PARAGUAY: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION IS BACK; DUARTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001191

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD; NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2026
TAGS: PGOV MARR SNAR PINS PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION IS BACK; DUARTE
APPOINTS NEW MILITARY LEADERSHIP

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons: 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of the Colorado Party's routing
of the opposition in November 19 municipal elections,
President Duarte is laying the groundwork for his reelection
in 2008. Regardless of what combination of Congressional
approval, Constituent Assembly, and/or national referendum is
ultimately pursued, Duarte will be hard-pressed to obtain the
necessary votes in what may prove his last chance to secure
approval for his reelection bid.


2. (C) In a subsequent move to deny the opposition
politicians continued leverage over him, the President shook
up the police and military command structures November 26.
General Bernardino Soto Estigarribia, Paraguay's new
Commander of the Armed Forces, has a good reputation for
integrity and vision. We expect Soto will seek to maintain
strong military cooperation with the U.S. and offers better
prospects for embracing necessary reform. While the
opposition has applauded the change (they had blocked
military promotions for one year),it is not apparent it will
improve the President's prospects for winning votes in
Congress. Police Commissioner Aristides Cabral, long-linked
to drug trafficking has reached his 30-year limit and will
pass into retirement. END SUMMARY.

Reelection: Duarte's Last Stand ... For Now


3. (C) The President has proven himself obsessed with
pursuing reelection over the last year and a half. While he
had toned down his rhetoric on the issue over the last month,
the Colorado Party's major victory in November 19 municipal
elections rekindled his hopes about his reelection prospects.
Colorado Senator Rachid told Pol Chief November 22 that the
President looked to introduce this issue to Congress before
December 8. Colorado leaders are reportedly huddling
November 30 with a view to developing a strategy for winning
necessary support, including rallying support of those
Congressmen within the Colorado Party ambivalent about the
President's reelection ambitions.


4. (U) Paraguay's 1992 Constitution limits the President to
one term. Duarte has signaled he will seek an amendment to
the Constitution that would allow a sitting or former
president to pursue reelection. An amendment to the
Constitution requires a simple majority in both houses of
Congress to win approval. Paraguay has never amended its
constitution to date.


5. (C) Based on its interpretation the amendment process
only applies in the case of relatively minor changes to the
Constitution, the opposition is insistent changing the
Constitution to allow for reelection can only done in the
context of a Constituent Assembly. This is a much more
laborious process requiring two-thirds support in both houses
of Congress and the election of members to an assembly that
could potentially debate numerous changes to the Constitution
over several months. The election for this assembly cannot
be held within six months of another election which leaves
very little time for this option. The prospects the
President can rally the necessary votes continue to be long
as the opposition commands a majority in the Senate and
remains strongly opposed to the president's reelection
desires. Even in the House of Deputies where the Colorados
enjoy a razor thin majority -- and where his supporters say
they would likely introduce a measure on reelection -- a
faction of Colorados had signaled its opposition to
reelection.


6. (C) Justice Minister Derlis Cespedes told DCM November
24 that the President intended to reform the Constitution via
Congress and then take that approval to the public via a
national referendum. Only then, he said would the President
vie for the Colorado Party nomination and then run for
reelection. He suggested House and Senate approval plus a
public referendum would have to be obtained by June 2007 --
which he thought was possible.

Changing the Security Hierarchy


7. (C) With the municipal elections won, and the announcement
of re-election plans out, the President then moved quickly to
remove a major political irritant in his relations with the
Congress. Duarte addressed long-standing grievances of the
opposition with the military, by naming new leaders to both
the Armed Forces and the National Police. Commander of the

Armed Forces General Jose Key Kanazawa -- distinguished for
his loyalty to the President and not his leadership of or
vision for the military -- was relieved of duty and replaced
with Brigadier General Bernardino Soto Estigarribia, who is
well respected among his peers. (NOTE: Kanazawa was targeted
for removal by the opposition for a December 2005 letter
produced by the Armed Forces criticizing the Congress for
delays in the promotion process and issuing a veiled threat
about its response. END NOTE). Soto has been on several
exchange programs with the U.S. military, including the
School of the Americas. Post views him as friendly to the
U.S. offering improved prospects for overdue military reform.



8. (C) Separately, Brigadier General Juan Bautista Gomez
replaces Brigadier General Cecilio Perez Bordon as Commander
of the Army as the most significant amongst a number of other
changes in the military hierarchy. Pedro Mendez Franco (a
recipient of U.S. training) replaces Simon Bogado as Police
Sub-Commander. Police Commissioner Aristides Cabral,
long-linked to illicit drug traffickers, reached his 30-year
limit and will finally pass into retirement. Cabral had
survived his failure to win promotion last year when he was
named Police Chief of Villa Hayes. Failing to win promotion
to be either Commander or Sub-Commander of the Police this
year, he no longer has a future within the police structure.
Promotions in the ranks of the military and the police should
be announced in the coming weeks. It is expected the
Congress will lift its one year hold on the promotions.


9. (C) COMMENT: In an effort to extend his political life,
Duarte has spent an inordinate amount of time campaigning.
The Colorados scored a big victory in the November 19
municipal elections but that will do little to sway the
opposition within Congress, which holds the decision on
reelection within its hands. Duarte's decision to replace
the Commander of the Armed Forces is a positive development
in its own right but it also likely contributes little to
securing wider opposition support for reelection. It simply
reduces the opposition's political leverage and ammo supply.
The remaining weeks of this year's legislative session may
prove Duarte's last viable hope to pursue his reelection bid;
by the time Congress reconvenes in March, other Colorados,
including the Vice-President, will want to start launching
their own campaigns. END COMMENT.
CASON