PARAGUAY: DUARTE SCORES HUGE VICTORY IN PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: DUARTE SCORES HUGE VICTORY IN PARTY
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Political Counselor James P. Merz. Reason: 1.4(b),(d).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Summary. President Duarte registered a landslide
victory over his chief rival, Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (ODD) in
the 2/19 Colorado Party internal elections. This bolsters
Duarte's standing within the Colorado Party and reaffirms his
stature as the most important political player in the
country. Duarte has made it clear he sees this election as a
mandate to pursue reelection, which could require
disproportionate time, energy, and political manuevering to
secure opposition agreement to a Constituent Assembly. We
intend to press Duarte to use this victory as a mandate to
reembrace his reform agenda, on ice for some time as he has
had his sights on his campaign for the Party Presidency.
End Summary.

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Duarte Scores Huge Victory
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2. (U) Duarte won the 2/19 Colorado Party elections by a
bigger margin than anyone predicted, including pollsters and
even his own supporters. Department by Department, he
consistently outperformed ODD, sometimes, by more than double
the number of votes. While his victory in the interior of
the country was expected, he also won in Asuncion and Central
Department, places that had been considered ODD strongholds.
While some in ODD's camp attribute his victory to fraud, few
believe Duarte could have pulled off a victory of these
proportions by virtue of fraud. Instead his team used the
party's machinery and the state's finances to bring out
voters to support both Duarte and his "list" in significant
numbers. At the end of the day, of the 1.5 million eligible
Colorado voters, 47.7 percent, or 725,000, actually voted.


3. (U) On the national ticket, Duarte's list won 24 seats
on the Colorado Party's Executive Board, while ODD's list won
11 seats, with Alfredo "Goli" Stroessner assuming a place at
the table. The list of former Senator Lilian Samaniego won a
mere 2 seats and Candido Aguilera's list received one. The
remaining 52 seats will be held by local candidates. It is
clear Duarte's team will command an overwhelming majority.

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What Does It All Mean?
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4. (U) There is much speculation about what a victory of
these proportions means. Clearly, Duarte's supporters can
assert a firmer grip over the party's machinery,
strengthening his own hand significantly within the Party.
It reaffirms his status as the single most important
political figure within the Party. Some commentators in the
press are suggesting it heralds the end of "stronismo" and
even "arganismo" (named after the founder of the most
important faction of the Colorado Party, in which NDF got his
start),and the opening of the new era of "nicanorismo."
They note that imprisoned coup plotter Lino Oviedo's call for
his supporterQwithin the Colorado Party to reject Duarte
fell flat.


5. (U) For now, Duarte continues to indicate he intends to
test his claim to exercise the party presidency with the
Supreme Court. Should the Court rule he cannot remain Party
President, he will need to decide who will fill in behind
him. His Minister for Public Works Jose Alderete still
enjoys the upper hand as the first name on the Colorado Party
list and a lifelong friend of Duarte.


6. (C) A key question is whether NDF uses this victory to
cut back on his reliance on the Colorado's old school party
players epitomized by Sen. Juan Carlos Galaverna. Widely
perceived as an effective operator behind the scenes crafting
political strategy, raising funds, and securing the deals he
needs to move issues, Galaverna also enjoys a reputation as
one of the country's most corrupt politicians, damaging
Duarte's credentials as someone committed to turning the page
on corruption in Paraguay. It remains to be seen whether
Duarte will feel emboldened enough to reduce Galaverna's
power or whether he will still feel beholden to Galaverna for
his role in crafting a strategy that delivered Duarte a major

victory, or rely on him for his reelection strategy.


7. (SBU) We would like to see Duarte use this victory as a
mandate to reembrace a reform agenda, largely lost in the
past months of campaign. In recent weeks, Duarte has made
welcome sounds articulating support on key issues including
money laundering legislation. We will press him to deliver
when it comes time for the Senate to vote. The overarching
concern, however, is that Duarte will use his victory
primarily to launch a campaign to pursue an amendment to the
Constitution to allow for his reelection. He needs
two-thirds of both House of Congress to call a Constituent
Assembly which by definition means he'll need to court votes
from the opposition. Currently, the votes are not there with
all of the major opposition parties insisting they are
opposed to reelection. In his first remarks upon his
election as Party President, Duarte left no doubt he inteads
to pursue reelection.

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Comment: Duarte Strengthened, But To What End?
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8. (C) The 2/19 elections represented in many ways a dress
rehearsal for the 2008 Presidential elections. Duarte wanted
to secure his stature as the single most important player on
the political scene in Paraguay and establish a viable basis
upon which to bid for his reelection. His prospects on the
latter score remain long but not insurmountable by our
accounting. Meanwhile, several candidates, including
Vice-President Castiglioni, and Alderete, are poised to make
a bid should Duarte prove unable to run. In the past, Duarte
has told us that he would back Castiglioni should he not be
availed the opportunity to pursue reelection. Castiglioni,
however, almost disappeared from the political scene over the
last several months, contributing little to Duarte's recent
election victory. Opinions differ as to whether NDF was
upset with his VP or merely kept him out of the fray for
tactical reasons. It would also be too early to dismiss the
long-term prospects of "Goli" Stroessner or Lino Oviedo, as
much can happen over the course of two years to change
Paraguay's electoral dynamics. In the meantime, our
objective will be to refocus Duarte on the reform agenda
Paraguay so desperately needs to move toward becoming a
"serious" country based on MCA principles. While the
challenges facing Duarte and Paraguay remain daunting, he has
strong political winds at his back.
CASON