ABDUL SHAFI ALSO CLAIMS HE WILL RETURN TO DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000940

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV ER SU
SUBJECT: ABDUL SHAFI ALSO CLAIMS HE WILL RETURN TO DARFUR

REF: ASMARA 933

Classified By: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ahmed Abdul Shafi plans to depart Asmara
on November 12, to arrive in Darfur early next week in
order to take part in the SLM military commanders meeting
scheduled for November 15. He claims to be in close
contact with his commanders as well as Sharif Harir and
Khamis Abdalia Abakr. Shafi expressed skepticism about an
Eritrean-led mediation, but, absent a viable alternative,
feels the SLM could not turn down their offer to mediate.
While Shafi strongly supports participation by the
international community, in particular the U.S. and Chad,
in a mediation, he claims the DPA non-signatories would
prefer the AU not be included. End Summary.


2. (C) Shafi told Emboff on November 7 that he had been
given the green light by the GSE to return to Darfur and
consult with his commanders. His most recent travel plan
(as of November 9) is to depart Asmara on November 12 for
Nairobi. He said he is in contact with Khamis, currently
in N'djamena, who is assisting him in arranging transit
visas from Nairobi to N'djamena. He and Khamis plan to
travel together early next week from N'djamena to Darfur.


3. (C) Shafi said he had explained to the GSE that it was
imperative that he consult with the field before he made
any decision to formally unite with the National Redemption
Front (NRF) or agree to a mediation. He added that he has
been coordinating with Sharif and Khamis about the upcoming
commanders meeting, and explained that all three wanted to
achieve some unity between the splintered SLM entities. He
hoped that the meetings in Darfur would help to create one
SLM and institutionalize the movement. He commented that
both Ahmed Diraige of the NRF and Khalil Ibrahim of the
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM),were not happy about
the meeting nor the decision by their fellow DPA non-
signatories to travel to Darfur.


4. (C) Shafi refuted AbdulWahid al-Nur's statement
(reftel) that the G-19 are back in his camp. Shafi
explained that his intention in returning to Darfur was to
understand where the loyalties of the commanders currently
lie. He also wants to assess whether the military
commanders will support uniting with the JEM, want a
mediation and will accept Eritrea as a mediator. He hopes
that the meetings will inform the next steps for all the
DPA non-signatories.


5. (C) When asked about the role of Eritrea in a future
mediation between the DPA non-signatories and the GNU,
Shafi was hesitant. He said he had accepted the GSE
mediation initially, but now felt that their opposition to
a UN mission in Darfur and to an active role for the
international community in a Darfur mediation ran counter
to the interests of the Darfur people. The GSE told him in
a recent meeting that while the GSE was considering a role
for the international community in a mediation, the role
would not be a central one. Shafi fears that the GSE
would seek to exclude international participation as they
did with the Eastern Sudan negotiations. He emphasized the
need for the international community, especially the U.S.,
to play a key role in a future mediation.


6. (C) Shafi also highlighted the need for Chad to play a
role in a Darfur mediation, even co-mediate, to ensure they
do not pose a threat as a spoiler to a renewed process.
However he doubted that either the GNU or the GSE would
accept them as a co-mediator. He stated that some of his
supporters had been approached by Nigeria about coming back
to Abuja, and while they were considering it, nothing had
been decided officially. Finally, Shafi said he had
spoken with Sam Ibok last week. While he did not provide
the details of the conversation, he commented that he, as
well as the other DPA non-signatories, would "prefer the AU
not play a role in a mediation."


7. (C) Comment: Shafi seems intent on returning to Darfur
to consult with military commanders and coordinate with
Sharif and Khamis regarding the future of the SLM and DPA
non-signatories as well as a way forward on a Darfur
mediation. In general, over the past few months, he has
been the least inclined to abandon the SLM organization or
falter under pressure from the GSE. Moreover, he appears
to be the most cautious about a possible GSE led mediation,
recognizing the need of the international community in any
future process. End Comment.
DELISI