PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV CONVENES DEMOCRATIZATION COMMISSION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000022

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELBLING),AND
DRL/CRA (E. RAMBORGER)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV KZ ZK
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV CONVENES DEMOCRATIZATION COMMISSION

REF: ALMATY 1095


1. (U) SUMMARY: On March 24, President Nazarbayev chaired the
first meeting of the Democratization Commission in Astana. All
registered political parties were invited to send
representatives, except the recently-registered opposition party
True Ak Zhol. Most opposition representatives did not attend,
however. Nazarbayev laid out priority issues for the Commission
to address, including strengthening the legislative branch,
tackling corruption, and creating greater government
transparency. Based on press accounts, it appears that other
participants were not given the opportunity to speak during the
opening session. Nazarbayev appointed State Secretary Oralbay
Abdykarimov as his deputy, to deal with day-to-day management of
the Commission staff and to organize periodic meetings in Astana
and the regions. END SUMMARY

SCOPE AND COMPOSITION OF THE COMMISSION

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2. (SBU) On March 24, President Nazarbayev chaired the
long-awaited first meeting of the Democratization Commission in
Astana, formally known as the "State Commission on Drafting and
Elaborating the Democratic Reform Program." The government
invited representatives from registered opposition movement For
A Just Kazakhstan (FJK) and from 11 of 12 currently registered
political parties: the Agrarian Party, Ak Zhol, Asar, Aul, the
Civic Party, the Communist Party of Kazakhstan (CPK),the
Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan (CPPK),the Democratic
Party of Kazakhstan (DPK),Otan, the Patriot Party, and
Rukhaniyat. Commission staff reported that although True Ak Zhol
was registered on March 21, the Commission was not able to
prepare an invitation for the party in time. Of the invited
opposition groups, only Ak Zhol's Baimenov participated; the
Communist party and For a Just Kazakhstan declined. (Reftel
reports their reasons, primarily unresolved questions about the
Sarsenbaiuly murder and the structure and true purpose of the
Commission.) Most parties sent their chairmen as
representatives. Asar leader Dariga Nazarbayeva did not attend,
however, sending another party leader in her place. Nazarbayev,
the chairman of the Commission, appointed State Secretary
Oralbay Abdykarimov as his deputy. Abdykarimov is to hold
periodic meetings of the Commission, to organize its meetings in
the regions, and to deal with routine issues of the Commission.
Nazarbayev did not indicate how frequently he planned to
participate in future meetings.


3. (U) In his opening remarks, President Nazarbayev outlined his
priorities for democratic development: strong basic political
institutions; effective interaction among the branches of
government; public accountability for government operations; a
strong, independent Parliament; and a more active role for
political parties. Nazarbayev acknowledged that the government
should report to the people and that corruption within the
government remains a problem. Nazarbayev said that the structure
of executive power should be changed to provide for greater
public accountability of government agencies and institutions.
Implementation of e-government could become a tool to reduce
corruption and increase transparency and access to services.
Nazarbayev said that democratic reforms should move forward in
spite of any internal threats or social conflicts.

STRENGTHENING THE ROLE OF PARLIAMENT

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4. (U) Reiterating themes he has raised over the past year,
Nazarbayev asked the Commission to strengthen the role of
Parliament and increase the independence and accountability of
local governments. Parliament should participate in the
formation of the cabinet, which is currently chosen by the
President. Nazarbayev asked the Commission to consider
increasing the number of parliamentarians in both chambers, a
change that would require a constitutional amendment. He stated
that the administration is preparing a draft law, "On Local
Self-government," that is expected to be presented to the
Parliament in the next few months. Nazarbayev also noted that
preparations are underway for the election of district (raiyon)
akims this year; currently, district akims are selected by the
President or by the akim of the oblast, the intermediate
administrative level of government.

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MANAGED CHANGE

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5. (U) Nazarbayev also returned to his often-expressed mantra
that social reforms and the construction of a democratic society
must take into account "our traditional values." Liberalization
of the political system should be balanced with the efficiency
of the government. He reiterated concerns that economic
development and prosperity should not be overrun by democratic
changes. "The world has witnessed more than one incident when
'recipes' were automatically planted in unprepared soil and
yielded results contrary to those expected," warned Nazarbayev.
He cited India, Brazil, and Argentina as examples of countries
widely recognized as democratic, but where a substantial part of
the population suffers from poverty. Other countries seen as far
from democratic, such as China and the nations of Southeast
Asia, had managed to achieve rapid economic growth and
prosperity. "It is to the experience of these latter countries
that we often refer," added Nazarbayev.


6. (U) Based on press accounts, it appears that the other
participants were not given the opportunity to speak during the
opening session. Kazakhstani human rights defender Yevgeniy
Zhovtis strongly criticized the format of the Commission in
public comments on March 27. Zhovtis called for all political
forces to be invited, including opposition parties, influential
social organizations, and prominent public figures. Underscoring
Nazarbayev's responsibility to work with all citizens, not just
those who voted for him, Zhovtis called for true dialogue and a
search for compromise. He rejected a majority voting approach.

NEXT STEPS

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7. (U) The President tasked his administration with preparing a
work schedule for the Commission within a month. The Cabinet
will provide the Commission's operating budget, which will be
administered by the Ministry of Culture, Information and Sports.
(Note: This ministry was split into two new ministries on March
27: the Ministry of Culture and Information and the Ministry of
Tourism and Sport. Although it has not been announced, the
Ministry of Culture and Information is expected to assume
budgetary responsibility for the Commission. End note.)


8. (U) On March 28, Deputy Chair Oralbay Abdykarimov held a
press briefing in Almaty to elaborate on plans for addressing
the priority issues identified by Nazarbayev. Underscoring the
importance of consistency in political reforms, he stated,
"There should be no haste in making changes in the Constitution.
The Commission should begin with changes in those laws that do
not require amendments into the Constitution." According to
Abdykarimov, he invited all members of the Commission to send
proposals for prioritization of those political reforms that the
President had outlined. Prioritization of reform was crucial to
the Commission's success, Abykarimov noted, citing the
experience of the previous Democracy Commission, which put
together a program of political reforms with seven major
directions, "but if we move in all (these) directions
simultaneously we will bring the country to chaos."


9. (U) In response to a question, Abdykarimov told the press
that all political parties were invited to the first meeting of
the Commission, except opposition party True Ak Zhol, which he
said was not formally registered until the day before the
meeting of the Commission. Abdykarimov stated that True Ak Zhol
would be invited to join the Commission and send representatives
to all future meetings. Abdykarimov also commented that though
unregistered political movements cannot participate formally in
the Commission, they are free to contribute their proposals on
various issues related to political reforms.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Nazarbayev has laid out an ambitious agenda
for the Democratization Commission. Engaging the opposition in
the work of the Commission, particularly in the wake of the
Sarsenbaiuly murder, is a must, and will be a challenge.
Abdykarimov's promise to include True Ak Zhol in future meetings
and his offer to accept contributions from unregistered
political movements may provide an opening for small

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confidence-building steps that Post will encourage all parties
to pursue. The key to the organization's success or failure will
be whether organizers can convince participants that it is a
forum where they can express their views and be heard publicly,
not just a venue for Nazarbayev photo ops. END COMMENT.
TRACY