MODERATE ISLAMIST CABINET CONTENDER URGES USG TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002065

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR PNAT ECON EAIR ELTN ETRD KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: MODERATE ISLAMIST CABINET CONTENDER URGES USG TO
PERSUADE MALIKI TO TAKE ON QUALIFIED ADVISORS

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARGARET SCOBEY FOR RE
ASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/REL UK) Summary: In a June 8 meeting with Emboffs,
moderate Islamist Ali al-Dabbagh (strictly protect) said that
the present Sadrist Minister of Transportation, Karim Mahdi
Salih, may be forced to resign and that he is a possible
candidate to replace him. Dabbagh claimed to be undecided as
to whether he would take the job if offered, because he is
unsure that he would be able act independently and implement
free market reforms. At a subsequent meeting with Poloffs
Jun 9, al-Dabbagh argued that many of the new ministers are
not qualified for their jobs. He said that only competent
advisors working on the Prime Minister's staff could overcome
this problem. Dabbagh claimed, however, that qualified
advisors may not be willing to work for Prime Minister (PM)
al-Maliki because they will not have access to the PM if he
continues to rely too much on a tight circle of Dawist
advisors. Al-Dabbagh expressed his concerns that the current
government might soon fall, to which PolOff replied that the
USG is doing everything it can to make this government a
success. End Summary.

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Replacement Candidate for Ministry of Transportation?
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2. (S/REL UK) Ali al-Dabbagh told Emboffs in a June 8 meeting
that he is a possible candidate to replace Sadrist Karim
Mahdi Salih as Minister of Transportation. He said that he
is not certain if he will take the job because he is wary of
serving as a "Sadrist" minister. Al-Dabbagh said the former
Sadrist Minister of Transportation, Salam al-Maliki used his
position to funnel approximately 300,000 USD to the Sadr
Bureau each month. Al-Dabbagh said he told Sadr's aides
that, if he served as minister, he would have to do things
his way, which would include not committing graft.


3. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh told EmbOffs that his initial
priorities as Minister of Transportation would be the port
and aviation sectors. He said there is a great deal of
corruption at the ports that needs to be rooted out, and that
continued dredging is necessary to increase port capacity.
Al-Dabbagh told us that he would work to improve management
of Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and seek funds to
expand the fleet of Iraqi Airways. He said he believes
privatization of the airline is necessary but several years
off. Al-Dabbagh also said continued reconstruction of Iraq's
rail system is important, and he described his vision of
constructing a line running from Turkey to the Gulf. In
addition, Dabbagh said he would work to build capacity within
the Ministry, staffing it with technocrats rather than
political hangers-on.

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Al-Dabbagh's View of the New Cabinet
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4. (S/REL UK) On June 9, al-Dabbagh gave Poloffs a bleak
picture of the incoming cabinet. He said the ministers of
Water (Latif Rashid),Electricity (Karim Wahid al-Hasan) and
Foreign Affairs (Hoshyar Zebari) were fully qualified.
Al-Dabbagh argued that the rest of the ministers were
unqualified, singling out the ministers of Finance (Bayan
Jabr),Oil (Husayn Shahristani),Trade (Abd al-Falah
al-Sudani),Communications (Muhammad Allawi),and
Municipalities and Public Works (Riyadh Ghuraiyib)

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Strong PM Advisors Needed
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5. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh said PM al-Maliki should have
first-rate advisors who could ensure that the ministries
followed policies that would solve the country's problems.
Former PM Jafari's advisor Falah Fiad and al-Dabbagh had
worked on an organization chart for such an advisor's office,
and Dabbagh had talked to several potential advisors,
including former Minister of Finance Ali Allawi, his deputy,
and former Minister of Oil Thamir Ghadban.

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Sami al-Askari Has Maliki's Ear
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6. (S/REL UK) The problem, al-Dabbagh said, is that Maliki is
relying too much on Sami al-Askari to pick his top advisors,
and al-Askari is relying on the network of his son, Yassir
al-Askari, and his group, the Iraqi Prospect Organization
(IPO). (Note: IPO was a London-based opposition group

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established by young Shia medical students in 2002. The
London group moved to Baghdad after the liberation, and
established a Baghdad chapter, which CPA helped fund. Once
funds started coming in, however, the group fell apart, with
allegations of corruption and mismanagement on all sides. It
was impossible to determine which side was right, but the
group agreed to separate amicably, with the London-based
oppositionists returning home to continue their medical
studies and political work. Members of the group continued
to run a web site and to publish articles and scholarly
analyses, mostly from a Dawa and democratic Islamist
perspective. Their website is www.iprospect.org.uk. End
note.) IPO Chairman Ahmad Shames has been hired as one such
advisor, al-Dabbagh said. He added that Maliki's advisors
are making the same mistakes that Jafari's advisors made --
drawing only on Dawa loyalists and on people with
insufficient experience to run a prime minister's office.

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Problems Only the Competent Can Solve
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7. (S/REL UK) In the ministries, problems abound, al-Dabbagh
said. The Ministry of Industry has spent only two percent of
its budget for 2006. The Labor and Social Affairs ministry
has a budget of 500 billion Iraqi dinars (USD 300 million)
for a major social program, but has helped only 5,000
families -- one percent of the families eligible for
assistance. Dabbagh alleged that Sayyid Abd al-Aziz
al-Hakim supported Interior Minister Jawad Bolani only
because Bolani agreed to keep the arrangements in place that
Bayan Jabr had set up in the Interior Ministry. "Hakim wants
a weak minister," al-Dabbagh said. Given the situation in
the ministries, Dabbagh stressed the importance of the Prime
Minister having qualified advisors working for him. Dabbagh
added that if bad staff blocks access to Maliki, the good
advisers will not stay. Meanwhile, Dabbagh said,
gamesmanship continues around Maliki. Falah Fiad may play a
role, but Ali Adeeb is trying to exclude Fiad. Sami
al-Askari is trying to control staff appointments, but his
network of contacts, Dabbagh repeated, is too limited.

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And What If It Fails?
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8. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh asked PolOff what the USG would do
if the Maliki Government failed. Poloff replied that the
United States was focused only on making the Maliki
government a success. Al-Dabbagh said he thought it
inevitable that several ministers would have to be replaced
for incompetence, but that he hoped the government did not
fall, or, if it did, that the fall would be handled in a
constitutional way.

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Unhappiness With Yaqubi
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9. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh said he has told Fadhila spiritual
head Sheikh Muhammad al-Yaqubi that he (al-Dabbagh) does not
want to be identified as being Deputy Secretary-General of
the Fadhila party. Instead, he wants to be considered as an
independent. He indicated he would be leaving the party, but
does not want to do so in haste, to avoid the impression he
left because he did not get a ministry. His real reason for
leaving, Dabbagh explained, was that Sheikh Yaqubi in several
important instances failed to approve his political advice,
e.g., how the party should position itself in ministerial
negotiations, and how it should try to relate to other
parties within the United Iraqi Coalition. To have these
issues decided by the party's spiritual leader would
constitute wilayet al-faqih, a doctrine al-Dabbagh said he
would not follow. The new Secretary-General and leader of
Fadhila is Abd al-Rahim al-Hasuna, a Fadhila Party member
from Nasiriyah.

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Comment
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10. (S/REL UK) Comment: Al-Dabbagh has no experience in the
transportation sector, but his civil engineering education
and his business experience running a fabrication company
would give him some background needed for running the
Transportation Ministry. In addition, al-Dabbagh has long
expressed an open-market philosophy. He told us that if Iraq
is ever to achieve economic prosperity, it first needs to
reduce subsidies and stock its ministries with technocrats
rather than politicos. Al-Dabbagh, however, also told us he

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is wary of Sadrists expecting him to utilize the Ministry as
a money generator for Sadrist political purposes. It remains
to be seen whether al-Dabbagh could remain committed to his
free-market reform principles while serving in a "Sadrist"
ministry.


11. (S/REL UK) Comment continued: Some of al-Dabbagh's
comments on the cabinet could be considered the sour grapes
of a disappointed office seeker. They could also be viewed
as reaffirmation that Iraqi Shia views are not monolithic.
Another independent, Mustafa al-Kadhimy (strictly protect)
of the Iraq Memory Foundation, told us June 9 that the only
competent ministers were Electricity, Water, Foreign Affairs
and DPM Salih (i.e., essentially the same list as Dabbagh's).
He said that Ayatollah Husayn al-Sadr of Kadhimiya, now in
Amman for medical treatment, was very angry over the lack of
competence in the cabinet. Kadhimy said he has known
Minister of Interior Jawad Boulani for more than ten years,
and he is more sectarian than Bayan Jabr. End comment.
SPECKHARD