GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: SHAHRISTANI SAYS GAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000357

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2026
TAGS: IZ PGOV PNAT
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION UPDATE: SHAHRISTANI SAYS GAP
NARROWING IN PM RACE; HASHIMI SAYS SUNNIS PONDERING
GOVERNMENT POSITIONS

Classified By: POL Couns Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Shia Independent PM candidate Shahristani told
visiting DAS Godec February 6 that the gap has narrowed
considerably in UIA 555 discussion on PM candidates. Both
Shahristani and Shia Independent Sami al-Askari told us
February 6 that the Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555)
would put the matter to a vote on February 11. Askari also
claimed that al-Jabiri has dropped out of the race amidst
internet chatter that the Fadhila leader published pro-
Saddam articles in the 1980's. SCIRI insider and MFA
official Hamid Bayati told us February 6 that Jafari is
merely delaying the List 555 PM decision to wring
concessions from SCIRI. In particular, Bayati claimed,
Jafari wants to be named the head of the List 555 block
inside the parliament - a position now held by SCIRI head
Abdel Aziz al-Hakim.Tawafuq's Tariq al-Hashimi said the
Sunni coalition should have a list of cabinet candidates to
share with the Embassy in a few days, noting that both he
and Muslim Brotherhood's Osama al-Tikriti are potential
presidency candidates. We report these discussions not
because of landmark decisions but rather to demonstrate the
thinking and occasional weird stories that we find among
political contacts now. Talks between the blocks are still
at an early stage: we lack final election results which
might matter for List 555 if the race between Abd al-Mahdi
and Jafari is down to a few votes. In addition, we don't
have a clear List 555 leader for program negotiations which
the new PM should be. Discussions will shift into a higher
gear after February 11 when we could have a List 555 PM
nominee and final election results. END SUMMARY

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SHAHRISTANI: ADMITS LIMITED SUPPORT
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2. (C) During a February 6 meeting with NEA/DAS Godec, TNA
Deputy Speaker and Shia Prime Minister candidate Hussein
al-Shahristani explained that the Shia Islamist Coalition
is still trying "very hard" to reach consensus on a
candidate and that the gap has been narrowed considerably.
As a result, the Shia Coalition postponed the Prime
Minister vote until Saturday, February 11. Shahristani
said that the Coalition fears that a close vote could
exacerbate its internal tensions. He added that members
are prepared to vote if no agreement can be reached.
Although Shahristani has not conceded the race, he admitted
that he currently does not have support from any group
outside the independents. Shahristani said that the Shia
coalition would be happy to negotiate with Tawafuq and Ayad
Allawi's Iraqi National List as a combined bloc (if it
comes to fruition) or separately with each party. He also
noted that the Shia Islamist Coalition is readying a
political program that includes heavy accents on security,
national economic reconstruction and employment.

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ASKARI SAYS BOTH SHAHRISTANI AND JABIRI OUT
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4. (C) Independent UIC 555 coalition member Sami Al-Askari,
however, told poloff February 6 that Shahristani has in
fact told other Shia independents that he has decided to
drop out of the PM race. Askari said the Shia coalition
will vote to decide who will be Iraq's next Prime Minister
February 11. He claimed that Fadhila Party leaders had
asked that the vote take place on this date because it is
considering backing Prime Minister Jafari rather than
Deputy President Abd al-Mahdi. Askari alleged that there
is internet chatter that Jabiri published articles under a
pseudonym in the 1980's praising Saddam Hussein. Askari
claimed that Fadhila spiritual leader Ayatollah Yaqubi is
considering backing Jafari, and the party is awaiting his
final decision. Al-Askari also claimed Nadeem al-Jabiri
has dropped out of the race. (Comment: we have not heard
such a thing from Jabiri himself, and February 6 press
reports show his aides insisting the PM issue is not yet
decided. End Comment. We report this, therefore, mainly
to show the kinds of chatter on the Baghdad circuits now.)


5. (C) SCIRI Council of Representatives members Abdul
Kareem al-Nakeeb and Abdul Jabar Rehaif al-Abudi echoed
Askari's views in a separate February 6 conversation with
poloff. They said there had been an agreement to hold a
vote that day, but that it was decided that no decision

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could be made until after the IECI announced the final,
certified election results. Nakeeb and al-Abudi were
confident that Deputy President Adel Abd al-Mahdi would be
chosen as the next Prime Minister.


6. (C) Another SCIRI insider, Deputy Foreign Minister
Hamid Bayati, told us February 6 that Abd al-Mahdi will get
the PM nod from the Shia Coalition. He said that Jafari is
merely delaying the outcome hoping to secure concessions
from SCIRI. In particular, Bayati claimed, Jafari wants to
be named the head of the Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555)
inside the parliament - a position now held by SCIRI head
Abdel Aziz al-Hakim. Bayati with a wry smile predicted
SCIRI would not be accommodating and could accept the
February 11 vote outcome without a pre-cooked deal.

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SUNNI LIST
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7. (C) In a separate February 6 meeting with DAS Godec,
Sunni Arab Tawafuq Front leaders Adnan al-Dulaymi and Tariq
al-Hashimi dismissed out of hand the possibility of Qassim
Daoud taking over a security ministry. Dulaymi was equally
dismissive of Mithal Alusi ("he's not one of us!").
Hashimi said that making sure that non-sectarian
professionals with no ties to the militias are in charge of
the security ministries is a Tawafuq red line. Hashimi
told Poloff that Sunnis are putting together a list of
possible candidates for senior government positions and
should have a list to share with the Embassy in a few days.
Hashimi said that he or the Muslim Brotherhood's Osama al-
Tikriti would be likely Tawafuq candidates for the Iraqi
Presidency should Tawafuq seek that position.


8. (C) Separately, Salih Mutlak told Poloff that there is
no truth to published reports that his Iraqi National
Dialogue Front (with 11 seats) had joined the List 555
coalition. Mutlak said he had no projection on the outcome
of the PM sweepstakes saying only that Jafari and Abd al-
Mahdi are close. Mutlak met Jafari on February 6 but
claims he was not offered a position nor did he offer
Jafari his support. Mutlak said that leaders of the MARAM
front, formed after the election to protest the results,
met on February 5 and decided that the Front will continue
to exist as a political coalition, with a head to be
elected at a later date.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) As our reporting over the past several days shows,
the Iraqi political class is hard at work chewing over
possibilities. In typical Iraqi fashion, there is more
attention to personalities winning cabinet seats than there
is to agreed government programs. We have heard from more
thoughtful members of the political elite, such as Fuad
Masum and Hussein Shahristani, that they have started
drafting out government program proposals. We are starting
to lay out ideas as well. Above all, the talks are still
at an early stage: we lack final election results which
might matter for List 555 if the race between Abd al-Mahdi
and Jafari is down to a few votes. In addition, we don't
have a clear List 555 leader for program negotiations which
the new PM should be. Discussions will shift into a higher
gear after February 11 when we could have a List 555 PM
nominee and final election results.

KHALILZAD