Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ASUNCION296
2006-03-17 17:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Asuncion
Cable title:  

PARAGUAY: COLORADO INTERNAL ELECTIONS CAUSE

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PINR PA 
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DE RUEHAC #0296/01 0761741
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171741Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3975
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0177
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL//SCJ3/SCJ33/SCJ34/SOCSO LNO//
UNCLAS ASUNCION 000296 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: COLORADO INTERNAL ELECTIONS CAUSE
BACKLASH

REF: A. ASUNCION 200

B. ASUNCION 183 AND PRECEDING

UNCLAS ASUNCION 000296

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: COLORADO INTERNAL ELECTIONS CAUSE
BACKLASH

REF: A. ASUNCION 200

B. ASUNCION 183 AND PRECEDING


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Duarte's huge victory in the 2/19
Colorado Party elections bolstered his standing within the
Party but also engendered resentment among supporters of
Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (ODD) as well as the opposition
parties. ODD's supporters insist the election was decided by
massive fraud. Anecdotal evidence suggests fraud occurred
but we and other neutral observers remain skeptical that it
was of a magnitude to determine the election. The Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSJE) has lost much of its hard-earned
credibility. Duarte has used his political capital to seek
authority to assume the Colorado Party Presidency, which
required a Supreme Court decision that has drawn significant
criticism of Duarte and the Supreme Court. Duarte remains
focused on pursuing reelection, and, failing that, returning
control of his party so he can pick his successor. End
Summary.

--------------
Questions about Election Day
--------------


2. (U) Questions about the integrity of election balloting
started immediately after the vote count began. Two hours
after the polls closed it was clear that Duarte had obtained
a landslide victory over Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (ODD),in
stark contrast to every poll conducted. ODD and his
supporters claimed Duarte stole the elections through massive
fraud. Many political figures and civilian observers have
similarly alleged significant fraud. There have been credible
reports of cedulas (ID cards) for sale, persons long deceased
voting, members of other parties voting, and shifting voters
from one district to another to discourage voting.


3. (SBU) PolOff discussed this matter with Jorge Rolon, a
well-respected community activist. Rolon stated that while
some fraud very likely occurred, including manipulating
voters' lists, controlling the vote of government employees,
support from local officials, and buying/renting cedulas, it
was probably not on a large enough scale to decide the
election. However, Rolon also said that Duarte had gone too
far using government money to campaign and control votes (a
strong Paraguayan tradition). Furthermore, he noted that

political parties do not have independent electoral
tribunals, which subjects them to significant manipulation.

--------------
TSJE Losing Credibility?

SIPDIS
--------------


4. (SBU) On 3/9, PolOff discussed the Colorado Internal
Elections with Liliana Benitez, Director of Public Relations
at the Superior Elections Tribunal (TSJE). Benitez lamented
that the TSJE had come under fire from all of the political
parties since the Duarte victory. She conceded that the
victory was far larger than anyone expected and many
Paraguayans now believe that the Colorados managed to figure
out a way to manipulate the results. Benitez said that Blas
Llano, the Liberal Party (PLRA) President, has said that the
Liberals no longer support the idea of the national elections
relying on electronic balloting machines because he suspected
the machines had been manipulated. Note: The PLRA
successfully conducted internal elections in July 2005 using
the same machines. End Note.


5. (SBU) Benitez stated that the electronic balloting
machines had been checked by 5 Brazilian experts prior to the
election and immediately after the elections and that no
problems with the machines had been uncovered. During the
week of 3/6, another Brazilian expert examined the machines
to determine if there were any irregularities in the software
and determined there were no problems. Nevertheless, OAS
representatives have also questioned the vote count and have
queried TSJE officials about election day activities,
according to Benitez.

--------------
Challenging the Supreme Court
--------------


6. (U) On 3/9, in a 5-4 split decision, the Supreme Court
suspended temporarily the Superior Electoral Court (TSJE)

ruling prohibiting Duarte from exercising the Colorado
presidency. The TSJE had based its interpretation of Article
237 which prohibits the President of Paraguay from
discharging the responsibilities of another position. The
Supreme Court's decision prompted an immediate rebuke from
ODD's supporters and strident condemnation from the
opposition parties, all of whom accused the Supreme Court
judges of kowtowing to Duarte and violating Paraguay's
constitution. They also complained that the Supreme Court
ruled on Duarte's appeal of the TSJE ruling even though it
came weeks later than the prescribed five day time period.
Members of the PLRA supported by other opposition parties
have announced their intention to bring impeachment
proceedings against the justices that voted to allow Duarte
to exercise both offices and have threatened to pursue
similar proceedings against Duarte. (Note. Impeachment
requires a two-thirds majority in the House of Deputies. The
opposition concedes it presently does not have the votes but
insist the procedures will deliver a strong political
message. End Note.) The opposition parties are seeking to
make their case to the diplomatic community including the
U.S., Mercosur partners, and the EU.

-------------- --------------
Church and Supreme Court Justice Criticize Ruling
-------------- --------------


7. (U) Well-known political and civil society personalities
have also criticized the Supreme Court decision, describing
it as a clear violation of the Constitution. Monsignor
Ignacio Gogorza, President of the Paraguayan Episcopal
Conference (CEP) and Bishop of Encarnacion, questioned the
independence of the judiciary, asserting that the decision
violated the "spirit and the letter" of the Constitution.
Meanwhile, on 3/10, SC Justice Jose Altamirano of the Beloved
Fatherland Party, who voted against the decision, called on
the Catholic Church and civil society to protest the ruling.
Duarte supporters have criticized Altamirano and opened
impeachment proceedings against him for entering into the
political fray and inciting political protest. Colorado
Senator Julio Osvaldo Dominguez Wilson Smith (son of ODD) has
essentially defected from the Colorado Party and aligned
himself with the opposition in its condemnation of the Court
and Duarte on this issue.

--------------
A Referendum on Reelection?
--------------


8. (U) Until only recently, Duarte, seemingly unfazed by the
criticism, had continued to clamor for a Constituent Assembly
to be held in early 2007 availing an opportunity to amend the
Constitution and allow him to run for reelection. The
Constitution clearly provides that the holding of a
Constituent Assembly requires the support of a two-thirds
majority in both houses of Congress. Absent the support to
gain approval of this bid for a Constituent Assembly at the
present moment, Duarte has proposed holding a non-binding
popular referendum in November to coincide with municipal
elections that would gauge public support for a reform of the
Constitution and consequently place greater pressure on the
opposition to agree to convening a Constituent Assembly.
Given Duarte's sway over the Supreme Court, the opposition
has conveyed growing concern Duarte is capable of not only
stealing the votes to win such a referendum but then having
the Supreme Court decide that is sufficient basis to call for
a Constituent Assembly. They also point out the Constitution
proscribes the holding of a referendum within 90 days of any
other scheduled election. Duarte's supporters argue that
holding it the same day would overcome that prohibition.
This sets the groundwork for another controversial court
decision.

-------------- ---
Alderete Takes Over as Acting Colorado President
-------------- ---


9. (U) On 3/13, Duarte was officially recognized as the
victor in the Colorado Party Presidential elections. On
3/14, he was officially sworn in and presided over the first
session of the newly elected Colorado Executive Board before
announcing his anticipated decision to turn the presidency of
the party over to its first Vice-President Jose Alderete who,
in turn, announced his decision to step down as the Minister

of Public Works. Despite the fact that Duarte only presided
over the Executive Board for three hours and that then as his
first act stepped down as president, the opposition insists
that by definition he violated the Constitution. Of course,
it bears noting the TSJE set the stage for this controversy
when it ruled that Duarte could run for the Party Presidency
but could not exercise the office. Duarte decided to claim
the Presidency to leave himself open the possibility of
invoking or even reclaiming it at some later time in order to
designate the Colorado Party's nominee for the Presidential
elections if he is unable to run himself.

--------------
COMMENT: How Serious a Storm?
--------------


10. (U) Duarte's huge win at the ballot box has solidified
his stature as the most prominent political player in the
country. We hope he will use that capital to invigorate
political and economic reform. However, Duarte's decision to
assume the Party Presidency and, to continue his calls for a
Constituent Assembly cast him as obsessive in his
determination to pursue reelection. While there is a case to
be made that he violated at least the spirit of the
Constitution by assuming the Presidency for three hours, it
bears noting that in many respected democracies the leader of
the government is also the leader of his party. Ironically,
Duarte's strong push for reelection has proven counter
productive to date, as it has served a rallying point for the
opposition to unite. Duarte will need opposition support to
move legislation and the negotiations will likely soon begin,
rhetoric and anger aside.
CASON