PARAGUAY: CRISIS WITH BOLIVIA AVERTED, FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001000

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD, NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2026
TAGS: PINS MARR PREL PGOV PA BO VE
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: CRISIS WITH BOLIVIA AVERTED, FOR NOW

REF: ASUNCION 0992

Classified By: PolCouns James P. Merz; Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. After a quick Bolivian climb-down over
insults directed at Paraguayan President Duarte, Paraguay
accepted Bolivia's apology, standing down on its threat to
withdraw its Ambassador to Bolivia. Separately, Paraguay's
Minister of Defense described the recent border crossing of
some six Bolivian soldiers as consistent with a bilateral
executive agreement -- a view not shared by some members of
Congress. Visiting Bolivian Defense Minister insisted
Bolivia had no aggressive designs on Paraguay, maintaining
instead that other "interests" seek to foment "a conflict
that doesn't exist." While Bolivia's apology brings to a
close the immediate chapter of tensions, Paraguayan political
and military officials remain concerned about Bolivian
activities and intentions. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Paraguay's Minister of Interior Rogelio Benitez
announced September 27 that Paraguay had accepted Bolivia's
apology for the comments made by Bolivia's Interior Minister
Rafael Puente accusing Paraguay of having passed falsified
documents and calling Paraguayan President Duarte "a liar."
According to press reports, Bolivia described Puente's
statements as "lamentable and without foundation." Puente
was reportedly fired later in the day. Bolivia's apology
enabled Paraguay to stand on its threat to recall its
Ambassador from Bolivia.


3. (U) Separately, Paraguay's Minister of Defense Roberto
Gonzalez asserted that the recent border crossing of some six
Bolivian soldiers was allowed within the context of a "Guide
on Norms and Procedures" signed with Bolivia in 1999 on the
informal cross-border of movements of troops. Visiting
Bolivian Defense Minister Walker San Miguel insisted Bolivia
had no aggressive designs on Paraguay. He publicly stressed
that Bolivia is a poor country with no desire to enter into
an arms race. Instead, its plan to construct a new base
within 200 kilometers of its border with Paraguay and
purchase new weapons flowed from a desire to establish a more
"integral defense" posture accompanied by "regional
exchanges" in the areas of "defense, energy and culture."
San Miguel suggested other "interests" seek to promote
conflict between Paraguay and Bolivia. Most observers took
his reference to other "interests" as a clear allusion to the
U.S.


4. (C) Paraguay's Constitution mandates Congress must
approve of treaties for them to carry legal weight. It also
explicitly requires Senate approval for the entry of foreign
troops. According to an "aide memoire" that Ceferino Valdez,
the MFA's Undersecretary for Bilateral Affairs, shared with
PolCouns, however, the "guide" Defense Minister Gonzalez
referred to does not constitute an "international treaty" or
a "bilateral document." Rather, it is a "Procedure Manual
for the Armed Forces" that was signed during biannual
discussions between military officials from Bolivia and
Paraguay. As such, the implication is that it does need to
be ratified by Congress. (This "guide" was ratified by
Paraguayan President Macchi in 2000.)


5. (C) COMMENT: Bolivia's apology has deflated the
immediate crisis between Bolivia and Paraguay over the
Bolivian Minister's insults. Paraguay's Defense Minister
clearly sought to play down concern about Bolivia's military
intentions with his comment that the recent unannounced entry
of Bolivian troops was allowed under a guide between the two
countries. Complaints by several Paraguayan military
officials to Emboffs, however, would suggest they do not
share the Defense Minister's sanguine view on this issue.
They maintain the guide to which the Defense Minister refers
requires 48 hours advance notice. Some experts have also
maintained the agreement requires Congressional approval. It
has not escaped our attention that while Paraguay allows
Bolivians troops to cross the border unannounced on the basis
of a "guide" not approved by Congress, it requires Congress
to approve the entry of all U.S. troops participating in
military exercises. We will be pointing out this apparent
double standard as we press the GOP to move ahead on our
agreement allowing for the military exercises and MEDRETES
with the U.S. in 2007. END COMMENT
FITZPATRICK