Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ASUNCION1077
2006-10-26 14:03:00
SECRET
Embassy Asuncion
Cable title:  

PARAGUAY: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC CONCERN OVER BOLIVIA

Tags:  PREL PBTS PGOV PINS PNAT MASS MCAP PA BO VE 
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VZCZCXYZ0020
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAC #1077/01 2991403
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 261403Z OCT 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4938
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
S E C R E T ASUNCION 001077 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2026
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV PINS PNAT MASS MCAP PA BO VE
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC CONCERN OVER BOLIVIA
RISE

REF: A. ASUNCION 0992


B. ASUNCION 1000

C. ASUNCION 1020

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; Reasons: 1.4(b),(d).

S E C R E T ASUNCION 001077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2026
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV PINS PNAT MASS MCAP PA BO VE
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC CONCERN OVER BOLIVIA
RISE

REF: A. ASUNCION 0992


B. ASUNCION 1000

C. ASUNCION 1020

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; Reasons: 1.4(b),(d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: Bolivian Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca
visited Paraguay October 19-21 to address concerns about
Bolivia's military agreement with Venezuela to build new
military bases and increase weapons sales. The Duarte
Administration maintains it is satisfied with the Bolivian
explanation, but the Paraguayan press, Congress and military
have signaled lingering suspicions. While Duarte recently
decided to reject immunities for U.S. military exercises some
opinion makers inside and outside the government are arguing
for more ties to the U.S. and advocate Paraguay taking more
measures to strengthen its underfunded military force. END
SUMMARY).

BOLIVIAN LEADERS DISCUSS AGREEMENT


2. (U) Bolivian FM Choquehuanca visited Paraguay October
19-21 at the behest of the Paraguayan Government to address
its concerns about the announced September 19 agreement on
military cooperation that Bolivia signed with Venezuela to
construct three new military bases and increase military
hardware sales. Choquehuanca assured Paraguayan officials
that Bolivia's agreement with Venezuela is driven primarily
by commercial interests. He accused the United States of
fomenting suspicion about the Bolivian and the Venezuelan
arms agreement as a way to prompt Paraguayan fears. He
publicly allowed, however, the agreement also bolsters his
government's defenses against domestic unrest.


3. (U) President Duarte and FM Ramirez, with whom
Choquehuanca both met privately, publicly stated that they
were satisfied with the explanation they received. Ramirez
said Choquehuanca "gave assurances that there is no plan to
build military base on Paraguay's border with Bolivia." He

also noted that through united dialogue, the two nations
would continue discussing important and sensitive issues
central to the bilateral relationship. President Duarte, for
his part, announced he planned to meet Bolivian President
Morales on December 8 in Cochabamba during the Summit of
South American Presidents. (NOTE: FM Ramirez announced
October 15 that Paraguay and Bolivia will establish two new
Consulates in the border region to expedite trade and tourism
between the two countries. END NOTE).


4. (U) Paraguay Defense Minister, Roberto Gonzalez, also
stated that the Bolivian and Venezuelan agreement is very
broad and does not pose a threat to Paraguay. Nevertheless,
Gonzalez plans to meet with his Bolivian counterpart Walker
San Miguel October 26-28 to continue talks regarding the arms
agreement and to visit the sites where Bolivia will build two
of its new bases.

MILITARY COMMANDERS REMAIN SUSPICIOUS


5. (S) Several senior Paraguayan military officials have told
us that they are troubled by Bolivia's agreement with
Venezuela on the one hand and the decision to end immunities
for U.S. exercises on the other. Brig. Gen. Bernardino Soto,
Duarte's senior military aide told DAO he was surprised that
Duarte did not extend the "A and T immunities" for U.S.
troops participating in joint exercises. Soto blamed
Paraguay's politicians for decimating the military and
blocking reform and the restructuring of the military. He
believes that Bolivia and Venezuela, in particular, are
intent on dominating the region, and regards military
confrontation as a remote possibility.


6. (U) Other former and current military officials have
similarly expressed their belief that Paraguay needs to
restructure its armed forces and build a stronger
relationship with the U.S. Retired Paraguayan Army Col.
Jorge Solis Gianni who has studied in U.S. military schools
told the media that the Armed Forces are ill-prepared to
defend the nation against foreign aggression. He insisted
that Paraguay needs to seek a military agreement with the U.S.


7. (U) Military comanders, Congressional leaders and Defense
Minister Gonzalez met October 24 to assess the contradictory
and ambiguous aspects of the Bolivian and Venezuelan arms
agreement. It was reported that some of the participants
agreed that their concern is not what the agreement says but,
"what it fails to say." Authentic Radical Liberal Party
(PLRA) Senator Carlos Ramirez Montalbetti stated that
military experts analyzed the current military situation and
expressed the need for the Armed Forces to maintain a
vigilant attitude. (NOTE: Paraguay has an annual defense
budget of USD 53 million, while Bolivia has a budget of more

than USD 130 million. The total value of the Bolivian budget
does not include the value of the new arms agreement. END
NOTE).

CONGRESS NOT SATISFIED WITH BOLIVIAN EXPLANATIONS


8. (U) Senators from the ruling Colorado Party and the
opposition alike have signaled concerns about Bolivia's
relationship with Venezuela. Colorado Senator Blas Riquelme
said that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is arming Bolivia
and that the Paraguayan Government made a mistake in not
renewing its agreement extending immunity to U.S. soldiers.
He further charged that Chavez "has contempt for democracy,
does not respect private property, and is a potential threat
to the Americans." Senator Enrique Gonzalez Quintana, of the
opposition party UNACE and President of the Senate, made
clear his own concerns when he said October 15 that "Bolivia
has never abandoned its intention of invading the Chaco and
thus it is worrisome for the Duarte Administration to ignore
the Bolivian and Venezuelan arms agreement." He argued that
Paraguay should pursue a firmer stance in its foreign policy
and watch Bolivia more closely. Otherwise, Quintana warned,
history could repeat itself (referring to Paraguay's war with
Bolivia in the 1930's).


9. (U) Quintana also blasted the Duarte Administration for
rejecting the military cooperation agreement with the U.S.
over the extension of "immunities" and said, "this decision
leaves us completely unprotected." He conceded that there
are disagreements with U.S. policy but emphasized the U.S.
military has technical abilities that could help train the
Paraguayan military to defend its borders. Several other
members of Congress, including Senator Miguel Saguier (PLRA),
President of the Senate Commission on Constitutional Affairs
and Defense, have criticized the Duarte Administration for
not continuing with the agreement and believe that Bolivia
and Venezuela are "intent on pushing us around." (ref. A)
Saguier also noted that the Bolivian Foreign and Defense
Ministers made contradictory statements, highlighting that
one said the agreement is to combat drug trafficking while
the other said it was for development. They have also
acknowledged publicly that the military faces a deficit in
terms of equipment and training.


10. (C) COMMENT: Political and military issues have come to
dominate relations between Paraguay and Bolivia, replacing
trade as the hot topic for the time being. Although the
Bolivian FM's visit helped defuse tensions, officials within
the government and military remain skeptical of their
northern neighbor. Post is working with the MFA on an
agreement to secure protections for our exercises under the
rubric of "technical" activities. (ref. C) Meanwhile,
Paraguay's military seeks an increase in its funds and more
attention on reform in efforts to address lingering concerns
about its security posture and Bolivia's strengthened ties
with Venezuela.





CASON