GSE SUDAN MEDIATOR OFFERS VIEWS ON POSSIBLE DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000956

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV ER SU
SUBJECT: GSE SUDAN MEDIATOR OFFERS VIEWS ON POSSIBLE DARFUR
MEDIATION AND ESPA PROGRESS

REF: A. ASMARA 933 B. ASMARA 940

Classified By: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador met with Yemane Ghebreab, PFDJ
head of Political Affairs and GSE mediator for Sudan, on
November 14 to discuss his recent visit to Khartoum, plans
for a potential Eritrean mediation on Darfur and the
outcome of the Eastern Front consultative conference in
Rubda. Ghebreab provided a candid assessment on the
conflicting issues surrounding a Darfur mediation. He
reaffirmed the GSE's willingness to play a role in
resolving the crisis in Darfur and acknowledged that there
is still no clear timeframe, agenda, or structure for the
talks. Ghebreab also discussed the internal divisions
within the Eastern Front which are hindering the
formulation of the party's organizational structure and
forward movement on implementation of the Eastern Sudan
Peace Agreement (ESPA). End Summary.


2. (C) Yemane Ghebreab told the Ambassador that in his
recent meetings during the week of November 6 in Khartoum
with National Congress Party (NCP) officials that the GOS
affirmed that they want the GSE to take the lead mediating
role between the GOS and DPA non-signatories. However, the
GOS had two preconditions. First, they did not want the
international community to play a "major" role. When the
Ambassador voiced concern that the GSE also seemed
disinclined to include the international community Ghebreab
tried to reassure him that was not the case. He said that
the GSE itself was not opposed to the involvement of the
international community and that it understood that all the
non-signatories were insistent that the international
community participate. But, he said, the GSE also did not
want a future mediation to look like "the circus in Abuja."


3. (C) The other issue about which NCP officials were
concerned was Chad. While the DPA non-signatories all
believe that Chad and other regional actors must have a key
role in a future mediation, the GOS is adamantly opposed to
Chad's involvement. Ghebreab claims that the GSE has been
pushing the GOS to accept Chad in a future mediation,
arguing that without its involvement, Chad poses a threat
as a spoiler to peace in Darfur. Ghebreab said that
President Isaias had made this point to Sudan's President
Bashir recently in China during the Sino-Africa Summit and
to Idriss Deby when the two met subsequently in Libya.


4. (C) Ghebreab stated that the GSE favored a mediation
approach that would be inclusive of all non-DPA
signatories, to ensure no one is left out to undermine a
future agreement. He continued that the Justice and
Equality Movement (JEM) had to be involved to ensure they
do not pose a future threat. He also acknowledged that
while all the DPA non-signatories had accepted the GSE as a
mediator, the GSE was aware that some concerns had been
voiced. In particular, he mentioned AbdulWahid's
reservation about Asmara serving as a venue for the
mediation, preferring the mediation occur outside of
Eritrea. Ghebreab noted that a number of outstanding
issues still needed to be addressed before any mediation
process moves forward.


5. (C) The Ambassador inquired about the allegations that
several DPA non-signatories had been held in Asmara against
their wills. Ghebreab replied that all had been provided
travel documents on or about November 1 and all had been
free to travel at that time. However, the DPA non-
signatories also had made a commitment to the GSE and GOS
delegation on October 21 to be back in Asmara for pre-talks
with the GOS on November 20. AbdulWahid's and Abdul
Shafi's decision to depart Asmara at such a late date as
November 12 initially created a problem in meeting this
November 20 commitment. However, the GSE has now postponed

the November 20 meeting until all the DPA non-signatories
are able to consult in the field and return to Asmara.
(Comment: Ghebreab did not provide the new date for the
pretalks. Post's information on non-signatory travel plans
as of November 16: AbdulWahid has arrived in Europe, Abdul
Shafi is on his way to N'djamena and then Darfur and
Diraige has departed for Cairo and London. End Comment).



6. (C) Turning to the ESPA, Ghebreab stated that he had
visited Rubda November 9-11 (a border town between Sudan
and Eritrea),where the Eastern Front consultative
conference was taking place, and was frustrated with the
outcome. In essence, the consultative conference never
took place. While all of the Eastern Front parties were
present, no discussions on the structure of the
organization, nor decisions on positions were made.
Instead, the conference devolved into an internal debate
within a sub-clan of the Beja, the Hadendewa tribe.
(Comment: Emboff had been told by another Sudanese contact
that divisions had emerged between Musa Muhammed Ahmed
(Chairman of the Eastern Front),Abdulla Kuna and Ali Safi
and Suliman Bitay and Fekki Ali (formerly of the Beja
Relief Organization),the later of which did not take part
in the negotiations with the GOS. End Comment). Ghebreab
said that the GSE and other Eastern Sudan groups had
departed Rubda without any decisions being made. He hoped
that once the internal Hadendawa issues were resolved, they
would reconvene the conference.


7. (C) Comment: While the Eritreans continue to express
interest in the role of Darfur mediator, they seem well
aware of the many conflicting issues which will need to be
resolved before a process is initiated. The GSE continues
to meet with the NCP, SPLM and DPA non-signatories to iron
out their differences. Ghebreab and his delegation
departed for Khartoum again on November 15 and are rumored
to be traveling onward to Juba and possibly Darfur. Post
expects the GSE to have a clearer notion on the possibility
of mediation upon their return.


8. (C) Comment Cont'd: Post was not surprised to hear about
the internal divisions besetting the Eastern Front in
Rubda. Bitay has frequently played the part of spoiler in
the past and has even fought on behalf of the GOS forces,
including involvement in attacks around Hamesh Koreib
earlier this year. Post plans to meet with members of the
Eastern Front who have returned to Asmara to learn more
about the seriousness of these divisions and their
implications for the implementation of the ESPA. End
Comment.
DELISI