forming new organizations: "Friends
of Badr" and "Friends of SCIRI," with vague and potentially
menacing mandates. "People like me are facing people who
have money and (their own) security," he said. "This is
misused by the Iranians." In Karbala, he said, "when you
start talking against Badr, you are killed." Badr,
al-Dabbagh said, was "behaving like the Sadrists."
--------------
Cabinet Formation
--------------
9. (C/REL UK) "The formula for choosing cabinet ministers
will be the same as last time," said al-Dabbagh, with the
party that gets the Prime Ministership not getting any of the
other major ministries. He added that the Sadrists will not
give up any of their ministries. Al-Dabbagh predicted that
Fadhila will offer the Oil Ministry to South Oil Company head
Jabar Ali al-Luhaybi, and Hoshyar Zebari will remain as
Foreign Minister. Al-Dabbagh thought Tawfiq al-Yasiri would
make a good Minister of Defense and Barham Saleh could resume
the job of Deputy Prime Minister. Al-Dabbagh considered
Qassim Daoud an excellent choice for Minister of Interior
except for his poor health. (Note: Daoud had heart surgery
in late 2005 with a follow-up procedure in early 2006. End
note.)
10. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh has been a public advocate for the
proposed National Security Council. Al-Dabbagh said the
Council should not have executive authority. He envisioned a
Council that would decide strategies for the country, i.e.
negotiate with the insurgency, decide Iraq's relations with
neighboring countries, promote national reconciliation, and
outline constitutional review issues. The Council should
have ten members, one of whom, al-Dabbagh said, should be
former PM Ayad Allawi.
11. (C/REL UK) SCIRI head 'Abd al-'Aziz al-Hakim has no
objection to Allawi, al-Dabbagh said; the problem is Muqtada
al-Sadr. Al-Dabbagh said he had talked recently to Allawi,
Hakim and Sadr supporters about Allawi's participation in the
government. Sadr's top aides may be softening, al-Dabbagh
said -- they are saying now that "they can't say yes yet,"
because Sadr himself is in Syria. Al-Dabbagh said he
believed that relations between Allawi and Sadr could be
worked out, but that Allawi should take some symbolic step to
show respect to Muqtada; he need not offer him anything
substantive. A visit by Allawi to Muqtada would be useful,
al-Dabbagh said, but Allawi had indicated such a visit was
unlikely.
BAGHDAD 00000420 003 OF 003
--------------
Muqtada Wants Respect
--------------
12. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh warned that the rivalry between
Hakim/Badr and Muqtada Sadr could become more and more
violent. Al-Dabbagh suggested the USG open a channel to
Sadr, who has 28-30 seats, as a legitimate player on the
political scene. "Recognition and legitimacy will keep
Muqtada more calm and predictable," commented al-Dabbagh. "He
wants to be assured people are listening to him." In
response to Poloffs' question, Dabbagh said Muqtada listens
to Mustafa al-Yaqubi, Riyadh al-Nuri, and Jafar Muhammad
Hamid Bakr al-Sadr.
--------------
Reforming the Economy Is Key
--------------
13. (C/REL UK) Reforming the economy is the key to Iraqi
political recovery, al-Dabbagh (a businessman) said. Asked
what his advice would be to an incoming Prime Minister of
Iraq, he said, "Give the private sector in Iraq a chance."
Al-Dabbagh advocated getting the banking system up and
running -- which he indicated would take one to two years.
The construction industry could lead the economic recovery.
The Basra port needed to be improved and Sadrist corruption
in the port needed to be stopped. Insurance needed to become
more available, and the Iraqi government-run insurance
company needed seed capital of several million dollars to get
going quickly. Agriculture required help, too, and old
industries should be privatized with help given to 800,000
industrial workers likely to be made redundant to find new
jobs.
14. (C/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh said the Iraqi budget was
sufficient for this year, but needs substantial new funds for
2007, when donor funds dry up. There should be considerable
new investment in the Iraqi oil and gas industry now in order
to create revenues for 2007.
--------------
Role of the Marja'iyya
--------------
15. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh, who thought he was close to Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani until Sistani's all-but-open
December endorsement of the UIA doomed al-Dabbagh's
independent candidacy, said that Sistani was being drawn too
far into politics in recent months. Dabbagh said that
Ayatollah Sistani's son, Sayyid Muhammad Ridha al-Sistani,
was getting too involved in the details of government, at the
behest of Hakim and Husayn Shahristani. "People in Baghdad"
(referring to Hakim and Husayn Shahristani) "were pulling
Muhammad Ridha down and using him in the details."
Al-Dabbagh said he hoped to go see his close friend Jawad
Shahristani, Ayatollah Sistani's son-in-law in Qum, Iran, to
urge the marja'iyya to stay above the political fray lest
their reputations be diminished by involvement in day-to-day
politics.
16. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh assured Poloffs that Sayyid
Muhammad Ridha respects the United States for what it has
done in Iraq. He said that Muhammad Ridha was concerned,
however, about reports of recent contacts between U.S.
officials and insurgents. He reportedly fears this is the
first step towards the return of Ba'thists to political life
and then to power. Al-Dabbagh said that Muhammad Ridha also
believes that Allawi has surrounded himself with the worst of
the former Ba'thists, instead of others whose presence would
not give rise to concerns that the Ba'thists might be using
Allawi as a means to return to power. Poloffs assured
al-Dabbagh that the United States would never countenance a
return of the Ba'thists to power in Iraq, and that it was
important for the Ba'thists to be persuaded to lay down their
arms, participate in the democratic political process, and
renounce violence. Al-Dabbagh said that it would be helpful
for Muhammad Ridha to be re-assured from time to time that
the Shi'a would not lose the benefits of democracy.
17. (C/REL UK) Comment. Ali al-Dabbagh was not elected to
the Council of Representatives, but remains a Shia insider
who is in direct communication with people close to Ayatollah
Sistani. Al-Dabbagh commands a strong media presence and is
likely to stay visible in Iraqi politics, as the next PM
Spokesperson or as a television commentator on Iraqi
politics. PolOffs view al-Dabbagh's proposed approach toward
a calmer and more predictable Muqtada as thought provoking,
but dubious. End Comment.
KHALILZAD