KAZAKHSTAN CONDUCTS LOCAL "ELECTIONS"

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000395

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN CONDUCTS LOCAL "ELECTIONS"

REF: Almaty 1095

ASTANA 00000395 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: On October 20, Kazakhstan held local elections for
30% of the country's district and city level akims (mayors/county
executives). The elections were conducted as part of the
government's program to promote democratization. As the electoral
process was tightly controlled by the government and did not involve
direct participation by the voters, the process represented at most
an incremental step toward true reform. End summary.

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THE ELECTION RULES
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2. (U) On June 6, President Nazarbayev issued a decree establishing
the election of 30% of district and city level akims for four-year
terms. The decree was prompted by recommendations of the State
Commission on Elaboration and Specification of the Program of
Democratic Reforms (Democratization Commission) (reftel). The
Central Elections Committee (CEC) thereafter scheduled the elections
for October 20, and issued a list of 49 districts and 10 cities that
would conduct elections on that date. According to CEC chairman
Onalsyn Zhumabekov, elections may be held in 2007 for the remaining
70% of district and city level akims.


3. (U) According to the rules established by the CEC, only
regional-level akims (governors) could nominate candidates for the
local akim positions. (Note: regional akims are directly appointed
by the president. End note.). However, the regional akims were
obligated to nominate at least two candidates for each position.
Candidates were required to live in the region, be at least 25 years
old, file declarations of income and property, and otherwise meet
all the requirements of a political government employee.

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THE CANDIDATES
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4. (U) From September 5-19, the regional akims nominated candidates
for the 59 positions. The candidates were then required to register
with local election commissions. Of the 148 candidates nominated by
regional akims, 142 were ultimately registered by the local election
commissions. According to the CEC, the average age of the
candidates was 48. All of the candidates had a higher education,
and the field included engineers, agrarians, veterinarians,
teachers, economists, lawyers, doctors, and other specialists. Five
of the candidates were women. 48 of the candidates were incumbent
local akims, 23 were deputy akims, 12 were lower-level government
executives in rural settlements, 45 were employees of state-owned
companies or government institutions, and 14 were from
non-governmental institutions.


5. (U) Although complete figures were not available, the vast
majority of candidates were members of President Nazarbayev's Otan
Party. The Republican Network of Independent Monitors (RNIM),a
local NGO involved in election monitoring, sent observers to a
portion of the regions conducting elections. According to RNIM, 74
of the 88 candidates in these regions were members of the Otan
Party, one was a member of the Auyl Party, and the rest were
unaffiliated. During the nomination process, Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov,
the acting chairman of the Otan Party, said that his party made
recommendations to the regional akims on the nomination of
candidates. According to Zhumagulov, regional akims heeded this
advice on at least three occasions in which the incumbent akim was
not nominated.

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THE RESULTS
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6. (U) The winners were then chosen by a vote of the appropriate
local maslikhat (Note: maslikhats are locally elected legislatures;
the last maslikhat elections were held on September 20, 2003. End
note.). Candidates needed to receive over 50% of the votes to win.
The post-registration campaign process was not widely publicized,
though candidates campaigned by holding meetings with maslikhat
members. For example, Poloff met with central election committee
officials in the western city of Atyrau and observed campaign
posters produced by candidates for one of the local akim positions.
The election committee officials informed Poloff that the candidates
held a series of public meetings with maslikhat members to discuss
issues in the community.


7. (U) Seven of the 142 candidates dropped out of the process
before election day, including three incumbent akims. Of the 45
incumbent akims who stood for election, 39 won. The RNIM and the
CEC reported that the elections were conducted without any major
procedural violations.

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ANALYSIS BY OPPOSITION LEADERS, NGOS, AND THE GOVERNMENT
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8. (SBU) Prior to the voting, opposition leaders such as Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay and Galymzhan Zhakiyanov criticized the process, and said
that the elections were not really elections at all because the
presidentially-appointed regional akims had the exclusive power to
select candidates, and the voters had no direct role to play. In a
meeting with Poloff prior to the election, OSCE Deputy Head of
Center Bjorn Halvarsson explained that the OSCE did not acknowledge
the event as an election and would give little attention to the
process, for the same reasons expressed by Tuyakbay and Zhakiyanov.
The RNIM similarly criticized the lack of real alternatives for
voters and the inability of citizens to nominate themselves for
office.


9. (U) Noted political analyst Dosym Satpayev asserted in a recent
interview in Respublika weekly that everybody in and outside of
Kazakhstan understands that the elections were an imitation of real
reform, and warned that the imitation of democratic and political
reforms was in danger of becoming the national strategy.


10. (U) The government defended the process as offering a smooth and
gradual transition to a system of local self-government. President
Nazarbayev, speaking at the third meeting of the Democratization
Commission, said that "for the mechanism of direct elections at that
level to work, appropriate conditions should be developed. Among
those are the political culture and maturity of the society. In
election of akims, we should exercise a balanced approach. We
should not lose control over the government in the regions." In the
months prior to the elections, officials such as CEC chairman
Zhumabekov, acting Otan Party chairman Zhumagulov, and others joined
in defending the process. Among other things, they noted that
maslikhat members are in the best position to select a new akim
because they are very familiar with the issues in their districts.
In addition, the elections would serve as a step toward democratic
reform because they increased the power of the directly-elected
maslikhats.

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COMMENT
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11. (SBU) Comment: The October 20 selection process for regional
leaders was not an election in the truest sense of the word. The
restrictive election procedures allowed for little discretion by the
maslikhats, and none by the voters, and was dominated by President
Nazarbayev's Otan Party. The elections therefore did not represent
significant progress toward democratic reform or local
self-government. At the most, they signify a small increase in the
importance of the directly-elected maslikhats and may have served to
increase public debate about the proper role of voters in choosing
their leaders. End comment.