Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAGHDAD2695
2006-07-28 13:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: THE ROAD AHEAD

Tags:  PGOV PNAT KDEM IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4076
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #2695/01 2091358
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 281358Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5956
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHWSR/WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0504
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002695 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: THE ROAD AHEAD

REF: BAGHDAD 1512

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Margaret Scobey for Reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002695

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: THE ROAD AHEAD

REF: BAGHDAD 1512

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Margaret Scobey for Reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: While some in Baghdad's political class
continue to discuss the possibility of Provincial Elections
before the end of 2006, legal, technical and logistical
reasons make an early spring (March 2007) date more likely.
A law to establish the Independent High Electoral Commission
(IHEC),needed to administer elections, has been introduced
into the Council of Representatives (CoR),but important
issues remain unresolved, and the law will not pass until
sometime after the CoR returns from its August recess. In
addition, the CoR must pass legislation setting dates and
other parameters for provincial council elections. While
discussion of such a law may have begun in the relevant CoR
committee, no draft has been presented. Additional electoral
events are anticipated in 2007. END SUMMARY.

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


2. (C) Provincial council elections (and possibly district
and municipal council elections) are expected to occur in the
near future in the 18 provinces (governorates) of Iraq.
Provincial council elections were last held in January 2005.
When the CoR was elected in December 2005, provincial council
elections were deferred indefinitely. Some provinces (Babil
and Basrah) have started drafting local election laws and
plans, increasing pressure on the central government to set
nation-wide provincial elections. No date has yet been set.

--------------
THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR ELECTIONS
--------------


3. (C) To hold nation-wide provincial council elections, Iraq
needs a functioning electoral commission to administer the
election, and a law authorizing the election and funding its
administration. The CoR must pass two laws:

-- First, a law establishing the Independent High Electoral
Commission (IHEC),consistent with Article 102 of the Iraqi
constitution, so that the election can be administered. A
bill has already been introduced (reftel) but will not likely
be acted on until sometime after the CoR returns from its
August recess. The IHEC law, as drafted, covers the key

points: it establishes the commission to administer and
regulate all elections in Iraq, sets out an appointment
mechanism and qualifications for board members, provides for
a central administrative body and provincial/regional
offices, and for certification of election results and a
court appeals mechanism. (Comment: The current draft is weak
in its respect for independence of the commission. It allows
the CoR to remove elections commissioners easily, and gives
the CoR an undefined supervisory role. Embassy and
international election NGOs continue to engage drafters and
key representatives on this issue. End Comment.)

-- Second, a law authorizing and funding the provincial
council election. At its simplest, the law will set a date,
state which offices will be on the ballot (only provincial
councils, or also district and municipal councils),and
provide an election-specific budget to IHEC. All other
details could be handled by the IHEC. This approach would be
minimalist. The CoR could also choose to redefine the
authorities and powers of the provincial councils for which
the elections would be held, as contemplated by Article 122
of the Constitution, or to reaffirm or replace CPA Order 97,
the order regulating political parties and entities.
(Comment: If district and municipal elections are included in
the law, voter registration and boundary issues will become
serious hurdles, and opportunities for fraud will increase.
End Comment.)

-------------- --------------
THE TIMING AND ADMINISTRATION OF PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS
-------------- --------------


4. (C) The timing of provincial council elections will be set
politically, but practical logistical considerations will
have a bearing on how soon they can be held. There has been
some political expectation that elections will be held by the
end of this year. This seems unlikely. Logistically, the
International Election Assistance Team (IEAT) states, based
on last year's elections, that approximately 135 days are
needed, forecasting a first quarter of 2007 (March) date
after taking into account the need for legislation. To

BAGHDAD 00002695 002 OF 002


accelerate preparations, but still have an election meeting
international standards of freedom and fairness, will require
concentrated efforts by the GOI and the international
community (including the USG) to establish the IHEC and
assist it to administer the election.


5. (C) Given that that the IHEC law is unlikely to pass
before September at the earliest, a new Commission will not
be in place before October. Staff from the current
Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) could
continue some preparations in advance of the Board being
named, and the provincial election law passing. The IECI is,
for example, already working with public food distribution
lists to create a provincial-level voter list.


6. (C) Affecting the IHEC's ability to stand up rapidly and
prepare for free and fair provincial elections is disarray in
the existing elections commission which could have spill over
effects on staff and international support. The IECI is rife
with political infighting and allegations of corruption. On
July 16, Chief Electoral Officer Adil Allami and four other
employees were taken into custody by Iraqi police at the
request of the Commission for Public Integrity (CPI). In
Emboff discussions with UNAMI and IEAT advisor to IECI, it
was relayed that staff morale is very low and some
experienced employees have left.

--------------
SECURITY AND TRANSPARENCY PLANNING
--------------


7. (C) Armed confrontations and significant voter
intimidation are possible, including from fracturing of
political coalitions at the provincial level as control of
provincial councils is hotly contested. The IHEC, the
Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense Security will
need to plan for security of provincial council candidates,
voters, and polling places. MNF-I is expected to play a key
supporting role. Development of a detailed security plan
will depend on the schedule for candidate registration and
campaigning, and for the vote itself.


8. (C) Transparency and avoidance of serious fraud are also
critical challenges. In 2005, Iraqi civil society
organizations served a useful and effective role in
monitoring elections and referenda to provide transparency
and prevent fraud. These organizations will once again have
to be engaged. International observers and monitors were
sparse, however, due to the security situation. This may
again chill outside observation.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Politics could push the CoR to set a date for
provincial council elections before the end of this year,
despite logistical and technical considerations pointing to a
Spring 2007 (March) date. The collapse of the IECI, and need
to constitute the IHEC, will make conducting elections on
this ambitious schedule difficult. Continued support from
the UN-led IEAT, the USAID-funded IFES project, and the
international community will be key to keeping the IHEC on
track to meet demands placed on it. Such assistance will
need to assemble and increase in capability swiftly once an
election date is set.

-------------- --
ADDENDUM: OTHER ELECTORAL EVENTS ON THE HORIZON
-------------- --


10. (C) At least 5 additional electoral events could occur
over the next 18 months in Iraq (through December 2007).
District and municipal council elections will need to be
held, at the same time or after provincial council elections,
in the 102 organized districts in Iraq, and over 700
municipalities. The constitutional review process may result
in a referendum on amendments, approximately six months from
when it starts. The referendum on Kirkuk, provided for in
the TAL and Article 140 of the Constitution, has been
proposed for 15 November 2007. Under Article 119 of the
Constitution, a referendum could also be held on a request by
several governorates to form a new region; such a referendum
could likely not occur until after the CoR passes executive
procedures to form regions.
SCOBEY