IRAQI GOVERNMENT FORMATION: BARGAINING DURING END

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001655

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2026
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI GOVERNMENT FORMATION: BARGAINING DURING END
GAME

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: As of midday May 18, a final deal on the
new cabinet was close, but there were last minute changes
and demands. The Finance, Interior and Defense slots were
still undecided and we heard Tawafuq grumbling about some
of the candidates proposed. Tawafuq negotiator Ali Baban
told Poloff on May 18 that Tawafuq is also asking for an
adjustment of its ministries, but it will participate in
the government even if their demands were rejected.
Meanwhile, Iraqiya asked to trade the Human Rights Ministry
for Transportation, Industry or Agriculture. Rumors that
Iraqiya would withdraw from government negotiations if
their demands for another ministry are not met appear
overstated, and there were signs that the Shia Islamist
Coalition would be willing to grant Iraqiya a Minister of
State slot. Hewar's Saleh Mutlak demanded the Ministry of
State for National Dialogue to be made a full ministry and
wanted to trade Women's Affairs for Agriculture. He said
that he would accept what he gets, though he left open the
possibility of going into opposition. Much of this
swirling is typical at the end of an long Iraqi
negotiation; we see nothing that ultimately would break the
emerging deal. There was crash planning to have the
Parliament vote and inauguration on Saturday, May 20. PM-
designate Maliki may be seeking to use the May 20 date to
force the remaining big questions to closure. End
Summary.

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Tawafug Unhappy but on Board
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2. (S) Tariq al-Hashimi, one of the top leaders of
Tawafuq, told Poloff early May 18 that Tawafuq did not want
Nasar al-Amari to be Interior Minister; he claimed that he
had ties to the Badr Corps. In addition, Hashimi said,
Tawafuq was not comfortable with candidate for the Defense
Minister slot, Thamir as-Sultan.


3. (C) Meanwhile, another Tawafuq official (and
negotiator) Ali Baban told Poloff on May 18 that Tawafug
wanted a service-delivery ministry to compensate for the
loss of Health to the Sadrists. He said that PM-designate
Maliki offered them another Ministry of State (of their
choosing),but that Tawafuq wanted either Human Rights or
Justice. Tawafuq will wait until Maliki completed Maliki's
negotiations with Iraqiya and Hewar in the hope that a
ministry will become available. If Maliki refuses, "we
will participate" in the government on Maliki's terms - the
decision has been made - said Baban. There is still a
problem within Tawafuq since Shaikh Khalaf Alayan (of the
National Dialogue Council) and "others" rejected the
current ministerial offer, according to Baban. Embassy
help will be needed to convince Alayan to acquiesce, he
predicted. (Comment: the Embassy is intensively engaged
with all the leaders of Tawafuq and we are trying to
clarify Hashimi's exact objections to these two security
minister candidates mean. We interpret Baban's remark to
mean that Tawafuq would accept not getting a service-sector
ministry. We still sense that security portfolios are more
sensitive for Tawafuq and other political blocs too. End
Comment.)

Iraqiya in Tizzy as Allawi Goes Home to London
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4. (C) In a May 18 telephone with PolOff, Iraqiya Chief of
Staff Ibrahim al-Janabi contradicted rumors that Iraqiya
plans to withdraw from government negotiations. He added
that earlier on May 18 he had distributed letters to
Ambassador Khalilzad, Shia Coalition leader Abdul Aziz al-
Hakim, President Jalal Talabani, PM-designate Nuri al-
Maliki, and UK Ambassador William Patey affiriming
Iraqiya's desire to participate in the government but its
demand that it receive a "fair" share of ministries. The
letter stated that Iraqiya wished to exchange the Ministry
of Human Rights for a service ministry like Transportation,
Industry or Agriculture. It gave the Shia Coalition until
midnight to respond. In May 18 telephone calls with
PolFSN, senior Iraqiya member Judge Wael Abd al-Latif al-
Fadel and Iraqiyya negotiating team member Shaikh Hussein
Sha'alan both confirmed what al-Janabi reported. Al-Janabi
said that Iraqiya had not discussed whether it would
withdraw if the Shia Coalition does not reply. (Note:
Sha'alan speculated that if there is no response, Iraqiya
leaders would tell the media that the national unity
government is a failure. End Note.) Saad al-Janabi, an
Iraqiya insider told Poloff on May 18 noted that Iraqiya's

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demand that the Assistant Prime Minister be given rank and
stature is meant to appease Safia Suheil and is not serious
and is not a serious impediment for Iraqiya participation
in government. He said Ayad Allawi left Baghdad on May 17
and won't return until the end of the month. (Comment: we
are hearing indications that the Shia Coalition might
accept giving Iraqiya another Minister of State slot -
making the deal a little easier for them. End Comment.)

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Hewar Wants Agriculture
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5. (C) The smaller Sunni Arab bloc Hewar's Saleh Mutlak
told Poloff on May 18 that he wanted the Ministry of State
for National Dialogue that he had been offered to be a full
ministry. He also demanded the Agriculture ministry and
was willing to trade Women's Affairs for it. He complained
that his party has candidates with good experience in
agriculture (Mutlak owns a 75,000 acre farm) and would
nominate a qualified independent for the ministry whereas
the Sadrists have proposed a medical doctor. He also
complained that some Shia raised objections to Huda Nuaimi,
his nominee for Women's Affairs. She was neither a
Ba'thist nor has she ever held a position in Saddam's
regime, said Mutlak. Mutlak said he wanted to participate
in the government but must have something to show his
electorate and what was being offered is not enough. When
asked by Poloff what he would do if Maliki rejected his
demands, Mutlak responded that he will have to live with
whatever is offered or go into opposition. (Comment: we
sense he'll take what is offered. End Comment.)

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Kurds Tinkering with their Share
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6. (C) In a late night May 17 phone call, KDP Minister of
Industry designate Fawzi Hariri told PolOff that Kurdish
leadership had switched him to Minister of Culture. He
said that he is not thrilled about the change and will
lobby hard to get the Ministry of Industry and Minerals
back.

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Comment
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7. (C) The complaining and last-minute haggling is
entirely in keeping with the style of Iraqi negotiations.
Nothing above sounds like it would break the emerging deal.
That said, three key jobs still are undecided: Finance,
Interior and Defense. (We are not convinced by stories on
Iraqiya TV that the deal on Interior and Defense is done -
it looks like one of the negotiators trying to force
events.) Negotiations on specific candidates and
ministries are likely to continue until the very last
moment. By early afternoon May 18 there was a flurry of
Iraqi-inspired planning for a parliamentary confirmation of
the cabinet and the inauguration events for Saturday, May

20. Maliki may be using the press of the May 20 date to
bring the last contentious cabinet spots to closure. End
Comment.
KHALILZAD