CHINA - KAZAKHSTAN: WILL WATER DAMPEN THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000934

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (O'MARA)
DEPARTMENT FOR OES/ETC
DEPARTMENT FOR OES/PCI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV PGOV PREL KZ
SUBJECT: CHINA - KAZAKHSTAN: WILL WATER DAMPEN THE
RELATIONSHIP?



1. (SBU) Summary: Kazakhstan, already coping with its
shrinking water sources, now faces a new challenge as a
result of western China's rapid development. Two of
Kazakhstan's primary water sources, the Ili and Irtysh
rivers, begin in China, and China has already admitted to the
Kazakhstanis that some pollution of the rivers is inevitable.
Moreover, the two countries have not reached an agreement on
water use. One Kazakhstani official stated publicly that
"China is reluctant to discuss strategic water use issues
with Kazakhstan." This reluctance was reaffirmed during
President Nazarbayev's recent trip to China, with the two
sides again failing to reach an agreement on the use and
protection of transboundary water resources. End Summary

Blessed with Oil, but Not Water
--------------


2. (U) Kazakhstan's water resources, never ample, continue to
shrink. In the last five decades, water resources have
decreased by 16.6%, from 120 billion cubic meters of
available water in the 1950s to not more than 100 billion
cubic meters today. Poor water management practices and
wasteful internal consumption have contributed to the
problem, but Kazakhstan is also heavily dependent on
effective regional cooperation - 50% of its water resources
begin outside the country's borders.


3. (SBU) While Kazakhstan has in recent years focused
primarily on productive management of the Syr Darya basin,
shared with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, two of
Kazakhstan's major water sources, the Ili and Irtysh Rivers,
originate in China. The Ili River provides Lake Balkhash,
the 15th largest lake in the world, with 80% of its water.
The Irtysh River supplies a number of lakes and the
Irtysh-Karaganda Canal. Anatoliy Ryabtsev, Chairman of
Kazakhstan's Committee on Water Resources, told ESTH Officer
that China's use of the Irtysh adheres to international norms
but admitted that Kazakhstan lacks full information on
China's use of the Ili.

Nazarbayev Returns Home Empty-Handed on Water-Sharing
-------------- ---


4. (SBU) Kazakhstan has failed to achieve an agreement on
water-sharing with China, and Kazakhstani officials have not
hidden their displeasure in public statements. Ryabtsev
stated on Kazakhstani television on December 4 that "China
consumes more and more water as its economy grows. The amount
of industrial pollutants discharged into the river by China
has also increased. They keep violating our requirements."
Deputy Water Chairman Amirkhan Kenshimov, speaking at a UNDP
Human Development Report presentation on November 16,
complained that "China is reluctant to discuss strategic
water use issues with Kazakhstan."


5. (SBU) In a recent meeting with ESTH Officer, Ryabtsev
reported that Kazakhstan - China water cooperation is
improving. The two sides have already concluded three
water-related agreements on information sharing and water
quality, he said. Even achieving a dialogue with China is a
great achievement, Ryabtsev believes.


6. (SBU) Nevertheless, Ryabtsev admitted to ESTH Officer that
his strong statement on Kazakhstani television accurately
reflects his views. Kazakhstan is particularly worried about
the Ili, he said, with public reports that China intends to
divert more water from the river to develop its oil industry.
Moreover, Kazakhstan has information that China has started
to build a new water use facility for the Ili. The Chinese
have already admitted to Kazakhstan that the country's
industrial growth is surpassing its ability to prevent the
Ili's pollution. Ryabtsev told ESTH Officer that Kazakhstan
will be "firm and decisive" on water-sharing, and that China
"fears sanctions" by Kazakhstan. Thus far, he added, the
Chinese, rather than the Kazakhstanis, have made concessions
on water issues.


7. (SBU) Ryabtsev believes that the water use question must
be resolved at the highest level. According to press
reports, President Nazarbayev raised the issue during his
December 19-21 visit to Beijing. Although agreements were
signed on the exchange of hydrological information and
scientific and research cooperation on transboundary rivers,

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the two sides again failed to reach accord on transboundary
water use. Referring to this failure, Nazarbayev said that
"we cannot say that Kazakhstani-Chinese cooperation is
developing in a completely positive way."


8. (SBU) Comment: While China-Kazakhstan relations remain
healthy, China's growing thirst for natural resources is a
potential cause of discord. In recent months, Kazakhstani
politicians and media have criticized China's
"overparticipation" in Kazakhstan's oil and gas sector.
Transboundary water use is also of great concern, with
Kazakhstan's existing vulnerabilities likely to worsen if
China overuses the Ili and Irtysh rivers. Kazakhstan may use
the levers it has with China - access to energy and trade
routes - if pushed on the water issue. End comment.
MILAS