KAZAKHSTAN: ANOTHER OPPOSITION LEADER FACES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000585

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (M. O'MARA),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELBLING)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: ANOTHER OPPOSITION LEADER FACES
CRIMINAL CHARGES


Classified By: Amb. John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: The Financial Police have launched a series
of civil and criminal charges against popular opposition
leader Bulat Abilov related to an investment fund that he
founded in the 1990s. Abilov, who faces up to ten years in
prison, believes that the prosecution is politically
motivated. He alleges that members of President Nazarbayev's
inner circle view him as a threat and are orchestrating the
case to remove him from the political arena. Abilov claims
that presidential insider Bulat Utemuratov informed him that
one of Abilov's enemies even told President Nazarbayev that
Abilov had asked Vice President Cheney to finance a
"revolution" in Kazakhstan. End summary.

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Criminal Charges with Possible Ten Year Sentence
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2. (SBU) Opposition activist Bulat Abilov, co-chairman of the
True Ak Zhol party, is facing up to ten years in prison on
criminal charges related to an investment fund he created in
the mid-1990s. The Financial Police have charged Abilov and
two associates in the Butya-Kapital investment fund, Baurzhan
Karabekov and Ualikhan Bekbosyn, with large-scale
misappropriation and embezzlement, inflicting damages, tax
evasion, and abuse of power by a manager of a commercial
organization. The charges relate to business activities from
1996-1998 and carry a maximum sentence of ten years.


3. (C) The criminal trial against Abilov, Karabekov, and
Bekbosyn is scheduled to begin on November 22 in the
Almalinskiy district court of Almaty. In a November 14
conversation with Pol-Econ Chief, Abilov said that he planned
to do everything possible to delay the proceedings. He had
just replaced his legal team and would move for a one-month
continuance so that the new lawyers can familiarize
themselves with the case. Abilov explained that President
Nazarbayev is widely expected to announce sweeping political
reforms in a December address to the Democratization
Commission. Such a move would presumably lead to a softening
of the authorities' efforts to constrain the opposition,
Abilov said, and create a more favorable environment for the
trial.

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Charges Politically Motivated?
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4. (SBU) In a related civil trial on November 2, Karabekov
argued that the statute of limitations had long expired. He
stated that when the Butya-Kapital fund was liquidated in
December 2004, 1.2 billion tenge ($9.4 million) was
distributed to its 500,000 shareholders, making it the only
one of the 167 funds set up to privatize state assets to pay
any money to its shareholders. After the Almaty City Court
rejected Karabekov's appeal, his lawyer alleged in a
television interview that the Financial Police had put
together the case in retaliation for Bulat Abilov's political
activities. The lawyer said that the Financial Police had
called numerous Butya-Kapital shareholders around the country
to inform them of the alleged violations and encourage them
to file a lawsuit; the seven individuals who agreed to do so
had never appeared in court or asked for financial
compensation. The authorities were seeking a ruling to use
as a precedent in upcoming criminal proceedings, he alleged.


5. (C) When asked why the authorities were focusing on him,
rather than other opposition leaders who were even more
outspoken, Abilov told Pol-Econ Chief that many in
Nazarbayev's inner circle saw him as a threat because of his
popularity with the public, the strong support he receives
from major businesses, his ability to unite disparate forces
within the opposition, and his financial wherewithal. Abilov
said that he had personally financed Zharmakhan Tuyakbay's
2005 presidential campaign, and had co-financed the
opposition's 2004 parliamentary campaign with
Kazkommertsbank. (Note: In addition to the factors Abilov
mentioned, his frequent intemperate public statements have
undoubtedly attracted unfavorable attention from Astana.)

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Abilov Alleges High-Level Campaign to Discredit Him
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6. (C) Someone in Nazarbayev's inner circle was now using the
Financial Police to try to remove him from the political
arena, Abilov alleged. He claimed that key Presidential

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Administration figure Bulat Utemuratov had informed him that
someone in a power ministry (i.e. the Procuracy, the KNB, or
the MVD) had told Nazarbayev that during Vice President
Cheney's May 6 breakfast with members of the opposition,
Abilov had asked for funding to "organize a revolution" and
unseat Nazarbayev. Abilov said that Nazarbayev had repeated
the allegation to Tuyakbay during a September 22 meeting.
(Note: Abilov made no such request during the meeting with
the Vice President.)


8. (C) Abilov told Pol-Econ Chief that Nazarbayev had
personally tried to convince him to leave politics on several
occasions, offering him his choice of natural resources,
banks, or private firms as inducement. He had refused each
time. Someone in Nazarbayev's inner circle had made him a
similar offer recently, Abilov said; if he would go on
television and acknowledge the validity of the December 2005
presidential elections, the charges against him would be
dropped. Abilov was adamant that he would not betray his
principles by taking a "deal" when he had done nothing
against the president.


9. (SBU) Abilov said that he planned to visit Washington in
December, probably with Zharmakhan Tuyakbay. His goal was to
preserve contacts between the opposition and influential
thinkers in Washington, as well as to obtain visible "moral
support" during his trial. Abilov will have to obtain
permission from the court examining his case and from the
Procuracy in order to travel. Pol-Econ Chief promised to
assist with visa referrals and appointment requests at the
State Department.

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Comment
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10. (C) Comment: It is impossible to know at this stage
whether the charges against Abilov and his business
associates have any basis in fact, given that the
transactions in question took place eight to ten years ago at
a time when Kazakhstani law was rapidly changing and
frequently imprecise. The fact that Butya-Kapital was the
only investment fund known to have paid dividends to its
shareholders would seem to indicate that it was one of the
best managed of the 167 funds created to privatize state
assets, however, rather than a dishonest enterprise. Indeed,
Abilov's popularity with the Kazakhstani public is due in
part to the fact that he helped many of them profit from
their privatization vouchers. The intensity of the Financial
Police in pursuing Abilov does not therefore seem to be based
on any genuine shareholder dissatisfaction with
Butya-Kapital, but rather on political grounds. Post sees
the charges against Abilov as similar to the selective
prosecution that Galymzhan Zhakiyanov experienced in 2002.
If the authorities manage to prevent Abilov from financing
his political allies, the Kazkakhstani opposition will be
even further weakened. End comment.
ORDWAY