Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ASUNCION1279
2006-12-29 19:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Asuncion
Cable title:  

PRIEST'S PRESIDENTIAL PROPOSITION PERTURBS

Tags:  PREL PGOV KCRM PINR PA 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASUNCION 001279 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCRM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PRIEST'S PRESIDENTIAL PROPOSITION PERTURBS
PARAGUAY'S POLITICS

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4(b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASUNCION 001279

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCRM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PRIEST'S PRESIDENTIAL PROPOSITION PERTURBS
PARAGUAY'S POLITICS

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Christmas Day official annoucement by
Fernando Lugo, a Catholic priest, that he will run for
President of Paraguay in the 2008 elections set off a
firestorm of debate within -- and without -- the political
establishment over his eligibility, potential support, and
prospects. While he has yet to articulate a well-defined
political and economic agenda, he has broadly committed
himself to the fight against corruption and to building a
just and equitable society. To maintain his current lead in
the public opinion polls, however, he will need to: marry
support from his natural constituency among long
disenfranchised elements (principally from the left) with the
established political opposition parties; draw support from
disaffected Colorado Party members; and, hold up under
withering fire from the Colorado political machine.


2. (C) Consolidating the support of the disparate opposition
parties will likely pose Lugo his greatest challenge, as each
has its own pre-candidate(s) with presidential ambitions.
Colorado Party leaders have already stepped up attacks on
Lugo's character and credibility, where he does have some
vulnerabilities. The Vatican's admonition against
resignation of his pastoral duties also stirs the domestic
controversy relating to a constitutional bar against any
cleric assuming Paraguayan elected office. The coming year
promises to be tumultuous as the political establishment
wrangles with how to deal with -- whether to follow, reject
or otherwise attempt to absorb -- this newcomer. END SUMMARY.

LUGO LAUNCHES CANDIDACY ON CHRISTMAS
====================================

3. (U) Monsignor Fernando Armindo Lugo Mendez, S.V.D.,
officially declared his candidacy for the Presidency of
Paraguay on December 25 in front of his parent's home in
Encarnacion. He had long been rumored a potential 2008
presidential candidate, particularly after he led the
opposition in a large March demonstration against the

President's maneuver to win simultaneous appointment as the
Colorado Party's President. Prior to his emergence then with
a more mainstream message condemning corruption, Lugo had
participated and led a number of countryside peasant
demonstrations that often produced road blockages and land
invasions. (NOTE: Lugo was ordained the bishop of San Pedro
in 1994, a position he resigned in January 2005. San Pedro,
one of the poorest of Paraguay's agricultural areas, has been
long neglected by the Colorados and historically a wellspring
of opposition politicians. END NOTE.) In announcing his
political candidacy, Lugo steered away from articulating a
formal platform and refused to cast his message in
ideological terms, instead committing himself to building a
more just and equitable society. He rejected looking to
either Bolivia or Venezuela as models for Paraguay,
suggesting Paraguay needed to chart its own course and
appealing for the support of diverse, disparate segments of
Paraguayan society and political structure.

BUILDING A BIG, BIG TENT
========================

4. (U) Fernando Lugo has served as the symbolic leader of a
coalition of political parties and other organizations that
produced the March demonstration and as the uniting force
behind the opposition's campaign against the President over
the last nine months. But Paraguay's elections have
historically been driven by party politics and allegiances.
Lugo recognizes this and has worked hard to build up
credibility and support, particularly from political party
opposition leaders naturally distrustful of someone outside
their structures.


5. (C) Lugo, however, fed some of the suspicions of
opposition party leaders, particularly those from the
center-right, when his supporters from the left announced
December 17 creation of a new movement named "Tekojoja," the
guarani word for "equality." This coalition comprised of
labor unions, peasant groups, and leftist political parties,
including members of the militant leftist party Free
Fatherland (Patria Libre) which was tied to the Cecelia Cubas
kidnapping, presented a petition with 100,000 signatures
supporting Lugo's candidacy. Notwithstanding Lugo's efforts
to moderate his political discourse over the last year, many
regard this group as representative of his natural leftist

ASUNCION 00001279 002 OF 004


tendencies. Lugo's next-day claim to the DCM that he was
taken by surprise with the creation of this group and was not
aware that some of its leaders hailed from Patria Libre come
off as disingenuous.


6. (U) Separately, Lugo's brother, Pompeyo Lugo, a
dissident from the ruling Colorado Party, announced December
27 creation of yet another movement, Paraguay Posible, made
up of Colorados, businessmen, and other segments more
traditionally associated with conservative politics. Many
consider the creation of this group as an attempt to appease
sensitivities spun up over the creation of Tekojoja. This
group could serve the medium for seeking out the support of
Colorado Party members that make up the majority of the
registered electorate. (NOTE: The Lugo family has a long and
respected tradition of Colorado Party activism. Msgr. Lugo's
grandfather was a conservative Minister of Treasury in the
post-war era. His father was reportedly repeaetdly jailed as
a Colordado dissident during the Stroessner dictatorship.
END NOTE.)


CAN THE TENT ACCOMODATE OTHER PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS?
============================================= ========

7. (C) Lugo's principle challenge will lie in keeping all
of these disparate groups united behind his candidacy. Given
his own leftist roots and the lack of another viable
alternative, his supporters from within the movement Tekojoja
promise to be the most loyal. Meanwhile, support from the
coalition of opposition parties is fragile. Each of the
major political parties ) the Liberals, the Free Fatherland
Party (PPQ),and the National Union of Ethical Citizens Party
(UNACE) - has its own major figures with presidential
aspirations. It is just this opposition disunity (helped
along by more than a smattering of financial grease) that has
allowed the Colorados to divide and rule for six
uninterrupted decades.

o LIBERALS: Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli and Governor of
Central Department Federico Franco have both announced their
own candidacies. Franco has signaled a readiness to cede to
Lugo given the broad support he has been able to attract.
Mateo, however, headstrong and actively campaigning for over
a year now, will prove very resistant to giving way to this
newcomer whom he regards as ill-prepared to govern. Mateo
could prove a potentially divisive force within the
opposition should he decide to remain a candidate or even
just withhold support for Lugo.

o PATRIA QUERIDA (PPQ): leader Pedro Fadul, who ran for
President in 2003 and still has strong presidential
ambitions, continues to signal his readiness to cede to Lugo
as potentially the opposition's only hope for ending 60 years
of Colorado rule.

o UNACE: Enrique Gonzalez Quintana (EGQ),the current
President of Congress, holds out hope he will be able to
spring a political or legal deal that would win the release
of imprisoned coup leader General Lino Oviedo, so that he
could run in the 2008 elections. EGQ conveyed to Pol Chief
December 21 concerns about Lugo's leftist tendencies. At the
same time, he maintained Lugo and Oviedo had been in contact
and even discussed a potential union on a presidential
ticket. (NOTE: Oviedo is only two years into a 10-year
sentence. It presently remains difficult envisioning the
Colorado-controlled Supreme Court allowing for his release.
A separate appeal of his trial before an extraordinary
military tribunal (he was retired when tried),however, is
currently before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.
Lugo's legal advisor, Rafael Saguier, told Pol Chief Lugo is
not interested in Oviedo as a running mate and was looking
instead at identifying a women to run with him. Lugo and
Oviedo have typically been running one and two, respectively,
in public opinion polls on whether elections were held today.
END NOTE.)


8. (C) While party leaders publicly welcome Lugo's
candidacy and PPQ and UNACE along with other opposition
leaders have committed themselves to a united front, the
coalition has yet to coalesce -- much less embrace a
mechanism for deciding on a common presidential candidate and
candidates for Congress and lesser positions. Three options
are presently under consideration: 1) each party holds a

ASUNCION 00001279 003 OF 004


primary, the winners of which face off against each other; 2)
all candidates face off against each other in one open
election; or 3) party leaders agree amongst themselves on a
single slate of candidates. Lugo legal advisor Rafael
Saguier signaled a preference for the latter. He appreciates
concerns about Lugo's leftist tendencies. However, he also
maintains the opposition parties recognize Lugo represents
their best chance at throwing out the Colorados. He posits
they will eventually agree to back Lugo for President
provided they run their own party candidates for Congress
where they will command the majority and serve as a check on
any misguided tendencies on his part. For his part, Lugo
spoke to PolChief and DCM of his concerns about not being
able to govern were he elected without any Congressional
supporters to call his own, a la Correa of Ecuador.

COLORADOS FEELING THE HEAT -- AND TURNING IT ON
============================================= ==

9. (C) In one early December poll, Lugo drew the support of
24 percent of voters compared with 21 percent for President
Duarte. Duarte has given himself until March to win the
support he needs within Congress to pursue an amendment to
the Constitution to allow him to run for reelection. Slowly,
he is coming to the realization that prospects are long for
that to happen. Other presidential aspirants within the
Colorado Party are keen to resolve this issue so they can
launch their own campaign.


10. (C) Vice-President Castiglioni hopes to win his Party's
endorsement as its candidate in the 2008 elections but he has
not gained President Duarte's formal backing yet, though they
have begun a marked increase in their joint public
appearances. In an uncharacteristically strident tone,
Castiglioni launched an attack on Lugo December 27,
describing the priest's bid for the Presidency as
unconstitutional and calling attention to his association
with militant leftists from Patria Libre. Duarte signaled
conflicting sentiments about Lugo's candidacy, welcoming it
on the one hand for the prospect it offers to reinvigorate
political debate but describing Lugo on the other hand as
"Lucifer," and a failed cleric with no future in politics.
Colorado Party king maker Sen. Galaverna described Lugo as a
liar and crazy. Lugo can and should expect Colorado attacks
to sharpen should he continue to poll competitively with the
Colorados.

LUGO LEAVES THE CHURCH. OR DOES HE?
===================================

11. (U) Paraguay's 1992 Constitution bars "ministers from
any religion" from running for President. To overcome that
restriction, Lugo announced the renunciation of his
priesthood December 21. Anticipating this announcement, the
Vatican's Prefect of the Congregation of Bishops, Giovanni
Battista Re, wrote an official letter to Lugo December 20,
which was promptly made public. It advised that as a bishop
(Lugo's current official title is Bishop Emeritus) he is
barred against running for political office and warning him
that if he proceeds he faces sanctions, including the loss of
his right to practice the sacraments and, in the most extreme
case, excommunication. The threat regarding his practicing
the sacraments as a priest rings rather hollow, as Lugo
voluntarily gave up this right by virtue of his renunciation.
Excommunication, of course, would be another matter and much
more serious. However, Church officials have also suggested
that Lugo cannot renounce his status as a bishop, essentially
maintaining that, according to Catholic Church doctrine, once
ordained a bishop by the Church, one is bishop for life.
Lugo's supporters have suggested his personal renunciation
meets the constitutional bar against ministers running for
President. Detractors, on the other hand, argue otherwise
leaving open the possibility for a Constitutional challenge.


12. (C) The Paraguayan Episcopal Conference (CEP),the
governing body for the Catholic Church hierarchy in Paraguay,
has assumed a higher profile in recent years, condemning
corruption and the government's failure to address poverty.
The CEP has been somewhat more ambiguous to date on its views
on Lugo and his potential candidacy. Privately, some of its
key members, including Archbishop Cuquejo of Asuncion, have
signaled to us suspicion of Lugo and support for
Vice-President Luis Castiglioni, a devout Catholic and member
of Opus Dei. At the same time, the CEP has issued public
statements conveying support for Lugo as one of its own.

ASUNCION 00001279 004 OF 004


Undoubtedly, left-right tensions exist within the CEP, even
as it attempts to focus on the non-partisan needs of the
faithful. ith the Vatican having taken an unambiguous stance
opposed to Lugo's candidacy, the CEP is left with little
choice but to toe the same line. No doubt, the CEP will seek
to avoid entering into an extended public debate over this
issue. It remains to be seen to what extent the Church's
position on this issue will impact voting tendencies in this
overwhelmingly Catholic country.

COMMENT
=======

13. (C) COMMENT: Lugo's candidacy injects a significant
measure of suspense and controversy into traditionally
sterile campaigns for political office in Paraguay.
Opponents are quick to cast Lugo as the next Chavez or
Morales. Given Paraguay's conservative tradition and Lugo's
reliance on opposition political party support, though, he
will seek to pitch a relatively moderate platform. In the
end, he could be hardpressed to hold together the disparate
interests of opposition political parties not accustomed to
supporting candidates from other parties. The Colorados have
their own work cut out for them, identifying a candidate the
opposition will not single out as a poster child for
corruption. (By that measure, Lugo would be wise to adopt
President Duarte's statement that "Lugo is a threat to the
status quo" as his own rallying cry.) The Colorado strategy,
in the meantime, will likely continue to center on drawing
attention to Lugo's own defects. In the weeks and months
ahead both sides will need to declare what they stand for and
square their past records with their stated objectives )
something that could prove a challenge for all involved. END
COMMENT.

BIO NOTE
========

14. (U) BIO NOTE: Fernando Lugo was born in Paraguay on 30
May 1949, into a well-known Colorado Party family. He was
ordained a priest in the Society of the Divine Word in August

1977. Septel will report in detail on his past and attempt
to separate fact from fiction regarding some of the many
swirling accusations being made against him.
CASON