AMBASSADOR OFFERS HIS CONDOLENCES TO ITALIAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001438

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PINS PNAT PTER KDEM KISL IT IZ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR OFFERS HIS CONDOLENCES TO ITALIAN
AMBASSADOR


Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for Reasons 1.4 (a),(b) and
(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 28, Ambassador offered his
condolences to Italian Ambassador Maurizio Melani for the
death of three Italian soldiers killed on April 27 in
Nasiriyah. He further committed to sharing any investigative
reports he receives from MNF-I on the incident. Melani
conveyed that he did not believe the death would change
either his Government's plan to reduce gradually its military
presence or its plan to establish a Provincial Reconstruction
Team (PRT) in Dhi Qar. Melani mentioned his concern with the
increasing instability in the south due to intensifying
rivalries between Shia-dominated groups and growing Iranian
influence. When asked his thoughts on Prime
Minister-designate Nuri al-Maliki, Melani opined that Maliki
seems to be a good choice as he has said "all the right
things." He added that the next few weeks, however, will
determine if Maliki can and will act on his words. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
CONDOLENCES AND STAYING THE COURSE
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador opened his meeting by offering Melani his
condolences for the attack on an Italian convoy traveling
through Nasiriyah that resulted in the loss of one Romanian
and three Italian soldiers. A fourth Italian soldier remains
in hospital in critical condition. The investigation thus
far is leaning toward the conclusion that the cause of death
was a homemade anti-tank Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP).
(NOTE: EFPs are being used increasingly by Iraqi terrorists
linked to Iran. These multi-charged, extremely powerful
devices were developed originally by Hizbollah in Lebanon and
are capable of penetrating the armor of a 60-ton Abrams tank.
The armored vehicles used by the Italians in the south offer
almost no protection against them. END NOTE.) Ambassador
assured Melani he would share any information he receives
from MNF-I on the incident.


3. (C) Melani stated that he believes that the incident will
not lead to a change in his government's troop reduction
schedule or PRT development plan. He thinks the progressive
withdrawal of troops, 1000 in July and most by the end of
2006 (leaving a 700-plus contingent for a protection and
training mission within the Italian planned PRT),will remain
on track. The Italian PRT currently is slated to open in
late May with a training workshop to be carried out in
Baghdad next week.

--------------
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH
--------------


4. (C) Melani is worried about increasing instability in the
southern provinces due to the intensifying rivalries among
Shia political/militia groups. It seems to him that Sadrists
(in particular, their militia Jaysh-al-Mahdi or JAM) are
gaining ground in both Basra and Dhi Qar. Ambassador
concurred with this concern and expressed hope that the new
government will be able to disband the militias peacefully
but also be ready to use force if necessary. When asked if
the Italians in Dhi Qar meet with political leaders from all
parties, Melani said yes and that Italian representatives had
a positive meeting with local Sadrists the previous day.
Melani said, however, he would not be surprised if Badr, or
more likely JAM, were involved in the convoy incident, just
as, if it had taken place elsewhere in Iraq, the likely
culprits would be Sunni extremists or Zarqawi. However, up
to this point in time, neither of these Sunni groups can
operate effectively in the southern territory. Lastly, he
said, JAM is spreading, with little discipline and no center
of control or authority.

--------------
IRANIAN INFLUENCE
--------------


5. (C) Melani was interested in Ambassador's thoughts on
growing Iranian influence in both Iraqi violence and
politics. Ambassador stated that Iranian influence is
significant in both spheres and that we must keep this in
check. He said, "We want Iraq to have good relations with
its neighbors, but we also insist that it be independent."
Ambassador said this is a message we need the international
community to send to Iraq. We also need the international
community to provide solid support to the new Iraqi
government so it will not feel it needs to lean on Iran.
Melani concurred with this message and both agreed that,

BAGHDAD 00001438 002 OF 002


based on their conversations with Iraqi leaders, it seems a
good many of them do not appreciate Iranian meddling.

--------------
PM-DESIGNATE AL MALIKI
--------------


6. (C) Ambassador requested Melani's thoughts on al Maliki.
Melani agreed with Ambassador that Maliki seems more decisive
and an overall stronger leader than Ja'afari. Maliki also
seems adamant about getting the government formed and
continues to say "all the right things." Melani said that it
is yet to be seen, however, if Maliki can live up to his
words and form a national unified government, end militias,
and appoint independent, non-sectarian leaders to the
security ministries.
KHALILZAD